Kentucky Derby Point System - A Recap

Now that the sun has set on the 2013 Triple Crown season, I find myself reflecting on the first complete year of the Kentucky Derby Point System. When first announced, opinions for the system were as widespread as the results, but looking back I do not think any of us can say the system yielded a bad race.

The Opinions:

When the points system was first announced, everyone had a viewpoint that was either for or against. Some denounced the system because it put virtually no emphasis on the 2-year-old season and left out the Illinois Derby, which has served as a critical Derby prep race in the past. I for one, was a huge supporter of the points system because it did put emphasis on 3 year old form, and if there was going to be a “win and you’re in” scenario, it might as well be with horses peaking at the right time in their careers.

The Results:

The Wynn Casino in Las Vegas pegged the over-under of the points required to enter the derby at 29.5 throughout most of the winter and early spring of this year. As it turns out Giant Finish slipped in the 20^th spot with only a point tally of 10. Fear the Kitten was a mere 24 hours away from entering the gates with 6 points had Black Onyx’s team discovered his untimely injury just a little bit sooner.

The Strategy:

Using points to decide the field certainly changed the strategies of many of the trainers and connections leading up to the race. A perfect example is Shanghai Bobby, who was definitely on the Derby Trail until his disappointing 5^th place finish in the Florida Derby. The ironic thing is that the 24 points he had going into the race would ultimately have gotten him into the Kentucky Derby had he skipped the Florida Derby. Although it was never the plan for the horse to skip the race, the 5^th place finish and uncertainty of 24 points being enough, the connections announced that the Juvenile Champion would not be pointed to Churchill and would instead focus on the second half of his 3-year-old season. Adversely, look at a horse like Palace Malice, who unexpectedly wheeled back 2 weeks after the Louisiana Derby to get the necessary points in the Blue Grass Stakes.

The Field Sizes:

I hope I am not in the minority in that I am ecstatic that just about every single major Derby Prep had a double digit field size. This is great for the tracks because larger fields typically lead to larger betting handles and spectator turnout. This is great for the horses because it gives them a taste for the chaos that is the 20 horse cavalry charge down the Churchill straight at the start of the Derby. It is great for the trainers, because they learn more about the weaknesses of their horses and what they still need to do to prepare their mount for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby. There really is no loser here, expect for the horse that got stuck on the rail, had to swing wide, or got held up in traffic. But guess what…that’s racing.

The Injuries:

Fortunately there were minimal injuries leading up to this year’s big race, and even fewer that were career ending (or worse). Is this a coincidence? Perhaps. But I like to believe this has more to do with staying distance horses being trained for the race, rather than successful, speedy 2 year olds being extended beyond their means. There were still a few disappointing drop-outs: the afore mentioned Black Onyx, Hear the Ghost, I’ve Struck a Nerve, and Flashback to name a few. However, for the most part all the horses that ran in the Derby will be seen later this summer and fall and are still expected to compete at high levels of competition. This is perhaps, the best indicator that the points system did something right.

Future Changes:

Although it worked very well this year, the system isn’t perfect. The Illinois Derby needs to be a point qualifying prep race. I would like to see larger point values assigned to early 3-year-old races. Currently, early prep races are only worth 10 points, which are equal to all 2-year-old races. I say, bump the early 3-year-old preps up to 20 points to put even larger emphasis on 3 year-old-form. I would like to see a more even point spread of the finishers. Currently points are distributed to the top 4 finishers, with a very heavy skew toward the winner. I would like to see an increase of points for the 2^nd and 3^rd place finishers, given the increased difficulty of the races when the field size is 10-14.

Preparing for Next Year:

As the fresh crop of juveniles start to emerge this summer, we can only think which ones will be a household name next May. The point system essentially makes all early juvenile races nothing more than foundation builders for the hopefully long career that will be ahead of the next Kentucky Derby winner. I expect to see trainers more calculating of the routes for their horses, and many that accumulate any points at all will be prepared as if they will enter the starting gate the first Saturday in May.

The Unknown:

The Kentucky Derby will always remain the crown jewel for horsemen across the country. However, now that quarter horse speed as a 2 year old can no longer clinch a spot the ultimate experience of American racing, there will be backlash. And I expect this backlash to be hardest felt in the breeding sheds. Horses known to pass stamina to their progeny will likely start to see increases in stud fees. Hopefully we may start to see a shift of desire from precocious youngsters to battle hardened stayers that can follow the footsteps of their Triple-Crown winning ancestors.

Now that Triple-Crown mania has subsided, what do you think about the points system?