2015 Kentucky Derby Field Analysis
In this in-depth analysis of the field for 2015 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Mary Cage takes a look at the pedigree, race record, and recent training of each Derby contender. Check out the very last paragraph for her selections.
1. OCHO OCHO OCHO:
Ocho Ocho Ocho is a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. His dam, simply named Winner, is a granddaughter of the great Personal Ensign. In having that champion as his great-granddam, Ocho Ocho Ocho shares his granddam and legendary third dam with Divine Oath, a graded stakes winner at a mile and one-half.
Ocho Ocho Ocho won the first three starts of his career, including the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes – which was actually contested on dirt – and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). However, he began 2015 in finishing eighth of ten in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). He improved in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), finishing third, but was still beaten 5 ½ lengths by Carpe Diem.
Ocho Ocho Ocho’s final work for the Derby was a three-furlong blowout three days prior to the race, which he completed in a rather unimpressive 38.40.
Ocho Ocho Ocho will need to show much improvement in order to win, and his inside draw certainly is not doing him any favors.
2. CARPE DIEM:
As a son of Giant’s Causeway, distance should not be a problem for Carpe Diem. The 2000 European Horse of the Year won at ten furlongs multiple times himself and has produced many routers, including Swift Temper, winner of the Delaware Handicap (gr. I, 10F); Heatseeker, winner of Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I, 10F); and Red Giant, who set a world record for a mile and one-quarter on the turf while winning the Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship Stakes (gr. I). The Giant’s Causeway/Unbridled’s Song cross on which Carpe Diem is bred produced Dominion Day Handicap (Can-III, 10F) winner Hold Me Back.
Carpe Diem has never run a bad race in his life, kicking off his career with a maiden victory at Saratoga before dominating the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland. His juvenile campaign ended with a solid runner-up effort behind Texas Red in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Carpe Diem has started only twice thus far in 2015 but has been extraordinary in winning both the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in runaway performances.
Carpe Diem made his final work before the Derby a week before the Run for the Roses, at Keeneland. There, he breezed a half-mile in 48.60. As a striking individual to begin with, Carpe Diem has appeared very powerful in his final preparation.
There are not many negatives regarding Carpe Diem. An extremely talented and physically impressive colt, perhaps the only thing getting in Carpe Diem’s race is his tendency to have pre-race jitters and his not-so-desirable post.
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3. MATERIALITY:
Materiality is a son of Afleet Alex, the 2005 Preakness Stakes (gr. I, 9.5F) and Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) winner who has sired many progeny who have won at distances of ten furlongs or longer, including multiple Russian group one winners that have won at a mile and one-half, Travers Stakes (gr. I, 10F) winner Afleet Express, and Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. II, 14F) winner Afleet Again. Materiality’s dam, the stakes-winning sprinter Wildwood Flower, is also the dam of Gazelle Stakes (gr. II, 9F) winner My Miss Sophia. To provide Materiality with stamina support, Wildwood Flower is a daughter of Langfuhr, the sire of the 2003 Canadian Triple Crown champion Wando.
Materiality has raced only three times but has won all three of those starts. He did not debut until January, when he captured a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream by 4 ¼ lengths. Following a dominant victory in the nine-furlong Islamorada Handicap at the same track, Materiality jumped into graded stakes company in the Florida Derby (gr. I), where he conquered the favorite, Upstart.
Breezing for the final time eight days before the Derby, Materiality completed a half-mile at Churchill Downs in 48 seconds flat while working in company with stablemate Itsaknockout. Although the work was nothing to rave about, Materiality seemed comfortable with the track.
Materiality has not faced as tough of company as many of his Derby counterparts, but it cannot be negated that he is a gifted colt. However, he will have to reach a new level in order to be victorious in the Derby.
4. TENCENDUR:
Tencendur’s pedigree screams speed, as both his sire and his broodmare sire excelled as sprinters. The colt’s sire, Warrior’s Reward, reached a plateau of seven furlongs but is a son of Medaglia d’Oro, winner of the mile and one-quarter Travers Stakes (gr. I). Nonetheless, Tencendur’s broodmare sire, Hennessy, has primarily excelled in siring sprinters and producers of the same, although he did sire Inglorious, winner of the mile and one-quarter Queen’s Plate Stakes.
After breaking his maiden in his second start, Tencendur dived into graded stakes company, finishing a lackluster fourth in the Withers Stakes (gr. III). Following a dull fifth in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), he turned in an improved effort in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), finishing a clear second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I).
Tencendur’s posted a bullet work at Churchill Downs for five furlongs in 1:00 flat a week out from the Derby. However, this week was very sloppy, as he struggled to switch leads and came into contact with his workmate. Nonetheless, he seemed to get over the track well.
Between his speed-oriented pedigree and lack of spectacular racing performances, it would be quite a surprise to see Tencendur draped in the blanket of red roses.
5. DANZIG MOON:
Danzig Moon shares his sire, Malibu Moon, with 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, as well as Life At Ten – a grade one winner who won up to ten furlongs. His dam is a daughter of Danzig, who is also the broodmare sire of Strait of Dover, winner of the mile and one-quarter Queen’s Plate Stakes; Cutlass Bay, winner of the 2,100-meter (approximately a mile and two and one-half furlongs) Prix Ganay (FR-I); and Jolie’s Shinju, winner of the mile and one-quarter Singapore Derby (SING-I).
After two starts in Kentucky last October, one at Keeneland and one at Churchill, Danzig did not start again until breaking his maiden by 4 ¾ lengths at Gulfstream in February. He has since been a distant fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and a respectable third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), both behind Carpe Diem.
Danzig Moon’s past two works have come at Churchill Downs, the most recent one being a 48.80 four-furlong breeze eight days before the Derby. However, this breeze – during which he worked in company with a non-Derby stablemate – was not particularly stellar.
Danzig Moon appears outclassed here.
6. MUBTAAHIJ:
Bred in Ireland, Mubtaahij is a son of Dubawi – a multiple group one winner who excelled as a miler. Despite this, Dubawi has produced many horses who have won at a mile and one-quarter or beyond, including Dubai World Cup (UAE-I, 10F) winners Prince Bishop and Monterosso, who have both also won group stakes at a mile and one-half.
The Kentucky Derby will be Mubtaahij’s first start in North America, as –aside from his first two starts, which he made in Newmarket – the colt has spent his career in Dubai. While off-the-board in both his Newmarket starts, Mubtaahij has not finished worse than second since. He has won his past two starts by a combined 10 ½ lengths, including the UAE Derby (UAE-II) both at the distance of a mile and three-sixteenths – just one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby.
Since shipping to the United States, Mubtaahij has had two works at Arlington Park. His final work for the Derby came a week before the race when he breezed a half-mile in 49.60 over the all-weather surface at Arlington. He appears to have maintained his flesh well in the long journey over to the United States.
Horses that have shipped in from Dubai for the Run for the Roses have generally not fared very well, but this may be one of the best chances Dubai has ever had in the Kentucky Derby. An interesting note about Mubtaahij is he will be the first horse in ten years to compete in the Kentucky Derby without Lasix.
7. EL KABEIR:
El Kabeir’s sire, Scat Daddy, has sired several graded stakes winners at a mile and one-quarter, including Il Campione, Lady of Shamrock, and Princess Daddy. The colt’s dam, Great Venue, is a daughter of Unbridled’s Song – the broodmare sire of ten-furlong graded stakes winners including Better Than Ever and Hold Me Back.
El Kabeir is among the most experienced of the Derby field in terms of starts, having raced nine times. After breaking his maiden in his second start at Saratoga, he was a well-beaten fourth in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) before finishing second –beaten five lengths – in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II). Leaving New York for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs, El Kabeir acquired his first graded stakes victory, hanging on to win by a head. The colt has had a good three-year-old season in New York, winning the Jerome Stakes (gr. III) and Gotham Stakes (gr. III) with an impressive turn of foot. While finishing second in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), El Kabeir turned in respectable efforts but was no match for the winners.
Completing his final work for the Derby at his home base of Belmont, El Kabeir breezed four furlongs in a blazing 46.81. Although he will have little training at Churchill this week, he already has an all-important win over the surface.
Although El Kabeir can have a remarkable late kick, it may not be enough for this field, especially at the mile and one-quarter distance despite the fact that he likes Churchill’s surface.
8. DORTMUND:
Distance was a doubt for Dortmund’s sire, Big Brown, when he himself was being pointed toward the Derby. However, Big Brown erased these doubts with runaway victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The 2008 Champion Three-Year-Old has already sired distance runners; his son Ground Transport won the Drosselmeyer Stakes at that distance. Big Brown’s first winner, Ruby Brown, was second in the 2013 Russian Oaks (Rus. I) at a distance of 2400 meters (approximately a mile and one-half). Dortmund’s dam, Our Josephina, was a stakes-winning sprinter and while her sire, Tale of the Cat, was a successful sprinter as well, he has had success in producing the dams of distance runners. For example, he is the maternal grandsire of 2004 Derby runner-up Lion Heart and Alabama Stakes (gr. I, 10F) runner-up It’s Tricky. Intriguingly enough, Dortmund’s third dam is 1977 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Lakeville Miss, winner of the twelve-furlong Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I).
Since beginning his career in early November, Dortmund has managed to stay undefeated in six starts. After a runaway victory in his debut going six and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita, Dortmund was shipped west to Churchill Downs, where he dominated at the allowance level, completing the mile in 1:35.75 while winning by 7 ¾ lengths. Dortmund was tested for the first time in the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I), in which he outdueled Firing Line by a head. In arguably the most exciting Derby prep of the season, Dortmund commenced his three-year-old year with yet another battle against Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita, in which he displayed his resolve by digging in to defeat Firing Line after that rival passed him in the stretch. Dortmund only improved from there, showing his turn of foot with a 1 ¼-length victory in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) before romping in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) by 4 ¼ lengths.
Dortmund’s final tuning for the Derby came at Santa Anita, where he turned in his final work on April 25 – a week out from the Run for the Roses. In this drill, he completed six furlongs in 1:13.60, he covered ground effortlessly, showing off his long, powerful stride. While he will have little training over the Churchill surface this week, this should not be a problem, as he displayed an obvious affinity for the track last fall when winning easily at the allowance level.
Considering Dortmund’s constant improvement, evident tenacity, and blazing turn of foot, it is scary to think he is considered by many to be the lesser of the Baffert trainees (his stablemate, American Pharoah, is the morning line favorite). Although this is the conclusion many have reached, Dortmund may prove otherwise on Saturday.
9. BOLO:
Bolo is a son of Temple City, a horse who excelled at long distances, winning the mile and one-half Cougar II Handicap (gr. III). Bolo shares his granddam, Aspenelle, with 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, as well as Pacific Classic (gr. I, 10F) winner Dullahan.
After finishing fifth in his debut, Bolo broke his maiden in his second start before completing his juvenile year with an easy win in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. Both of his 2015 starts have resulted in third-place finishes behind Dortmund in graded stakes at Santa Anita.
Bolo’s final work for the Derby came at Santa Anita on April 24 when he worked five furlongs in 59.60. He has appeared very content in his gallops at Churchill.
The mile and one-quarter distance should not be an issue for Bolo, but if he has been unable to previously conquer Dortmund, it is unlikely that he will here.
10. FIRING LINE:
Firing Line’s sire, Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Line of David, did not fare well in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, finishing 18th of 20. However, Line of David is a son of Lion Heart, who finished second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 edition of the Run for the Roses. The dam of Firing Line, Sister Girl Blues, was a grade one-placed runner who won up to a mile and one-sixteenth. Her graded stakes-winning half-brother Mint Lane never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth, either.
After breaking his maiden in his second start, Firing Line was tested against Dortmund and Mr. Z in the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I), falling a head short to the former and a nose ahead of the latter. He commenced his three-year-old year with yet another battle against Dortmund, this time in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. III). In a thrilling stretch duel, Firing Line began to get the better of his rival, edging away in mid-stretch. However, Dortmund fought back to defeat Firing Line by a head. Leaving California for easier competition in the Sunland Derby (gr. III), Firing Line dominated by 14 ¼ lengths.
Firing Line has remained at Santa Anita for his final preparations, the most recent of which came on April 25 when he drilled five furlongs in 1:02.20 – an absolutely effortless work for him.
While Firing Line is incredibly talented and has tested Dortmund more than any other horse has to date, he has been unable to conquer Baffert’s chestnut charge and with a pedigree that may not offer him much support at the Derby distance, Firing Line may be at a disadvantage. Nonetheless, he is training very well and is among the top contenders in this field.
11. STANFORD:
Stanford’s sire, Malibu Moon, has already sired a Derby winner in 2013 victor Orb. The colt’s maternal grandsire, Distorted Humor, also produced a Derby winner in 2003 champion Funny Cide. Distorted Humor is a relatively young broodmare sire, but he is a son of Forty Niner – a Travers Stakes (gr. I, 10F) winner and broodmare sire of Delaware Handicap (gr. II, 10F) victress Island Sand.
Stanford took the leap into graded stakes company after a debut win at Monmouth Park, finishing sixth of ten in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II). He did not race again until winning at the allowance level at Gulfstream in February, after which he finished second – beaten 5 ¾ lengths by Materiality – in the Islamorada Handicap, only to be disqualified to last due to severe interference. He then shipped to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), where he finished gamely to be second by just a neck to International Star.
Stanford took to Churchill Downs’ dirt oval eight days before the Derby for his final drill, breezing a half-mile in 48.40 as he outworked stablemate Madefromlucky.
Stanford is certainly bred to get the distance, but in a field as competitive as this one, he has a tough task at hand.
12. INTERNATIONAL STAR:
Although a son of a Kentucky Derby winner himself in 2000 victor Fusaichi Pegasus, International Star's dam side is indicative of speed and shorter distances. His dam, Parlez, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and her other stakes-winning offspring, D C Dancer and Fools in Love, never won beyond six furlongs and a mile and one-sixteenth, respectively. However, (French Deputy info from Danza's). French Deputy was the damsire of last year's Derby third-place finisher, Danza.
International Star spent most of the first half of his career on the turf and synthetic, during which he captured the Grey Stakes (Can-III) on the all-weather surface at Woodbine. Although he ended his juvenile career on a poor note, finishing ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) and a well-beaten fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs, International Star has had an explosive spring in New Orleans. The colt swept the Fair Grounds’ three Derby preps, topped off by a victory in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
Making his final work before the Derby a week before the race (on April 25), International Star completed a half-mile in 50.80 over the Churchill Training Center surface. In his 1:01.80 five-furlong breeze over the actual Churchill surface a week prior, International Star appeared very content, galloping with his ears pricked as he easily outworked his workmate.
While International Star’s string of victories is certainly impressive, the manner in which he has won these races has not quite been spectacular – particularly the Louisiana Derby. In the final stages of these races, the colt has required every ounce of encouragement from his rider and has switched to the wrong lead – a sign of fatigue.
13. ITSAKNOCKOUT:
Itsaknockout’s sire, Lemon Drop Kid, won the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and is also the sire of Richard’s Kid, a multiple grade one winner who won up to a mile and one-half; Cosmonaut, a graded stakes winner at a mile and one-half; and Citronnade, a graded stakes winner at a mile and one-quarter. Itsaknockout’s multiple stakes-winning half-brother Storm Power has excelled as a miler and the colt’s broodmare sire, Cherokee Run, was known for his sprinting abilities. However, Itsaknockout’s granddam is a daughter of stamina influence Deputy Minister.
Itsaknockout began his career in December with a nose victory in a maiden at Gulfstream before beginning 2015 with a 5 ¼-length win at the allowance level. Stepping up into graded stakes company, Itsaknockout crossed the wire second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) but, due to interference on Upstart’s part, was awarded the win. He did not run as well in the Florida Derby (gr. I), finishing 21 lengths behind Materiality while coming in fourth.
Eight days prior to the Kentucky Derby, Itsaknockout completed a half-mile in 48 seconds flat in company with stablemate Materiality. While he did not seem to travel poorly over the track, he did not seem to relish it either.
It would be surprising to see Itsaknockout win here.
14. KEEN ICE:
Keen Ice is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, a multiple grade one winner at ten furlongs and the sire of Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) winner Palace Malice. Although his dam, Medomak, is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning miler Coal Play, her sire is Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F) winner Awesome Again.
Keen Ice broke his maiden in his second start last September at Churchill Downs and has not won since. He rounded out his two-year-old campaign with a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) and a third-place effort in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) before beginning 2015 with a distant fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Completing his Derby prep season in Louisiana, Keen Ice was a respectable third in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) before finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
Keen Ice has had three works at Churchill Downs since arriving in Louisville for the Derby, most recently covering five furlongs in 1:01.60 on April 25. He appeared very powerful in this work, traveling over the surface in fine fashion.
A victory by Keen Ice would certainly be an unexpected result, but he has been training very well and loves the Churchill surface.
15. FROSTED
Many have doubted the ability of offspring of Tapit like Frosted, but North America’s leading sire has produced many routers. Among them are Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) winner Tonalist; Testa Matta, who won the Japan Dirt Derby (JPN-I) at 2,000 meters (approximately 10 furlongs); and Careless Jewel, was an 11-length victress of the mile and one-quarter Alabama Stakes (gr. I). Frosted’s dam, the graded stakes-winning Fast Cookie, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth but is a daughter of Deputy Minister, who is the maternal grandsire of numerous routers, including two-time Horse of the Year Curlin and the Belmont winners Jazil, Rags to Riches, and Sarava.
Frosted has never run worse than fourth but has won just twice in seventh starts. After breaking his maiden in his third start, Frosted finished his juvenile campaign with a runner-up effort in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), in which he was beaten just a half-length. He began 2015 with a second-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II), in which Upstart crossed the wire 5 ½ lengths ahead of him. Frosted was beaten 4 ¾ lengths – finishing behind Upstart, Itsaknockout, and Frammento – when fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) but rebounded with a victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I).
Frosted has remained at Palm Meadows Training Center to prepare for the Kentucky Derby, working for the final time a week before the race as he went five furlongs in 1:01.10. He did not arrive at Churchill until Tuesday and therefore will have very little time to get acquainted with the Churchill Downs surface.
Frosted has not shown quite the same level of brilliancy as horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund, or Carpe Diem, but is clearly a talented colt. He deserves a look.
16. WAR STORY:
Although War Story’s sire, Northern Afleet, never won beyond a mile and one-eighth, he is the sire of Afleet Alex, the 2005 Preakness Stakes (gr. I, 9.5F) and Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) winner, as well as United Nations Stakes (gr. I, 11F) winner Teaks North. War Story’s dam is a daughter of Pulpit, who is also the dam sire of Real Solution, a multiple grade one winner at ten furlongs.
War Story began his career with a maiden victory at Churchill Downs before winning at the allowance level at the Fair Grounds to close out 2014. He has not won since, but ran well in each of the Fair Grounds’ Derby preps behind International Star, finishing second in both the LeComte Stakes (gr. II) and the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) before being beaten by more than 4 lengths when finishing third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
War Story’s past three works have come at Churchill Downs, most recently breezing five furlongs in 1:02 on April 22 – ten days out from the Derby. He has not been very remarkable in his morning appearances.
War Story obviously has plentiful of experience at, but may not be quite at the same level as the top contenders in the Derby.
17. MR. Z:
Yet another son of Malibu Moon, Mr. Z shares his sire with not only fellow Derby runners Danzig Moon and Stanford, but with 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. Mr. Z’s dam is a daughter of leading broodmare sire Storm Cat, who has served as the maternal grandsire of many distance runners, including Shared Belief, a multiple grade one winner at ten furlongs.
Mr. Z is easily the most experienced horse in the Derby field with twelve starts under his belt, but he has only won once and that was in his career debut at Churchill Downs last June. Following his maiden victory, Mr. Z turned in a pair of runner-up efforts against graded stakes company at Saratoga. He then returned to Churchill, where he was a distant fifth in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). A second-place finish behind Carpe Diem in the Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland preceded his fifth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I). He concluded his long juvenile campaign with two narrow losses – finishing second by a nose to Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) and third in a blanket finish behind Dortmund and Firing Line in the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I). This spring, Mr. Z put forth a pair of third-place finishes at Oaklawn – in the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) – before finishing last in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). Just two weeks later, he was third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I).
Not only does Mr. Z have two previous starts at Churchill, but he has had two recent works over the track. On April 22, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee completed five furlongs in 1:01 flat before drilling a quarter-mile blow out in 24 seconds flat four days before the race.
A win by Mr. Z would truly surprise me.
18. AMERICAN PHAROAH:
American Pharoah’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, was second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby – beaten 6 ¾ lengths by longshot Mine That Bird. Although Pioneerof the Nile have never won beyond a mile and one-eighth, he is a son of Empire Maker – who won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at a mile and one-half. However, his broodmare sire – Yankee Gentleman – never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth but is nonetheless out of a half-sister to the dam of champion Shared Belief, who has won at a mile and one-quarter numerous times.
Although American Pharoah finished fifth in his debut at Del Mar last August, he has been untouchable ever since. In just his second lifetime start, he captured the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) by 4 ¾ lengths. Following an easy victory in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), American Pharoah was set to be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) but injury kept him out of the race, preventing him from making a start again until the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) in March. He returned like he never missed a beat, galloping to a 6 ¼-length victory in the slop in that race before taking the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) by an effortless 8 lengths.
American Pharoah’s final drill for the Derby came on Sunday, five days before the race, when he turned a bullet work for five furlongs at Churchill Downs, finishing in 58.40. Despite the fast time, it appeared leisurely for the colt.
While more digging is necessary to find stamina in American Pharoah’s pedigree than it is for many of the contenders, there is plenty of hope that ten furlongs will not be a problem for the colt. More importantly, he appears brilliant enough that – pedigree aside – the distance will not be an issue. This horse is wildly talented and the outside post shouldn’t be much of a problem for him. If he truly is the best of this group, we could be in for a treat on Saturday.
19. UPSTART:
Upstart shares his sire, Flatter, with two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I, 10F) winner Flat Out. His dam, Party Silks, is a daughter of Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) winner Touch Gold, who is also the broodmare sire of Emollient – a winner of multiple grade ones at a mile and one-quarter.
Upstart won his first two starts – a maiden special weight and the Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga – before finishing second in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Shipping west for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), Upstart finished more than 6 lengths behind Texas Red, but was beaten just a nose by Carpe Diem. He commenced 2015 in style, winning the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) by 5 ½ lengths over Frosted. He crossed the wire in front again in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) next out, but was disqualified to second for interference. In his final prep race for the Derby, Upstart was a good second behind Materiality despite slight interference.
A week prior to the Derby, Upstart had his final breeze for the race, posting a bullet work at Palm Meadows Training Center for five furlongs completed in 49.95. Upstart only arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, but looks to be doing well.
Upstart certainly has the pedigree to get the Derby distance and, when he’s at the top of his game, he’s brilliant. But will that be enough to get the job done in a race as tough as this one?
20. FAR RIGHT:
Far Right’s sire, Notional, excelled as a miler but is a son of In Excess – a grade one winner at a mile and one-quarter. Far Right’s dam, Zindi, is a daughter of Vindication – who, although never raced past his two-year-old year and therefore never won beyond a mile and one-eighth, is a son of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.
With nine starts under his belt, Far Right is among the most experienced horses in the field. To his advantage, he has already had three starts at Churchill Downs, including his maiden win. Last fall, he competed in three stakes after breaking his maiden in his third try, finishing a distant fourth in the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont before closing well to be third in both the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). He has had a stellar 2015 at Oaklawn Park, taking the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes (gr. III) in closing fashion. He was no match for American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, finishing 8 lengths behind that rival, but was second best on the day.
Eight days out from the Derby, Far Right had his final work, going a half-mile in 49 seconds flat at Churchill Downs. Already quite experienced over the Louisville surface, Far Right appeared rather comfortable.
Far Right is certainly a talented individual, but if he could not come near American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, it is unlikely that he will in the Kentucky Derby.
ALSO ELIGIBLES:
Frammento is a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I, 8.5F) winner Midshipman, who is a son of Unbridled’s Song – the sire of several horses who won grade ones at ten furlongs, including Octave, Political Force, and Will Take Charge, as well as Grey Song - who won the VRC St. Leger Stakes (GIII, 14F). Frammento’s dam, Ginger Bay, was a stakes winner at five and one-half furlongs but is a daughter of Golden Missile, who won the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. I) at a mile and three-sixteenths and is a son of Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F) winner A.P. Indy.
After breaking his maiden at Keeneland in his second start, Frammento was a respectable fourth at the allowance level at Churchill Downs before finishing second at the allowance level at Gulfstream. He has not had a winning performance this year, finishing a distant sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) before running third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and a well-beaten fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).
Frammento’s most recent work was at Keeneland on April 24 when he breezed a half-mile in 48 seconds flat.
Should he draw into the race, it would be a quite astonishing to see Frammento win.
Tale of Verve is a son of Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I, 9F) stakes winner Tale of Ekati and the Unbridled mare Verve. Unbridled, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I), is also the broodmare sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb.
Tale of Verve did not gain his first win until April 23 – nine days before the Derby. Prior to that, he had competed in five maiden races without success. With this race record, Tale of Verve possesses not even a single Derby point.
Due to having raced so recently, Tale of Verve has not had a recorded work since his last start. If Tale of Verve somehow makes it into the race, a win on his part would shock the world.
Nothing is certain in horse racing, especially the Kentucky Derby, but the top three horses – in any particular order – seems rather clear to me: American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem. American Pharoah is freakishly talented and seems the most likely winner, although a victory by Dortmund would not surprise me in the least, especially considering how gritty he is. I also expect a big run from Carpe Diem. Firing Line, Upstart, and El Kabeir are all worth a look, as well. For long shot value, I would consider Keen Ice simply because of how well he is training.