Taking a Look at Keeneland Opening Weekend Stakes

On numerous occasions, I have visited Keeneland during its off-season, wandering through the barns and grandstand and standing along the rail during morning works. It is a place where I could spend hours exploring and never become bored with it, admiring the stone structures, ivy-covered walls, tree-lined paddock and of course, the stunning racetrack itself.

Although I have fallen head over heels for Keeneland, I have yet to attend the races there. However, that will change this weekend. For the first time, I will visit the Lexington, Ky. track during its racing season – and for perhaps its best one yet. While I will be unable to attend the Breeders’ Cup this year, I am very much looking forward to attending opening weekend at Keeneland – also known as Fall Stars Weekend for its abundance of graded stakes that attract top caliber Thoroughbreds.

With the Breeders’ Cup just four weeks away, many of the nation’s top horses – as well as a few foreign shippers – are making their final preparations for the world championships, making for competitive fields in each of Keeneland’s stakes races this weekend. I have listed my top four selections for each of Keeneland’s opening weekend graded stakes, as well as a handful of longshot plays.

Here's to hoping the weather is better than what the forecast predicts!

$150,000 WOODFORD STAKES PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SELECT (GIII)
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Race 5 – Post Time 3:25 PM – 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)

This is a very competitive race in which I can envision nearly any of the entrants emerging a winner. It was difficult to narrow it down to my top selections among this full field of fourteen, which includes two-time Woodford winner Havelock and Royal Ascot hero Undrafted.

1. Shore Runner (#3): Entering this race off a four-race win streak, which includes a pair of stakes wins at Saratoga, Shore Runner is having the best season of his life. The More Than Ready gelding has an explosive turn of foot and has defeated numerous runners in this field in his past few starts. The large field may be to his disadvantage, but with a clean trip, he could come flying down the lane.

2. Undrafted (#5): Best known for capturing the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot in June, Undrafted made his first start since that international outing last out in the More Than Ready Mile Stakes – in which he finished second. A top effort from him will make things difficult for his opponents.

3. Mongolian Saturday (#2): This Any Given Saturday gelding has never won at the stakes level, but has been just inches away from graded stakes glory. Last out, he was beaten only a nose when a game second in the Turf Monster Handicap (gr. III) at Parx. Prior to that, he took a turf sprint at the allowance level at Arlington over a field that included Hogy and Mongol Bull – both of which are in the Woodford. He is as gritty as they come.

4. Holy Lute (#13): Winner of Del Mar’s Green Flash Handicap, Holy Lute has certainly found his niche as a turf sprinter. Last out, he was runner-up in the Kentucky Downs Turf Dash Stakes, where he finished full of run only to be caught in the final stages. Don’t discount him.

Longshot Play – Amelia’s Wild Ride (#4): This four-year-old has not had the best of luck this year, receiving tough trips that have kept him from emerging victorious in his past few starts. His last win came in May, when he defeated outstanding turf runner Ben’s Cat in a stakes at Penn National.

$250,000 THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES (GII)
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Race 6 – Post Time 4:00 PM – 6 Furlongs

A race that has proven to be very influential on the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I), this year’s TCA has attracted the likes of last year’s Eclipse Champion Female Sprinter and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner, Judy the Beauty, and last year’s TCA winner, Leight Court.

1. Judy the Beauty (#3): The champion has started only twice this year and is winless in those pair of starts. Judy the Beauty was beaten only a neck when running second in the Humana Distaff Stakes (gr. I) in her first start of the year, but was left nearly five lengths behind when finishing third in the Honorable Miss Handicap (gr. II) at Saratoga last out. She is undefeated at Keeneland but although she has not had a start over the new dirt surface, she has been training well for owner/trainer Wesley Ward. On class alone, she is the best of this group.

2. Leigh Court (#5): Although she has not won since she took this race last year, Leigh Court did not return to the races until July of this year. Since then, she has finished second in a pair of graded stakes – beaten just ¾ of a length in each of those starts. She is a classy mare and has a good chance of defending her title.

3. Spelling Again (#6): Entering off of a pair of wins, Spelling Again was most recently a game winner of the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill Downs, which was her stakes debut. This is obviously the toughest test of her career to date, but she is an improving filly.

4. Fioretti (#7): Last out, Fioretti was second – beaten a half-length – in the Groupie Doll Stakes (gr. III) at Ellis Park. Prior to that, she was victorious in the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill. Although she had a pair of off-the-board finishes against stakes company prior to that, Fioretti appears to be on the rise.

$400,000 FIRST LADY STAKES (GI)
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Race 7 – Post Time 4:35 PM – 1 Mile (Turf)

This race has drawn a very tough field of classy female turf runners with top competitors from North America and Europe. Featuring one of the best groups of opening weekend, this edition of the First Lady should be one to remember.

1. Tepin (#11): The Mark Casse charge has been on fire this year, winning three races in a row this spring – including the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II) and the Just a Game Stakes (gr. I) – before finishing second in both the Diana Stakes (gr. I) and the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. II). Tepin was very narrowly beaten in each of these and remains one of the top female turf runners in the nation.

2 Easter (IRE) (#5): One of two Aidan O’Brien trainees sired by Galileo, Easter arrives in Kentucky off of a runner-up effort in the Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies' Stakes (Ire-III). She has been very busy this year, having had six starts between now and the beginning of August. Her highlight of the year thus far is a two-length score in the Hurry Harriet Stakes at Gowran Park.

3. Outstanding (IRE) (#7): This will be this Galileo filly’s second American start, as she shipped to New York earlier this summer to be third behind the outstanding Lady Eli and Grade 1 winner Sharla Rae in the Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (gr. I). She then returned to the British Isles, but she did not have much success there, finishing off-the-board in three consecutive group stakes. Most recently, she indicated improvement with a third-place finish behind Jack Naylor and Easter.

4. Crowley’s Law (IRE) (#1): The daughter of Dubawi last ran just two weeks ago, but she is used to a busy schedule and has done well with quick turnarounds in the past. Her first start on American turf came in her last start, in which she finished a good third behind Recepta in the Noble Damsel Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont. Prior to that, she finished second or third in a superfecta of stakes in Europe, including a runner-up finish in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Eng-III).

$500,000 CLAIBORNE BREEDERS’ FUTURITY STAKES (GI)
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Race 8 – Post Time 5:10 PM – 1 1/16 Miles

Although many of these two-year-olds do not have many accomplishments to their credit, many of them are full of potential and with a top performance here, could put themselves in the running for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and earn themselves a place on Derby lists. Topping the field is Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) winner Exaggerator and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) runner-up Rated R Superstar.

1. Exaggerator (#7): The morning line favorite enters this race off a ¾-length score in the Saratoga Special last out. Exaggerator will be stretching out beyond 6 ½ furlongs for the first time here, but as a son of red-hot sire Curlin, the distance should not be a problem. His previous performances suggest he is the fastest of this group.

2. Sheikh of Sheikhs (#8): Trainer Wesley Ward sends out this son of Discreetly Mine off a win in the colt’s debut at Saratoga, in which he won by an easy 1 ¾ lengths. The colt showed plenty of speed in that start and if he’s given the lead here, he may be tough to catch.

3. Uncle Vinny (#12): Although he has not won since his debut in May, this Todd Pletcher charge has proven to be a quality runner, showing up at Keeneland off a pair of in-the-money finishes in graded stakes at Saratoga. Third last out in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I), the son of promising sire Uncle Mo will be running with blinkers for the first time.

4. Sticksstatelydude (#6): This will be this colt’s first stakes outing, but he was an impressive winner of a maiden at Saratoga last out in his second career start. It will obviously be his toughest test to date, but having jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. aboard will be an advantage.

Longshot Play – Threefiveindia (#10): This son of Street Hero has only raced once, winning a maiden special weight by two lengths at Ellis Park. This will be a huge step up for him, but if you are willing to take a shot, this one may be worth a look.

$1,000,000 SHADWELL TURF MILE STAKES (GI)
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Race 9 – Post Time 5:45 PM – 1 Mile (Turf)

Keeping up with the theme of a tough field in which I can envision many outcomes, the Shadwell Turf Mile may be missing recently retired two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, but it certainly did not come up light. Featuring runners like European talent Dutch Connection and Arlington Million (gr. I) winner The Pizza Man, this race offers many betting options and should make for an exciting finish.

1. Dutch Connection (GB) (#5): This three-year-old colt has had an outstanding year in Europe, winning the Jersey Stakes (Eng-III) at Royal Ascot prior to two narrowly beaten runner-up efforts in both the Prix Jean Prat (Fr-I) and the Qatar Lennox Stakes (Eng-II). In that latter start, he finished behind superstar Toormore. Expect a big run from him.

2. The Pizza Man (#10): Midwest Thoroughbreds’ six-year-old gelding has had the best year of life this year, having won all three of his starts this year. After a win in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs, the son of English Channel was a game winner of both the Stars and Stripes Stakes (gr. III) and Arlington Million. In that latter start, he finished ahead of Big Blue Kitten, who last weekend was an impressive winner of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont. He will be shortening up here, but is certainly capable of winning at middle distances.

3. Grand Arch (#4): Winner of the Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II) over Saratoga’s turf last out, Grand Arch certainly has an affinity for Keeneland’s turf course. He won an allowance here in April and was second behind Wise Dan in this race last year.

4. Heart to Heart (#6): This quick son of English Channel has not raced in two months, but last out, he took the Oceanport Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth on the Haskell undercard. Although he has been a bit inconsistent as of late, he is tough to beat when he is at the top of his game.

$250,000 DIXIANA BOURBON STAKES (GIII)
Sunday, Oct. 4 – Race 8 – Post Time 5:10 PM – 1 1/6 Miles (Turf)

Like the Breeders’ Futurity, the Bourbon has attracted a field of juveniles prepared to prove themselves. Having drawn a full field of horses full of potential, this race is wide open.

1. Hot Ore (#11): Shipping in from Southern California, Hot Ore did not break his maiden until his third start but has never finished worse than third in four career starts. Last out, he was a good second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes. He appears to be among the fastest of these.

2. Airoforce (#13): Mark Casse certainly knows how to win with turf runners and this one appears very promising. The son of Colonel John has proven to be quick and is training well for this race. This may be his big chance to prove himself as a top runner.

3. Uncle Brennie (#1): One of only two stakes winners in this field, this son of Uncle Mo enters this race off of a win in the Sunday Silence Stakes at Louisiana Downs last out. Prior to that, he was an Ellis Park maiden winner in his second career start. Although this is a step up, this is a talented colt who knows how to win.

4. Siding Spring (#8): Another Kentucky Downs debut winner being sent by Casse, this colt’s six-length win in his debut last out at Kentucky Downs gave his connections enough confidence to jump into graded stakes company. He could run big.

Longshot Play – Tequila Joe (#12): Although his speed ratings are lower than most of his opponents, this son of Stormy Atlantic was an easy winner of his debut at Del Mar last out. Look for a good price on him.

$500,000 JUDDMONTE SPINSTER STAKES (GI)
Sunday, Oct. 4 – Race 9 – Post Time 5:45 PM – 1 1/8 Miles

1. Got Lucky (#4): The daughter of A.P. Indy was fifth in this race as a three-year-old last year, but this year, she enters off of a much better season. Second behind the very talented Sheer Drama last out in the Personal Ensign Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, Got Lucky was a runaway winner in both the Lady’s Secret Stakes and Molly Pitcher Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth this summer. Todd Pletcher will have her primed and ready.

2. Frivolous (#9): An eight-length winner of the Locust Grove at Churchill Downs last out, Frivolous played runner-up to Sheer Drama in the Delaware Handicap (gr. I) in her start prior to that. She won the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II) at Churchill in June, but prior to that, was very inconsistent and had several off-the-board finishes. However, she is on the improve.

3. Untapable (#3): Last year’s Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Filly has not returned to the same outstanding form, but she nevertheless has had a good season. Her only win this season came in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in April and since then, she has been second or third in a trio of graded stakes. Last out, she was third in the Personal Ensign behind Sheer Drama and Got Lucky. She’ll need to turn in her best effort since April in order to win, but she certainly stands out in terms of class.

4. Lovely Maria (#1): This year’s Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) winner has not won since that classic victory and in fact, she has not even finished in-the-money. Entering here off well-beaten efforts in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and Delaware Oaks (gr. III), she will need to return to her old form in order to be victorious here.