HorseCenter: Ky. Derby, Oaks top picks, suggested wagers

Just days away from the most exciting two minutes in sports, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman continue their coverage of Kentucky Derby 2025 in this new HorseCenter. 

The $5 million run for the roses is the singular race that everybody wants to win, and this year’s field features a deep and talented group of 19 colts and one gelding racing for immortality at Churchill Downs. Journalism, a streaking son of Curlin based in Southern California, appears to be a deserving favorite in the first leg of the Triple Crown, but no favorite has won the 1 1/4-mile classic since Justify in 2018.

Packed with important races on Friday and Saturday, the weekend of racing under the fabled twin spires is much more than the Kentucky Derby. Topping the list supporting the big one will be the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks. 

Contested on Friday at a distance of 1 1/8 miles, the Grade 1 race for 3-year-old fillies is the female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby. The unbeaten Good Cheer should be a big favorite among a field of 14 for the Oaks. Let’s get to analysis, top picks and suggested wagers from Matt and Brian for the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks.

Brian: It’s the weekend we all look forward to during the long, cold months of the winter, Matt. The Kentucky Derby is finally here, but let’s let the ladies go first. This year’s Kentucky Oaks conversation has to begin with the undefeated filly from the Brad Cox barn, Good Cheer. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has run six times, and she has been an easy winner in all six. Drawn to the 11 post on Friday, she is strictly the one to beat. 

Good Cheer is proven over the main track at Churchill Downs and she has won on a wet track, which could be important according to the weather forecast. As many positives as she brings to the table, it would be very hard to leave her off tickets. On the other hand, her short odds while taking on a number of very talented fillies makes me think that she is not a single.

Matt: Brad Cox will be going for his third victory in the Oaks with Good Cheer. Kentucky Derby weekend draws more casual fans to wager on the horses than any other time during the year. Here we have an impressive undefeated filly who has a big-name trainer. The morning line says 6-5, and I believe that she will be every bit of that short price.

This will be her first try in a Grade 1 race in a field with 11 fillies who had at least one victory in a Kentucky Oaks qualifier. Further, in her six races Good Cheer faced only three horses who made it to the run for the lilies. So at very short odds she will face the strongest field of the year in this division. She is the horse to beat and I will not be unhappy if she does win, but I just can’t take the short odds.

Brian: I respect several fillies in the field, including Simply Joking, La Cara, Tenma and Ballerina d’Oro, but the two I believe have the best chance to pull off the upset in the Oaks are Quietside and Take Charge Milady.

Quietside has been all class from day one, easily winning her career debut at Saratoga last summer. The daughter of Malibu Moon has run against the very best ever since. She can handle an off track, and I am not worried about her far outside post. The run to the first turn will allow her to settle in on the outside and behind the early speed. Her last two are her best yet, and her recent works are sharp. It’s all systems go for the Johnny Ortiz-trained filly.

Matt: As I mentioned before, there are plenty of excellent alternatives to the favorite. Nine of the fillies come to the Oaks with a victory in their most recent start. These 3-year-olds are talented and in excellent form.

At the top of my list of Oaks contenders are Quietside, La Cara and Tenma. Quietside is in the best form of her career. Her victories in the Honeybee (G3) and the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn were very similar as she earned the top two speed figures of her career. La Cara is the best of the speed horses, is one of only two Grade 1 winners in the field, and she has been drawing rave reviews in the morning. Tenma won three points preps for the Oaks in California with stalking trips for three-time Oaks winner Bob Baffert.

Brian: With the strong speed of Simply Joking, La Cara and Five G in the big field, I do not think it will be a repeat of last year when Thorpedo Anna took them gate to wire. Instead, I think this edition of the Kentucky Oaks will be won from off the lead. If a filly comes from well back to win, I see Take Charge Milady as the top candidate. 

For whatever reason, I believe her Honeybee (G3) flop was a race to be thrown out. Her other three races this year are outstanding. With a very nice workout over the track, I expect another good effort. Given a better pace scenario than what she saw in the Ashland (G1), she should be rolling in the stretch.

Matt: Some handicappers might look at post position 14 as a negative for Quietside, but not me. Breaking from the outside is going to put her mid-pack in the early going, and that is where you want to be in this running of the Oaks, which should have a heated pace. Jockey Jose Ortiz is riding in the best form of his career after winning the jockey title at the recently concluded Fair Grounds meeting. The morning-line odds of 8-1 on Quietside seem to be unlikely, but I would be happy to get 5-1 or 6-1 on her as my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks.

Brian: Matt, it’s time to talk Kentucky Derby and there is plenty to talk about. When I saw Journalism win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December, I said I think I have my Derby horse. A smooth-striding son of Curlin, he has done nothing to make me believe otherwise. He has multiple gears, and I really liked the way he overcame a bad situation on the turn of the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The distance on Saturday should only help him overcome any traffic concerns. 

As for the connections of Journalism, Michael McCarthy and Umberto Rispoli might not be household names yet, but I have ultimate belief in both. It’s never easy to defeat 19 other horses in the Derby, but I do believe this is the horse with the best chance to get the job done. I don’t love betting the favorite in this big field, but I think there still will be plenty of value to be found here. He will not be anywhere near as low as Good Cheer is in the Oaks.

Matt: Nothing happened on the Derby trail that made me question the credentials of Journalism. He kept on winning and did everything that an elite 3-year-old needs to do. He got a great post-position draw, which minimizes the chance of a troubled trip. Trainer Mike McCarthy already has had plenty of success and is one of those guys who is soft-spoken and quiet. But at Churchill Downs, he bubbled over with excitement when he talked about Journalism.

Brian: I have decided on Burnham Square as my top long shot on Saturday. He has experience and has progressed nicely for trainer Ian Wilkes through a solid campaign this year. Wilkes is one of my favorite trainers in getting a horse to peak for a big race. 

I think the Churchill Downs track and the race setup, with plenty of speed, will be to the liking of the son of Liam’s Map. I love his recent work over the track, and I like the confidence factor with the local rider Brian Hernandez Jr. having won the Derby last year. I am expecting very good value on a horse I expect to run well.

Matt: There are five or six long shots who piqued my interest in the last months. Both of Steve Asmussen’s horses are noteworthy. The maiden Publisher made a big improvement in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when the blinkers came off, and he got very positive training reports at Churchill Downs. Tiztastic turned in the best performance of his career when he won the Louisiana Derby (G2). That Fair Grounds Derby prep race has been one of the most productive recently with its 9 1/2-furlong distance.

Brian: Spreading the Kentucky Derby in both vertical and horizontal wagers is a strategy that has served me well over the years, and I will do it again in 2025. I believe we have passed the point of underestimating the quality of dirt racing in Japan, and I believe Luxor Café is a good one. Getting better with each start, he should make his presence known on Saturday and will be one of my five to use. 

I am expecting a strong early pace in this year’s Derby, and that makes me like the late runners more than the speed types. Sovereignty and Final Gambit fit that bill nicely. The former is a must-use in the exotics. He is all class for trainer Bill Mott and is a beautiful horse. He has a strong win over the track and should be ready to fire in his third start of the year. The latter will be a big price, but I love the way he is finishing off his races. He will be passing horses down the Churchill stretch.

Matt: I’m not as sold on the Japanese horses as you have been in recent years, Brian. I just find it difficult to evaluate the quality of the competition they face especially when they are leaving Japan for the first time. Luxor Café was visually impressive in his most recent victory and has four victories in a row. But he most likely will be bet heavily and will go off at odds well short of his 15-1 morning-line odds. Last year Forever Young was the 7-1 third choice in the Derby. I plan on using Journalism in my usual Derby trifecta wager, so it is troublesome to include Luxor Cafe as an underlay.

I agree with you that Sovereignty is a horse who has to be respected in the Derby, and he is likely to be the second choice in the wagering and could be a bit higher than his 5-1 morning line odds.

Brian: With the low odds of Good Cheer, I want to look elsewhere for my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks, and I do like both Quietside and Take Charge Milady. Of the two, I like the former better for the top spot. I like her experience, class, versatility and recent form. She never has been better. Also, I have some concern about Take Charge Milady and her hoof abscess. Quietside is my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks.

Matt: One of my favorite wagers of the weekend is the two-day daily double with the Oaks and the Derby. It is a once-a-year opportunity for American bettors to combine a 14-horse field with a 20-horse field in a daily double.

The favorite won the Derby six years in a row from 2013 to 2018, and in that period the $2 Oaks-Derby daily double payouts ranged from $11.40 to $621.40.

Brian: Although I will have plenty of opportunity to connect with horses with great odds in the Kentucky Derby, I still see value in Journalism. With all the interesting betting options in the race, I don’t believe he will drift below 3-1 or 5-2, and that is good value for the horse I definitely like the best. I believe the winner of four straight is the best horse and will have a great chance to win, barring bad luck. Journalism is my top pick in the Kentucky Derby.

Matt: I do not bet the Kentucky Derby in the win, place and show pools. It is just too hard to bet successfully in those wagers. Journalism is my top pick but betting him at 5-2 or 3-1 in the win pool is not for me. I want to use him in the vertical and horizontal wagers to try to get a more generous payout.

At the beginning of the points era in 2013, the winning favorite in the Derby produced $2 trifecta payouts ranging from $173.40 in 2016 when Nyquist was the winner to $16,594.40 the following year with Always Dreaming.