Previewing the Breeders' Cup Race-By-Race

    My apologies for failing to provide analyses for the last two races yesterday.  I was experiencing some computer problems that have been tenuously resolved.  No matter, it's Breeders' Cup day!

BC Juvenile Turf

    I don’t have a strong opinion on this race, but based on the European exacta in the Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday (France over Ireland), I am looking east once again.  It must be noted, however, that the three European horses I am about to discuss were all bred in Kentucky. 
    Aiden O’Brien says his “Henry”, 3 GEORGE VANCOUVER (by Henrythenavigator) should like the firm going.  He has run second and third in two Group 1 races over his six-race career in Ireland, France, and Britain.  His two best efforts in Europe came over firm turf: his maiden win and close second in the Prix Morny.  That maiden win is the only victory of his career and he does add an extra furlong today, but George Vancover has a good shot at 8-1 coming up from the rear of the pack.
    2 ARTIGIANO has run four straight Group 2 races in Britain and looks like another dangerous horse.  He has also raced six times, caught a lot of good turf, and has only a maiden win to show for it.  The maiden win, however, was over good-to-firm turf - the quickest surface he has seen.  Artigiano has posted improving Timeform figures each race and could step forward yet again from off the pace.  8-1 once again.
    6 DUNDONNELL has been favored in his last three, stepping up from maiden to Group 2, and is half a length from three wins in a row.  This colt broke his maiden by a dominant 12 lengths and has been running on some firmer turf than the other two Euros.  In that maiden victory, he ran the odd distance of 7 3/4 furlongs at Lingfield.  Another who will sit off the pace, Dundonnell may have arguably better back form, but has less experience and a shorter price (4-1) than the two aforementioned entries.
    As for the domestic horses, I saw 7 BROWN ALMIGHTY break his maiden at first asking in a tough spot this summer.  He has a bad trip last time and has the right to run better here.  He should be prominent throughout and has shown some grit.  8 BALANCE THE BOOKS beat Brown Almighty last out.  This runner comes from the clouds and won his last two by a neck and a nose.  All of his career starts have been at 8.5f and one wonders if he will have enough distance here.  9 NOBLE TUNE may be the primary U.S. threat.  He has only run twice but very well, winning the G3 Pilgrim under a hand ride.  This horse could be very good.

    I will likely box the Euros in some way, odds-dependent, and use all three in muti-race wagers.

BC Filly & Mare Sprint

    9 GROUPIE DOLL needs no introduction.

    10 SWITCH is not a horse I like to bet, but she has been facing some tough company lately, including Ladies’ Classic third-place finisher Include Me Out.  I would not consider this mare a good win candidate, but she could function as a nice price in third, or even second. 
    Defending champion 8 MUSICAL ROMANCE is not a horse I usually bet, but she did beat the inimitable Groupie Doll this year in the Inside Information.  That was the Doll’s last loss.  It is so difficult to win these BC races back-to-back that I don’t see Musical Romance doing so, but she must be used if you bet intra-race exotics and could be considered for multi-race wagers with everybody using GD.
    1 TEDDY’S PROMISE is an interesting entry.  She has not run on dirt since doing so at the beginning of the year at Santa Anita.  Both of those races were G1’s and she beat Include Me Out in the La Brea.  It is odd that she enters this race off a fourth place start on the downhill turf, but she may just love being back and run a big one today over a course where she holds a G1 victory.

    Yeah, I’ll single the Doll in a cheap pick-4, but I’m going to back her up with Musical Romance and a little Teddy’s Promise.

Early Pick 4:

2, 3, 6 \ 9 \ 3, 6, 7 \ 1, 11, 12