2014 Kentucky Derby Hopeful: Cairo Prince

The road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) has begun. Each week, more and more Derby lists, displaying rankings of potential Derby horses, are shared by racing enthusiasts and turf writers. We are in all in a pursuit to find the next Derby winner, to zone in on the horse that will stand in glory at Churchill Downs with a garland of roses draped over his or her shoulders. There are few declarations prouder than “I picked the Derby winner.”

Many have rested their hopes upon Cairo Prince, recent winner of the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park. The dark gray colt made quite the impression as a two-year-old, but his first performance as a three-year-old left the racing world enthusing about the colt with the vision of red roses in mind. More than three months remain until the Kentucky Derby and as we all know, many things can change before then. However, should Cairo Prince maintain the brilliance he has displayed and perhaps even improve upon it while remaining healthy and sound, he will be a fierce competitor on the first Saturday in May.

Racing Performances

Cairo Prince debuted in early October 2013, facing four adversaries in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park. Primed for a top effort, the son of Pioneerof the Nile prompted the pace early on before gaining an early lead after a half mile. Turning for home, the colt began to kick clear, holding his own as he drew away to win by 2 ¾ lengths.

This win gave his connections enough confidence to send him to the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct a month later. Taking on eleven competitors, Cairo Prince rated rather than pursuing the lead, settling just behind the pacesetters while racing wide down the backstretch. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee remained relaxed as he galloped to the outside of rivals before beginning to inch closer to the front as the backstretch began to surrender to the far turn.

Cairo Prince gained a narrow advantage outside the quarter pole before suddenly kicking clear, lengthening his lead as he charged into the homestretch several lengths ahead. The margin by which he led only widened as he galloped down the lane. Although closing efforts made by Financial Mogul and Noble Moon cut into this lead, the colt crossed the wire an easy 2 ½ lengths in front.

The toughest test of Cairo Prince’s career to date came in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct at the end of November. Assigned the highest weight in the field, Cairo Prince carried 122 pounds, whereas the rest of the field toted just 116 or 117 pounds. Among his competitors was the heavy favorite, Honor Code, an impressive Saratoga maiden winner and runner-up in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Breaking sharply from the outside, Cairo Prince was forced to race widest of all into the first turn as he contentedly settled several lengths behind the leader. The colt continued to be relaxed down the backstretch, steadily remaining in third as longshot Master Lightning set dawdling fractions.

As Honor Code drew even with Master Lightning around the far turn, Cairo Prince commenced his rally on the outside. Outside the quarter pole, Honor Code seized the lead, but Cairo Prince was full of run and, at the top of the stretch, the gray colt accelerated to become even with Honor Code despite changing leads belatedly. Within the final furlong, Cairo Prince stole the lead from the favorite, beginning to gradually draw clear. However, with a sixteenth of a mile left to run, Honor Code resurged, battling back along the rail to get his nose in front at the wire.

Although Cairo Prince had suffered his first loss, it did not tarnish the respect with which he is regarded. He had run a winning race, only to lose narrowly to a gifted colt that had carried seven pounds less than him. The colt was sent to Florida to compete in the series of Kentucky Derby preps at Gulfstream Park, beginning with the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) on January 25. Ten other newly-turned three-year-olds aligned to challenge him in this race, going a mile and one-sixteenth over the southern Florida track. But Cairo Prince was not the only highly regarded horse in the field. Other runners included Dania Beach Stakes (gr. III) winner Mr Speaker, stakes winner and recent Churchill Downs allowance winner Conquest Titan, Nashua runner-up Financial Mogul, and promising third-place finisher in the Remsen, Wicked Strong.

Despite the depth of the field, Cairo Prince was sent off as the favorite. But even though he was the top choice to win, no one was prepared for how well he would perform. Racing wide into the first turn, Cairo Prince galloped mid-pack into the backstretch before edging closer to the vanguard, continuing to run on the outside. He continued to grow closer to the pacesetters but remained relaxed as he raced approximately two lengths behind the leader.

Entering the far turn, Cairo Prince began to gain ground on the frontrunners, rallying on the outside. As Luis Saez sat still in the saddle, Cairo Prince effortlessly rushed to the lead nearing the quarter pole, already beginning to kick clear as he led the field into the homestretch. He continued to lengthen his advantage down the lane, drawing away with ease to score by a margin of 5 ¾ lengths that made him the most talked-about horse in Thoroughbred racing for the remainder of the weekend.

Pedigree Analysis

Cairo Prince’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, made quite the impression on the Kentucky Derby trail himself in 2009. Conditioned by Bob Baffert, Pioneerof the Nile took the California path to the Derby by storm, winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) to conclude his juvenile season prior to capturing three consecutive graded stakes at Santa Anita, including the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), to prepare for the Run for the Roses. Sent off as the third choice in the Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile prompted the pace before racing front and center into the homestretch. Charging down the center of the track, he appeared to have a good chance to win, but was overtaken by 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird.

Cairo Prince is a member of Pioneerof the Nile’s first crop, which also includes River Dancer – runner-up in the mile and one-sixteenth With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) on the turf at Saratoga last summer. Clearly, Pioneerof the Nile’s offspring are too young to have yet competed at the ten-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby, so the sire has not the opportunity to prove that he is capable of producing winners at the classic distance. However, his own sire, Empire Maker was clearly able to both win at classic distances and produce classic winners.

Winner of the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at twelve furlongs, Empire Maker has produced numerous horses that have won grade/group one races at distances of ten furlongs or longer, such as Emollient, Icon Project, and Royal Delta. Empire Maker is also the sire of the talented marathoners Eagle Poise, who has won up to the distance of fourteen furlongs, and Sky Kingdom, a graded stakes winner at twelve furlongs.

Empire Maker is a son of Unbridled, thus making Cairo Prince a paternal great-grandson of the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner. Unbridled holds this same position in the pedigree of 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and is also the sire of 1996 Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, the grandsire of Mine That Bird.

Cairo Prince’s dam, Holy Bubbette, was successful as a racehorse, winning two stakes and finishing second in a graded stakes. However, each of her wins came at six furlongs. Like she did on the track, Holy Bubbette has found success as a broodmare, producing the multiple graded stakes-placed Nonna Mia – who never won beyond six and one-half furlongs – and the stakes-placed Holdin Bullets – who has won up to a mile and one-sixteenth.

Holy Bubbette is a daughter of none other than Holy Bull, 1994 Horse of the Year. Although Holy Bull failed in that year’s Kentucky Derby, finishing twelfth over a sloppy track, he proved that he was capable of winning at ten furlongs by winning the Travers Stakes (gr. I). Holy Bull himself produced a Derby winner in Giacomo, but Giacomo was among one of just a handful of Holy Bull offspring capable of winning at ten furlongs or beyond. As a broodmare sire, Holy Bull has primarily found success in producing the dams of talented sprinters, such as the graded stakes winners Dr. Zic, Judy the Beauty, and Munnings. No maternal grandson or granddaughter of Holy Bull has won a stakes race at a distance longer than nine furlongs.

While Holy Bull’s presence in Cairo Prince’s pedigree does not grant much confidence in regards to Cairo Prince’s ability to be victorious at classic distances, Cairo Prince’s tail female offers more assurance. The colt is from the same female family as champion Next Move, who won the Coaching Club American Oaks when it was contested at eleven furlongs, and two-time Horse of the Year Sarazen, who won a leg of the International Special series at ten furlongs. However, this is quite far back in the colt’s pedigree.

Although the ever-looming doubt of a Derby hopeful’s capability of winning at the Derby distance is certainly present when discussing Cairo Prince, the colt seems to boast the poise and sheer brilliance a horse needs in order to find success on the Derby trail – and in Louisville. He has clearly always been a talented colt, but he appears to be even better at three than he was at two. It is a long road to Louisville, but Cairo Prince is certainly one of the best prospects for Derby glory.