Workouts and Analysis for the 2015 Breeders' Cup Distaff

As is the case with every Breeders’ Cup race, we must not look at a single prep as the sole guide to a horse’s chance to win. Their entire body of work, as well as current form, give us a lot more information to help handicap. While many horses of the Longines Breeders Cup Distaff have faced off prior in the year of racing, it is useful to review current workouts as gauge to whether a horse will fire in the coming championship race. Below is a compilation of all timed works during the month of October to help guide the horseplayer in the best direction for selecting the winner.

1) I’m A Chatterbox (Larry Jones, Florent Geroux) 8-1

10/11 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :47.20 (1/40)

10/17 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in 1:00.40 (6/23), with fractions of :11.40, :23.40, 47.80 and a 6 furlong gallop out of 1:13.40.

10/24 at Keeneland: 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 (3/10), with fractions of :11.80, :23.60, :36.20 and a 6 furlong gallop out of 1:14.60

2) Frivolous (Victoria Oliver, John Court) 30-1

10/16 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :47.80 (3/31), with a 5 furlong gallop out in 1:01.20

10/23 at Keeneland: 5 furlongs in :59.80 (2/17), with fractions of :12.60, :24.20, :35.80, and a 6 furlong gallop out of 1:13.20

3) Salama (Charles LoPresti, Julien Leparoux) 50-1

10/1 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :48.80 (1/5)

10/22 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in 48.60 (11/28), with the quarter in :24.20 and a 5 furlong gallop out in 1:00.60

4) Stopchargingmaria (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano) 5-1

10/5 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :48 (5/59), with the quarter in 24.40 and a gallop out of 1:01.20

10/11 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :48.40 (7/40)

10/17 at Keeneland: 5 furlongs in :59.60 (3/23), with fractions of :11.60, :23.40, :35.20, and a gallop out of 6 furlongs in 1:13.

10/24 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :47 (3/27), with fractions of :12.60,  :24.60, and gallop out times in :59 and 1:12.

5) Calamity Kate (Kelly Breen, Edgar Prado) 30-1

10/7 at Monmouth Park: 4 furlongs in :48 (2/35)

10/15 at Monmouth Park: 4 furlongs in :47.80 (2/26)

10/22 at Monmouth Park: 4 furlongs in :48 (3/40)

6) My Sweet Addiction (Marvin Jones, Mike Smith) 20-1

10/9 at Los Alamitos: 4 furlongs in :49.20 (13/22)

10/16 at Los Alamitos: 5 furlongs in :59.80 (2/21)

10/23 at Los Alamitos: 6 furlongs in 1:12.80 (5/14)

7) Wedding Toast (Kiaran McLaughlin, Jose Lezcano) 4-1

10/15 at Greentree Training Center: 4 furlongs in 49.60 (2/2)

10/23 at Greentree Training Center: 4 furlongs in 49.40 (5/6)

8) Curalina (Todd Pletcher, Joel Rosario) 12-1

10/9 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in 47.20 (2/26), with a quarter in :24 and a gallop out of 1:00 for 5 furlongs and 1:14.20 for 6 furlongs.

10/16 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :47.80 (3/31), with fractions of :12.20, :24.60, and a 5 furlong gallop out in 1:00.60

10/22 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :48.20 (5/28), with fractions of :12.60, 25.40 and a gallop out of 1:00.80 and 1:14

9) Stellar Wind (John Saddler, Victor Espinoza) 12-1

10/3 at Santa Anita: 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 (14/102)

10/10 at Santa Anita: 6 furlongs in 1:16.80 (14/15)

10/17 at Santa Anita: 7 furlongs in 1:27.20 (1/2)

10/23 at Santa Anita: 5 furlongs in 1:01.20 (11/69)

10) Yahilwa (James Cassidy, James Graham) 20-1

10/15 at Keeneland: 5 furlongs in :58.40 (1/17), with fractions of :11.60, :22.80, 34.60, 46.60, and a 6 furlong gallop out of 1:12.20

10/22 at Keeneland: 5 furlongs in :59 (1/22), with fractions in :12, :23.20, :34.80, and a 6 furlong gallop out in 1:11.80

11) Untapable (Steve Assmusen, John Velazquez) 5-1 - SCRATCH

12) Got Lucky (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz) 6-1

10/22 at Keeneland: 4 furlongs in :48.40 (9/28), with fractions of :12, :23.80, and a 5 furlong gallop out in 1:01.40

13) Warren’s Veneda (Craig Lewis, Tyler baze) 30-1

10/6 at Santa Anita: 5 furlongs in 1:00 (1/28)

10/14 at Santa Anita: 5 furlongs in :59.80 (6/28)

10/22 at Santa Anita: 5 furlongs in 1:01 (5/29)

14) Sheer Drama (David Fawkes, Joe Bravo) 9-2

10/4 at Gulfstream Park: 5 furlongs in 1:00.26 (1/10)

10/21 at Gulfstream Park: 5 furlongs in 58.88 (1/11)

15) Peace and War (Graham Motion, Drayden Van Dyke) 30-1

10/14 at Fair Hill Training Center: 5 furlongs in 1:01.20 (2/8)

10/22 at Fair Hill Training Center: 1:13.40 (1/1)

The 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff is one of the most wide open editions in many years. A full field of 14 will be looking to achieve greatness, with any of the group poised to bring home the championship. I was as upset as any when I learned of Untapable's withdraw from the race due to a fever, but the show must go on. Even without the defending champions, handicapping this race is no easy task with the plethora of talent and a solid mix of running styles. Given the large number of horses that prefer to be at or near the lead, this race will not be won in the first half mile, but it certainly could be lost. Here’s a few stats to help breakdown the race:

• 6 of the 14 starters entered in the Distaff were placed 1st or 2nd during the first 3 calls of their most recent race (Stopchargingmaria, Calamity Kate, My Sweet Addiction, Wedding Toast, Stellar Wind, and Yahilwa).

• 2 of the 14 started closed more than 5 lengths in their most recent prep (Salama 7 ½; Got Lucky 6 ¼)

This race is setting up to be a closer’s dream. However, one thing to note is that all of the horses that will be battling for the lead are top class and have shown their refusal to spit the bit when they’re asked in the stretch. Here’s how a possible scenario for how the race will unfold.

All starting next to each other, Stopchargingmaria, Calamity Kate, My Sweet Addiction, and Wedding Toast will be shot the lead from the gates, and the pace setter will likely come from this group. Given Keeneland’s shorter run up to the first turn, a clean break is crucial for these horses. I see Stopchargingmaria winning the vanguard charge with Wedding Toast on her immediate outside assuming the lead in the first turn.

Behind those leaders we can expect the remainder of the front runners Curalina, Stellar Wind, and Yahilwa to be jostling for position down the back stretch. The real wild card is Frivolous who has shown to perform well from up front or off the pace. Given all the speed to her outside at the break, I expect her to be sitting 3 lengths back between Sheer Drama and I’m A Chatterbox. Trailing the field will be Salama, Got Lucky, Warren’s Vaneda, and Peace and War.

The pace will be hot, setting up nicely for the closers. However, they’ll have to navigate a wall of horses in front of them entering the stretch and will likely need to go 6 or 7 wide to get clear running room. This then becomes a test of class, and a blanket finish may be possible. Got Lucky will have a wonderful pace set up and certainly cannot be ignored to win here. Despite the very fast pace early, the wide trip and class test are going to make things very challenging for the deep closers. The winner will likely come from the stalking group, with the best chance to the one who can find a clear path entering the stretch.

Given the preps, the training, and the likely pace, I’m going to pick an upset win for Yahilwa, with Sheer Drama, Got Lucky, and Salama rounding out the superfecta. My bets will be as follows:

$10 W/P/S on the #10 (Yahilwa)

$1 Trifecta with 10/14/7 with 1/10/12/14 with 1/3/8/10/12/14

$5 straight exacta with 10 over 14