2014 Kentucky Derby Hopeful: Hoppertunity

2013 marked the year of the first Kentucky Derby run without a Bob Baffert trainee since 2008. The Derby seemed to be missing a familiar component with the absence of the white-haired trainer, but this year, he will look to return in style with Hoppertunity.

Racing Performances

Unraced as a two-year-old, Hoppertunity made his debut in early January at Santa Anita Park. Traveling seven furlongs over the dirt, the bay colt broke slowly before making only a mild rally to finish fifth of eight. He returned at the end of the month in a one-mile maiden special weight at the Arcadia, California track, in which he pressed the pace from third before making a rally along the inside rail to take the lead at the top of the lane. Digging in, Hoppertunity repelled his competitors’ rallies to draw off to a 3-length victory.

Satisfied enough with the colt’s maiden win, Hoppertunity’s connections sent him to Louisiana for his graded stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at the Fair Grounds. Breaking awkwardly from the gate, Hoppertunity raced mid-pack into the first turn among the crowded field of fourteen before allowing himself to drop back near the rear down the backstretch. After racing several lengths off the leader down the far side of the track, Hoppertunity began his rally around the far turn, advancing along the outside. Forced to go six-wide as the field turned for home, Hoppertunity was left with much ground to make up at the top of the stretch. Despite drifting closer to the rail, the bay colt continued a respectable rally to get up for fourth.

Sent to Oaklawn Park in March, Hoppertunity faced seven competitors in the mile and one-sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) over a sealed, wet-fast track. Away a bit slowly from the gate, Hoppertunity quickly gained a stalking position just behind the leaders, racing third and to the outside throughout the majority of the race. Although he briefly raced in second, just a small margin behind the leader (Strong Mandate), he soon returned to his position in third, where he remained until Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith began to ask the colt for his move around the final bend. Meanwhile, the favorite – Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Tapiture – commenced his rally from the inside and found a seam between Hoppertunity and Strong Mandate at the top of the lane. Then the drama began. The four forerunners – Ride On Curlin, Strong Mandate, Tapiture, and Hoppertunity – all came together, bumping in late stretch before Hoppertunity edged clear to win by a half-length. Hoppertunity’s victory survived a steward’s inquiry and jockey’s claim of foul.

Returning to his home base, Hoppertunity faced the superstar of the 2014 Kentucky Derby trail, California Chrome, in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) in his final prep race for the Run for the Roses. Settling mid-pack, Hoppertunity remained relaxed throughout and responded well to little asking from Smith, who knew the colt could not catch California Chrome. Although Hoppertunity could not make up the 5 ¼-length deficit between him and California Chrome, he did prove to be second-best, finishing 3 ½ lengths clear of the third place finisher, Candy Boy, before galloping out ahead of the winner.

Pedigree Analysis

Hoppertunity is a son of Haskell Invitational (gr. I, 9F) winner Any Given Saturday, who finished eighth in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. In his young stallion career, Any Given Saturday’s offspring have chiefly excelled at nine furlongs or less, but he is the sire of Any Day Will Do, who placed in an Australia stakes races contested at a distance of nearly a mile and three-sixteenths. Any Given Saturday is a son of Distorted Humor, who has found much success in producing grade one-winning distance runners including Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F) winner Drosselmeyer; Kentucky Derby (gr. I, 10F), Preakness Stakes (gr. I, 9.5F), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I, 10F) winner Funny Cide; Travers Stakes (gr. I, 10F) winner Flower Alley, who sired 2012 Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another; and Man O’ War Stakes (gr. I, 11F) winner Boisterous.

Hoppertunity’s dam, Refugee, placed in the Orchid Stakes (gr. III, 12F) and won up to the distance of a mile and one-eighth. She has proven to be a tremendous broodmare, as she is also the dam of the multiple grade one-winning Executiveprivilege, who has won up to a mile and one-sixteenth, as well as the stakes-placed sprinter Profit. Refugee’s sire is Unaccounted For, winner of the Whitney Handicap (gr. I, 9F) and runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I, 10F) to Cigar.

Perhaps the most notable aspect of Hoppertunity’s ancestry is his third dam, Hall of Fame racemare Davona Dale. Winner of five grade ones, including the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I, 9F), Davona Dale won the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) when it was contested at the distance of twelve furlongs. Davona Dale went on to produce Belmont Stakes third-place finisher Le Voyageur and the stakes-placed Macau.

Conclusion

Apollo Curse or not, Hoppertunity’s immaturity puts him at a disadvantage. However, he is one of the most naturally talented Derby contenders this year and possesses a stronger distance pedigree than many of his rivals. He couldn’t catch California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby, but maybe the additional furlong of the Derby will make the difference Hoppertunity needs.