2014 Kentucky Derby Field Analysis

1. VICAR’S IN TROUBLE: By Into Mischief and out of a Vicar mare, this colt’s pedigree does not suggest that distances beyond a mile and one-eighth would be within his realm. However, he is from the same female family as Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) runner-up Thirty Six Red and San Luis Rey Handicap (gr. I, 12F) winner Big Spruce.

After breaking his maiden at second asking by 13 lengths, Vicar’s in Trouble was a runaway winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at the Fair Grounds. Remaining at the New Orleans track, Vicar’s in Trouble was a distant third in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) before he returned to his winning ways in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which he won by an easy 3 ½ lengths.

After a pair of works over Churchill’s training track, Vicar’s In Trouble completed his final work for the Derby a week before the race, breezing a slow five furlongs in 1:03.80.

Vicar’s In Trouble ability may be underestimated. This is a colt that knows how to win and when he does win, he dominates his competition. However, not only is the Derby’s ten furlong distance a big question for Vicar’s In Trouble, but he truly is in trouble with the rail position.

2. HARRY’S HOLIDAY: Harry’s Holiday’s sire, Harlan’s Holiday, only won up to nine furlongs, but did place in grade ones at the ten-furlong distance on several occasions. However, he was seventh in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. Harry’s Holiday’s broodmare sire, Orientate, was a champion sprinter.

Romping in a maiden claiming at Churchill Downs in his debut, Harry’s Holiday placed and won in a pair of starter races before advancing to the stakes level. A distant fifth in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in his three-year-old debut, Harry’s Holiday redeemed himself with a romp in the 96ROCK Stakes sprinting over Turfway Park’s Polytrack. Following up this effort with a third in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Harry’s Holiday then ran second in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III), finishing a nose behind We Miss Artie. Most recently, he was thirteen of fourteen in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).

Since the Blue Grass, Harry’s Holiday has had just one work, breezing a slow five furlongs in 1:02.60 at Churchill Downs a week before the Derby.

Although Harry’s Holiday appears to have a preference for dirt and clearly likes Churchill’s surface, he is outclassed here.

3. UNCLE SIGH: Uncle Sigh’s sire, Indian Charlie, was third in the 1998 Kentucky Derby and never won beyond nine furlongs. His dam, Cradlesong, is a daughter of Preakness Stakes (gr. I, 9.5F) winner Pine Bluff.

Uncle Sigh followed up his maiden victory with a pair of game second-place efforts behind Samraat in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and Gotham Stakes (gr. III). In his final start before the Derby, he was a flat fifth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I).

In only one work at Churchill Downs, Uncle Sigh breezed a very slow half-mile in 52.80 on Wednesday – the slowest of all twenty four furlong works that morning.

While Uncle Sigh has proven to be a very game competitor, the mile and one-quarter distance of the Derby will likely prove to be too much for him.

4. DANZA: Although Danza’s sire, Street Boss, excelled at sprinting, he is a son of Street Cry, sire of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F) and 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta. Danza is a half-brother to Tokyo City Cup Stakes (gr. III, 12F) winner Majestic Harbor.

After winning his debut sprinting at Belmont, Danza was a fast-closing third in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II, 6.5F). Kept away from the races for nearly seven months, Danza was a distant third at the allowance level at Gulfstream Park in his three-year-old debut. Shipping to Oaklawn and stretching out to a mile and one-eighth, Danza shocked fans and bettors at 41-1 when he captured the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) by 4 ¾ lengths.

Danza has made one of the best impressions of any of the Derby contenders training at Churchill Downs. Appearing very fit and strong, Danza has garnered bountiful attention while preparing for the Derby. In his single work at Churchill Downs on the Sunday before the Derby, Danza ate up the ground with his powerful strides to complete a half-mile work in 48.80 in company with Vinceremos, who he easily overpowered.

Danza is one of the biggest threats in this race. As impressive as he has appeared while training, he is on the path to proving that his Arkansas Derby win was not a fluke.

5. CALIFORNIA CHROME: Although California Chrome’s parents, Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase, do not suggest classic distances would be California Chrome’s forte, his broodmare sire – Not for Love – and his paternal grandsire – Pulpit – should provide him with stamina support. Most importantly, he appears to be the type of horse capable of outrunning his pedigree.

California Chrome has been the most visually impressive of any horse on this year’s Derby trail. Since winning his final start as a two-year-old in Hollywood Park's last stakes race, the King Glorious Stakes, by a large margin, California Chrome has not looked back, stringing together four consecutive victories, including wins in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). A horse who has seemingly forgotten how to lose, California Chrome has won his past four starts by a combined 24 ¼ lengths.

California Chrome did not make quite the impression most were expecting when he first trained at Churchill, galloping with very choppy strides. He appeared to be more comfortable in his second gallop over the Louisville track, but still did not stride out quite like one would want to see from the Kentucky Derby favorite. However, trainer Art Sherman is pleased with him and he knows his horse better than anyone else.

California Chrome is nearly as strong a favorite as possible. However, nothing is guaranteed in horse racing, especially in the Kentucky Derby in which the elements are far different than most races. It is worrisome that he has not looked his best while training over the Churchill surface. However, no horse has shown the astounding amount of brilliance he has. This is one of the most dominant favorites we have seen in recent years.

6. SAMRAAT: Samraat’s sire, Noble Causeway, never won beyond a mile and one-eighth and was fourteenth in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Similarly, Samraat’s broodmare sire – Indian Charlie – was third in the 1998 Derby and also never won at a distance longer than nine furlongs.

Undefeated in his first four starts, Samraat won his first two races – a maiden special weight and an allowance – by a combined nine lengths. He then annihilated the field in the Damon Runyon Stakes, romping by 16 ¾ lengths. Following a pair of wins in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and Gotham Stakes (gr. III), Samraat suffered the first loss of his career in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), in which he finished second to Wicked Strong.

Taking a different approach than most horses, Samraat has not had a work over Churchill Downs’ surface and his last work was a one mile breeze at Aqueduct eight days out from the Derby, which he completed in 1:45.91.

Samraat is as game as they come and clearly likes to win. However, the distance poses as a big worry for this colt. Nonetheless, his knack for winning should not be ignored.

7. WE MISS ARTIE: Both of We Miss Artie’s parents made careers on the grass. Although We Miss Artie’s sire, Artie Schiller, excelled as a turf miler, the sire of We Miss Artie’s dam, Athena’s Gift, is a daughter of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.

After running second on the dirt in his debut at Belmont Park, We Miss Artie broke his maiden on the grass at Saratoga. He was then a disappointing sixth of seven in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) on Saratoga’s turf, but when racing on a synthetic surface for the first time next out, he was a clear winner of the Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. Returning to the dirt for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), We Miss Artie finished seventh. A return to the turf saw him finish second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulfstream Park in his sophomore debut, but after this good effort, he again returned to the dirt, only to finish eighth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). We Miss Artie remained undefeated on the Polytrack when he captured the Spiral Stakes (gr. I) by a nose last out.

We Miss Artie’s final work for the Derby came in his lone breeze at Churchill Downs, in which he traveled four furlongs in 49.20 on Sunday in company with Intense Holiday. While Intense Holiday began several lengths behind him, he quickly caught up with We Miss Artie. The latter failed to keep up and finished a large margin behind Intense Holiday while being ridden along by his rider.

A win by We Miss Artie would be a big surprise. He is a talented colt, but is better on turf and synthetic surfaces.

8. GENERAL A ROD: Although General A Rod’s sire, Roman Ruler, never won beyond nine furlongs, he is a son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. General A Rod’s broodmare sire is Dynaformer, a major stamina influence and the sire of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.

Never worse than third in his five career starts, General A Rod broke his maiden on Keeneland’s Polytrack as a two-year-old before finishing second in his dirt debut at Churchill Downs in an allowance race next out. After gamely winning the Gulfstream Park Derby by a head over Wildcat Red in his first start as a three-year-old, the pair switched roles in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) when Wildcat Red defeated General A Rod by a head. In his final race before the Kentucky Derby, General A Rod finished 1 ½ lengths behind Constitution and Wildcat Red in the Florida Derby (gr. I).

General A Rod has had two works over Churchill’s main train in preparation for the Derby, the most recent of which was a 49.40 half-mile breeze on Tuesday. He traveled very powerfully over the track in this work and appeared very comfortable with the surface.

General A Rod could offer good value for bettors. As a horse who has never won a bad race and clearly likes Churchill’s surface, as evident in his win and his works beneath the twin spires, he deserves a look.

9. VINCEREMOS: A son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, Vinceremos is out of a daughter of More Than Ready – a grade one winner that found most of his success in sprints. He is from the same female family as Hall of Famer Safely Kept, a champion sprinter.

Second in his debut at six furlongs, Vinceremos broke his maiden going a mile on the dirt at Gulfstream Park in January. He then won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) by a nose before finishing three lengths behind Ring Weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II). In the worst race of his life, he finished last in the Blue Grass Stake (gr. I) last out.

In his lone work at Churchill Downs, Vinceremos breezed a half-mile in 49 seconds flat on Sunday in company with Danza. He did not appear overly comfortable with the surface and could not keep up with his stablemate, who kicked away quickly from Vinceremos.

10. WILDCAT RED: A son of sprinter D'wildcat, Wildcat Red will receive very little stamina support from his sire. His best chance for stamina support comes from his broodmare sire, Miners Mark, who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I, 10F).

After winning his first two starts – a maiden special weight and an allowance – by a combined 9 ½ lengths at Gulfstream Park, Wildcat Red crossed the wire first in the Juvenile Sprint Stakes at the same track but was disqualified to second for interference in the stretch. In his juvenile debut, Wildcat Red finished just a head behind General A Rod in the Gulfstream Park Derby. After romping in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) going seven furlongs, Wildcat Red got revenge on General A Rod in the mile and one-sixteenth Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), winning by a head. He again finished ahead of General A Rod in the Florida Derby (gr. I) – this time by 1 ¼ lengths, but was beaten a neck by Constitution, finishing second.

Wildcat Red has had just one work at Churchill Downs, breezing five furlongs in a slow 1:02.40 on Sunday. He started this work out strong, but could have finished up much better.

Although his final work could have been more impressive, he did not look terrible and is certainly one of the most tenacious horses in the field.

11. HOPPERTUNITY: Scratched

12. DANCE WITH FATE: While Dance With Fate’s sire, Two Step Salsa, found his greatest success as a miler, Dance With Fate’s dam, Flirting With Fate, is a daughter of Saint Ballado. This son of Halo is the sire of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F)-winning Horse of the Year Saint Liam and Hollywood Turf Cup (gr. I, 12F) winner Sunriver.

After finishing eighth of nine in his debut on the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park, Dance With Fate was an impressive winner of a maiden special weight over Del Mar’s synthetic track. After finishing second, beaten by just a half-length, in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I), Dance With Fate made his dirt debut in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita. Although he held the lead at the top of the stretch, he was overtaken by Bond Holder to finish second. A disappointing eight place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) concluded Dance With Fate’s two-year-old season. Trying grass for the first time in his three-year-old debut, Dance With Fate was an easy winner at the allowance level. After being run down by old rival Tamarando in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), in which he finished second by a half-length, Dance With Fate scored the biggest win of his career with an easy victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) over Keeneland’s Polytrack.

Among the horses that did not have his final breeze at Churchill, Dance With Fate’s last drill before the race was a 47-flat half-mile move at Santa Anita a week before the Derby. Always an impressive-looking individual, Dance With Fate has looked rather well while galloping at Churchill.

Dance With Fate’s only good race on the dirt was his runner-up effort in the FrontRunner Stakes last September at Santa Anita. His only other dirt race was a dull eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He appears to be a turf and synthetic specialist, but he has such an ease of going that he is hard to ignore. But in a field of the top three-year-old dirt males in the nation, Dance With Fate may be at a disadvantage.

13. CHITU: Although Chitu’s sire, Henny Hughes, was a multiple grade one-winning sprinter, his dam, Sea Gift, raced only once, winning a mile and one-quarter race in England. Sea Gift is a daughter of A.P. Indy, winner of the 1992 Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F).

After winning his first two starts as a two-year-old, Chitu made his sophomore debut – which was also his graded stakes debut – in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), finishing a half-length behind Candy Boy. Traveling to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby (gr. III), Chitu drew off to a 2 ¼-length victory.

Chitu has had two works over Churchill Downs – a brisk 47.60 half-mile breeze on April 21 and bullet six-furlong work from the gate on Sunday in company with stablemate Party Time. In his final work, he began powerfully, eating up the ground with the strides. However, near the end of his work, he required strong urging from his rider to edge away from Party Time, and his strides required much more labor.

A stout, powerfully built colt, Chitu holds promise and at morning line odds of 20-1, he is worth a look as a long shot play. However, his final work was discouraging.

14. MEDAL COUNT: Medal Count is a son of major stamina influence Dynaformer, who is the sire of multiple distance horses, including 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. Medal Count’s dam, the graded stakes-placed Brisquette, is a daughter of Unbridled’s Song, the sire of Travers Stakes (gr. I, 10F) winner Will Take Charge, Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I, 10F) victress Octave, Suburban Handicap (GI, 10F) winner Political Force, and VRC St. Leger Stakes (14F) winner Grey Song.

Medal Count began his career with a romp in a one mile maiden special weight on the dirt with Ellis Park before disappointing with a fifth place effort in the Bourbon Stakes at (gr. III) at Keeneland and an eleventh place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Making his turf debut in his first start as a three-year-old, Medal Count won at the allowance level going seven and one-half furlongs on the grass at Gulfstream. Returning to the dirt for the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), Medal Count finished fifth, beaten by more than nine lengths. After winning the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) on the Polytrack at Keeneland, Medal Count was a good second behind Dance With Fate in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on the same track.

With one work in at Churchill Downs, Medal Count breezed a bullet six furlongs a week before the Derby, although he did not appear entirely comfortable with the surface.

Medal Count is certainly talented, but appears to be better on grass and synthetic surfaces than dirt. On a big stage in the Breeders’ Cup, Medal Count failed to perform. How will he handle an even bigger stage in the Derby?

15. TAPITURE: While progeny of Tapiture’s sire, Tapit, are considered to be more prone to speed and precocity, the leading sire has produced Testa Matta – winner of the mile and one-quarter Japan Dirt Derby (JPN-I) – and Careless Jewel – winner of the Alabama Stakes (gr. I, 10F). Tapiture’s dam, Free Spin, raced only six times and never won beyond six and one-half furlongs, but is a daughter of Olympio, who won the American Derby (gr. II) at the distance of ten furlongs.

After three losses, including a third in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III), Tapiture broke his maiden in style by winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) by 4 ¼ lengths. After a rest that lasted nearly three months, Tapiture made his three-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), which he won by 4 ¼ lengths. A rough trip in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) saw Tapiture endure interference from rivals in late stretch as he finished a game second. Most recently, he was a distant and disappointing fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I).

Tapiture has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, most recently breezing four furlongs in 50 seconds flat over a wet track. He was very strong in this gallop, resisting his rider at the beginning of the breeze before settling down and appearing very powerful while working despite the pouring rain.

Tapiture’s biggest advantage is his all-important previous win at Churchill Downs. He appears to be very fit coming into the race and if you can forgive his Arkansas Derby performance, he could offer good value.

16. INTENSE HOLIDAY: Intense Holiday’s sire, Harlan’s Holiday, only won up to nine furlongs, but did place in grade ones at the ten-furlong distance on several occasions. However, he was seventh in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. Intense Holiday’s broodmare sire, Unbridled’s Song, was fifth in the 1996 Derby and also never won beyond a mile and one-eighth. However, he has produced several distance horses, including Travers Stakes (gr. I, 10F) winner Will Take Charge, Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I, 10F) victress Octave, Suburban Handicap (GI, 10F) winner Political Force, and VRC St. Leger Stakes (14F) winner Grey Song.

Fifth in his debut at Monmouth Park last July, Intense Holiday won in his second start at the same track when stretching out to a mile, winning by 3 ½ lengths. Facing graded stakes company for the first time in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont, Intense Holiday finished a weak fifth. After a pair of fourth-place efforts in graded stakes at Aqueduct, Intense Holiday finished third to the dominant Cairo Prince – who had also defeated Intense Holiday in his past two starts – in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II). In his next start, he rallied to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) by a nose. Running greenly in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) next out, Intense Holiday did not receive the best trip but still manage to finish third, although he was beaten 3 ½ lengths by Vicar’s In Trouble.

Intense Holiday has made quite the impression while training at Churchill Downs. In his only work at the track on Sunday, he was very impressive, finishing multiple lengths ahead of stablemate We Miss Artie to complete four furlongs in 48.60.

Intense Holiday does not win often, but has looked remarkable while preparing for the Derby at Churchill Downs. He will likely be bet down because of this.

17. COMMANDING CURVE: Although Commanding Curve’s sire, Master Command, was a son of Belmont Stakes (gr. I, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I, 10F) winner A.P. Indy, he never won past a mile and one-eighth. Commanding Curve’s dam – fittingly named Mother – is a daughter of Lion Hearted, who was a sprinter.

Commanding Curve didn’t break his maiden until his fourth start, when he took a mile and one-sixteenth maiden special weight on the dirt at Churchill. After beginning 2014 with a flat sixth in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), Commanding Curve received a rough trip in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) but still managed to finish a good third.

Commanding Curve has the advantage of three works at Churchill Downs, but in his most recent breeze – a five-furlong drill a week before the Derby – he required much encouragement from his rider and did not finish up well, decreasing the lead he had on his workmate and changing leads in late stretch.

The only race Commanding Curve has ever won was a maiden special weight. He would have had to mature greatly between the Louisiana Derby and now in order to win the Derby and his most recent work suggests he hasn’t.

18. CANDY BOY: Candy Boy’s sire, Candy Ride, was a grade one winner at a mile and one-quarter and is the sire of a horse that has done the same in Misremembered. Candy Boy’s stakes-winning dam, She’s an Eleven, is a daughter of In Excess, who holds the track record at Belmont for a mile and one-quarter.

Candy Boy is another who didn’t break his maiden until his fourth start. After dominating a maiden special weight at Hollywood Park in November, Candy Boy finished a good second behind Champion Two-Year-Old Male Shared Belief in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His three-year-old debut resulted in a game win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita. In his final race before the Kentucky Derby, Candy Boy barely held on for third in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), in which he finished 8 ¾ lengths behind California Chrome.

Breezing five furlongs a week before the Derby in his only work at Churchill, Candy Boy appeared very eager and finished up well to complete the work in 1:00.80.

Candy Boy could not keep up with California Chrome before, so his chances seem limited here, unless he takes to the Derby distance and Churchill surface better than that rival does.

19. RIDE ON CURLIN: Ride On Curlin is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who won at a mile and one-quarter on multiple occasions. His graded stakes-placed dam, Magical Ride, is a daughter of Storm Cat, who is the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister. Ride On Curlin’s granddam, the grade one-winning sprinter Victory Ride, is a daughter of Seeking the Gold – a grade one winner at ten furlongs.

The second most heavily raced of any horse in the field (behind California Chrome), Ride On Curlin has raced nine times and has only finished worse than third on one occasion. After breaking his maiden in his second start when he romped in a sprint at Ellis Park, Ride On Curlin finished fourth – beaten less than three lengths – in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. Beaten less than two lengths by the highly touted colts Havana and Honor Code in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) next out, Ride On Curlin completed his juvenile campaign with a distant third in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill. Beginning 2014 with a win in an allowance at Oaklawn Park, Ride On Curlin finished third in both the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) before showing a good late kick in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), in which he finished 4 ¾ lengths behind Danza.

Ride On Curlin has had one work at Churchill Downs this spring, breezing seven furlongs in 1:29 six days before the Derby, appearing powerful.

Ride On Curlin has never run a bad race and seems to be improving. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel will be aboard.


20. WICKED STRONG: Boasting one of the most stamina-laced pedigrees of any Derby runner, Wicked Strong is by 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun and out of the Charismatic mare Moyne Abbey. Hard Spun has already produced a grade one winner at ten furlongs in Questing.

After breaking his maiden at second asking, Wicked Strong finished a fast-closing third in his graded stakes debut, the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). An unsuccessful trip to Florida saw him finish ninth of eleven in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in an allowance-level event at Gulfstream Park. He then returned to New York and redeemed himself with an important win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I).

Wicked Strong’s lone work at Churchill, which came just two days before the Derby, was a three-furlong bullet. In this drill, the colt traveled very powerfully and effortlessly.

Breaking from the outside post is certainly to his disadvantage, but he is entering this race in a very strong manner. Perhaps his inconsistency and immaturity are worrisome, but this is a talented colt bred for distance. He should not be ignored.

I must stick with the favorite, California Chrome, here simply because his brilliance is something you don’t see often. Should he maintain this brilliance, we could see something special from him. However, I will keep my eye out for Danza, who appears to be sitting on a big performance. I also expect good runs from Wicked Strong, Ride On Curlin, and General A Rod. Also, if Tapiture’s odds continue to inflate, he could make a nice price play.