Marathon Racing is Live on Breeders' Cup Weekend
Who can forget Calidoscopio’s heroic late run in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Marathon, or London Bridge wearing down Blueskiesnrainbows in last year’s edition? The Breeders’ Cup Marathon was never void of excitement, despite the 3 minute duration of the race. Previously run at 1 ¾ miles on the main track, it was the highest purse ($500,000) offered at any race distance greater than 1 ½ miles on dirt in North America. The race became specifically tailored to a focused group of thoroughbreds brave enough to contest the distance, and was among the most unique of the 2-day card Breeders’ Cup card.
In the spring of 2014, the Breeders’ Cup announced that the Marathon was being discontinued with the following statement, “It is our mission to conduct a racing program with competition at its highest level,” said Craig Fravel, the chief executive of the Breeders’ Cup, in a statement. “While we truly appreciate the participation of owners and trainers in the Marathon, the conditions of the race have not developed into a competition that we believe reaches the standard set by the remaining races [in the Breeders’ Cup’s year-end event].”
However, at the good graces of the host track at Santa Anita, they are putting on the Breeders’ Cup undercard another 14-furlong dirt race boasting the Grade 2 status equivalent to the Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The new race was rebranded as the Las Vegas Marathon with a purse of $200,000. In addition to the excitement of having a staying distance race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, the conditions of the race allow for all pre-entered Breeders’ Cup horses to receive a free nomination..
The conditions of the contest have attracted nine horses all of which are among the elite group of staying thoroughbreds in North America. Absent of any new foreign invaders, whom have made the trip to the Breeders Cup Marathon when it carried the name, the nine North America based entries have all had some level of success in staying distances on either dirt or turf.
Evaluating the field of this year’s Marathon, its hard to find a strong favorite, and will likely yield a very high payout for the winner. The first handicapping method suggested by this author is really quite simple. In the history of the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, the shortest odds for any winner of this race have been 6-1. Just bet the half of the field with the lowest odds and you’re likely to find the winner. Another interesting fact is that for the past two editions over as “speed favoring” Sana Anita track, the winners of the Marathon were 17 and 7 lengths behind the leaders, respectively, at the half way point of the race. Speed has not won this race at Santa Anita. A further breakdown of each of the other horses is below:
1. Big Kick – 124lbs – 9/2 - Michael Mochowsky
The 5 year old Tiznow gelding has been a bit inconsistent this year, but does have a win at the 14-furlong distance in the San Juan Capistrano on the Santa Anita turf course. While his recent form since his layoff has been poor, a win over the distance is not something that should be easily dismissed. I would expect some improvement in his 3rd start off the layoff, but I do believe turf to be his preferred surface. He likes to be on the front end, which has not proven successful in the past two editions of the Marathon at Santa Anita.
2. Patrioticandproud – 119lbs – 10/1 – Mark Casse
Unraced since August, the 5 year old son of Proud Citizen will look to build off the runner up effort last out at Del Mar. He’s been training well over the Santa Anita dirt and doesn’t seem to mind two turns. His last race on dirt was 18 months ago in the Alysheba where he was clearly outclassed against some of the top handicap horses running at the time. Mark Casse has been red hot lately, so I wouldn’t discount a top 4 finish, but I don’t think that Patrioticandproud will find the winner’s circle on Friday.
3. Irish Surf – 119lbs – 4/1 – Dan Hendricks
Not very much of a longshot in this race, Irish Surf has had a year of ups and downs. His best performance was his 8-length romp of the 12 furlong Cougar II handicap over the synthetic track at Del Mar. While that bodes well for him going into this race, that win was setting an uncontested lead and a moderate pace. I don’t think he’ll get things that easily, so we’ll see if this turf/synthetic runner can go the distance over the dirt. I am not a fan of him in the spot, but if he can close into a strong early pace or jump out to a lengthy uncontested lead he may just steal it.
4. Ice Cream Truck– 119lbs – 8/1 – A.C. Avila
This “pleasantly” named 4 year old has a pedigree (Pleasantly Perfect out of a Smart Strike mare) that screams 14-furlongs, but his performance in staying races have not quite lived up to that reputation. He has seen success on the dirt and at Santa Anita, but at much shorter distances. I don’t think he’ll be much of an impact in this race, but if his pedigree does shine through perhaps going longer was the right move.
5. Big Cazanova– 119lbs – 5/2 – Peter Miller
The very successful allowance runner was recently seen getting trounced by 19 lengths at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. However, this could prove to be quite the prep for the longer marathon distance and the morning line favorite has shown an affinity for the racing surface at Santa Anita. His front running style could hinder him here if he’s contested early, but he did have good results running staying distance races in Peru before shipping to the USA. Definite contender, but the front running style is a disadvantage at this distance.
6. Mystery Train– 119lbs – 4/1 – Darrell Vienna
A multiple winner at 10f in South America, this runner is ready to make his third start in the USA in this race. Two turns do not seem to be much of an issue, but will 3 prove to be his downfall? A long shot in the Awesome Again, he pressed an early pace and eventually led for a short while down the back stretch. If he can relax for the first lap around the Santa Anita oval, he may be sitting in a keen position to move late grab the win. With veteran Mike Smith in the irons, Mystery Train is real contender for this race.
7. Sky Kingdom– 119lbs – 5/1 – Bob Baffert
A winner at 12 furlongs at Santa Anita in 2013, Sky Kingdom has not quite had the same success this year. His one attempt at the staying distance this year was a distance second place to Irish Surf in the Cougar II Handicap. Another front runner, he has shown the ability to rate the pace and still win, which he will likely have to do from his outside post position. He’s certainly a contender for this race, but if he finds himself in a speed dual he’ll be gasping for air the second time past the grandstands.
8. Volkonsky– 119lbs – 20/1 – Kristen Mulhall
A definite long shot, there doesn’t seem to be a lot to indicate this 5 year old son of Vronsky wants any part of 14 furlongs. However, he has performed well in low level allowances going two turns in Southern California. Perhaps the best thing going for this 5 year old gelding is his running style which should sit him off what is likely to be a hot pace. Although difficult to dismiss anyone at the marathon distance, I think Volkonsky is not likely to shine through in this spot.
9. Cary Street– 119lbs – 10/1 – Brendan Walsh
The 5 year old gelded son of Smarty Jones look poised to pounce at the 14-furlong distance of the Marathon. Coming off the layoff with a win in the 1 ½ mile Greenwood Cup at Parx in early September, the Brendan Walsh trainee looks long winded enough to steal this race from the outside post position. With plenty of early speed in the race, his late running style, plus what looks to be a strong foundation for this distance has Carry Street as my pick to win the Marathon.
The Marathon is a great betting opportunity to cash a big ticket, and hopefully some of you can make that happen.
My wagering for this race will be as follows:
$10 win/place: (9) Cary Street $20 ticket
$1 Trifecta: 6,9/3,6,7,9/1,2,3,5,6,7,9 $30 ticket
$0.10 Super: 6,9/3,6,7,9/1,2,3,5,6,7,9/all $18 ticket