2012 Breeders' Cup Marathon: A Handicapper's Perspective

How on earth am I going to try to handicap the 2012 Breeders' Cup Marathon?  I'll give it my best shot, and would love for additional comments that could add some other insight.  There is not much of a statistical foundation, but in its previous 4 runnings, the average payoff has been $37.50, including Afleet Again’s monstrous $85.20 long shot win.  Of the 4 winners, the lowest odds fell upon the 2009 winner, Man of Iron who was the betting 4^th choice at about 6-1.  Apparently the betting public has had trouble handicapping this race as well… 

Maybe “conventional” handicapping is not completely applicable when we venture into the realm of 14 furlongs on dirt with very little staying distance races to base the majority of the field off of.  I’m going to take a screening approach and follow up with a conventional approach.  Then, we’ll take a look at who makes the cut.

Let’s leave out Afleet Again for a moment, as he certainly doesn’t fit the mold that the other 3 winners did prior to their wins.  For the other 3 winners (Muhannak, Man of Iron, and Eldaafer), each of them had won their most recent prep race regardless of distance or surface.  In fact, these horses all won 2 of their previous 3 races. Afleet Again didn’t quite fit this “criteria.”

In his last prep race, Afleet Again finished a fast closing 2^nd.  But, looking farther back in his past performances he had to strong showings at 1 ½ miles earlier in the summer, which were won by the Marathon 1^st and 2^nd betting choices.  He may have not won any of his preps, but the late kicks in his 1 ½ miles should have been a clue to suggesting he might be worth a hail mary at 41-1.  But, hindsight is 20/20, right?

My analysis shows pace did not have much of a factor in any of the results, however, the pace setter has never won this race.  Running position and post position also do not show direct correlation to winning, but all the winners did get clean trips and never really had to overcome any type of adversity.

Ok, enough of the past, lets try to unlock the riddle of this year’s Marathon.  Based on the trends of the winners above, I am going to look for winners of most recent prep races (criteria 1), check if any of these horses have won 2 of their previous 3 races (criteria 2), and focus specifically on horses that have competed at 12+ furlongs in the past 5 months (criteria 3).  Just as a reference, of the 4 previous winners, Eldaafer (2010) is the only horse to have met all 3.

For this years field, the 3 criteria I explained above break down as follows:

Criteria 1

Calidoscopio, Commander, Not Abroad, and Worth Repeating

Criteria 2

Calidoscopio, Commander

Criteria 3

Atigun, Balladry, Calidoscopio, Eldaafer, Fame and Glory, Juniper Pass, Not Abroad, Romp, Sense of Purpose, Worth Repeating

This means the instant tosses are Almudena, Grassy, and Jaycito.

Looking at a more conventional handicapping strategy, there are a few standouts I would like to address.  The first is Commander.  Although never racing a distance of 12 furlongs or longer, he has won 6 straight races, with his most recent coming at 1 3/8 miles.  As the saying goes, “never leave the table while its hot.” Winning 6 in a row doesn’t happen by accident, especially when each race was as long or longer than its predecessor.

Next is the 2011 European Champion Stayer, Fame and Glory.  Let me repeat that.  The 2011 European Champion Stayer.  And in case you forgot, 14 furlongs is a staying race.  Granted, all of Fame and Glory’s experience is on turf, and his 2012 form has been a little weaker than the powerhouse he was in 2011.  However, he has won on good/firm, good, good/soft, yielding, and heavy surfaces showing he’s adaptable to quite a range of racing surfaces.  He also showed a strong move after 14 furlongs in the Qipco Long Distance Cup 10 days ago.

Other interesting entries include Juniper Pass and Sense of Purpose, who have both won at the distance on 14 furlongs, but did so back in 2011 on turf.  They also have not posted a win in over a year, but Juniper Pass did finish a very game 2^nd in the Bulldog Handicap at Fresno a couple of weeks ago.  Could he be coming into good form at the right time…aka Afleet Again style?

Atigun looks to have a stayer’s form during his races, with his best performances in stakes company coming at the classic distances of 10 and 12 furlongs, both of which he was raced wide.  He didn’t lose significant ground on the leaders in the Belmont Stakes or the recent Jockey Club Gold Cup, and if he can be forwardly placed with his #1 post position, he may make some noise at the finish.  I am not sure if he can win this race, but he certainly looks like he should be included in exotics.

Calidoscopio is very interesting being the only “Win and you’re in” entry in the 14 horse field.  He has raced primarily middle to staying distance races over dirt in his career in Argentina, and is coming into this race off a victory in the afore mentioned General Belgrano Stakes.  The 4-month layoff may be a bit of a turnoff, but he has been acclimating to the Southern California climate nicely, training in Hollywood Park and Santa Anita since mid August where he recently posted a nice 1 mile breeze.  One other note is that in the Marathon, he will be carrying 126 lbs which is a nice change of pace considering the average of 132 lbs per start back in South America.

Not Abroad is coming into this race with a very powerful 4 length score in the Maryland Million Classic Stakes, and finished 2^nd to Redeemed at 1 ½ miles in the Greenwood Cup this summer.  His worst performance this year was a 4^th place finish in the Brooklyn Handicap, where Redeemed won by 10 lengths. 

Worth Repeating will possibly be one of the post favorites for this race coming off of a 5-length romp in the Ralph M. Hinds handicap.  Aside from being his most impressive win this year, it was also his only routing race run over conventional dirt in 2012.  His last routing race over dirt was the 12 furlong 2011 Tokyo City Cup at Santa Anita, which he also won. 

Last, but not least, is the seasoned veteran Eldaafer.  He has shown solid form lately with a 3^rd place finish to Pool Play in the Hawthorne Gold Cup and a win in the Carl Handford Memorial Stakes.  He has beaten many of the horses in this field, but the question is if he can find the stamina he had in 2010 when he captured the victory.

I see Commander setting the pace of this race with Juniper Pass, Worth Repeating, Fame and Glory, and Eldaafer pressing him the majority of the way.  This adds and interesting twist to the pace setup as all 5 of these horses are ones I could consider possibilities to win.  That being said, they are all experienced, and a speed dual of any kind virtually eliminates any chance of victory, so I still expect a soft pace. 

I will predict the first ¾ going in 1:15, with the 1 ¼ being breezed through in about 2:07.  This pace could set up beautifully for the off–the-pace types like Calidoscopio, Not Abroad, and Atigun.  I expect them to start to pick up momentum at ½ mile pole, but the question is if they can get past the stalking group.   Coming into the stretch, there will be about 4 or 5 horses all battling for the win, in which I will say Calidoscopio comes out on top, edging out Not Abroad and Fame and Glory.

My wagers are likely to go as follows:

I intend to start a pick 3, likely singling Executiveprivilege in the Juvenile Fillies, so that leaves me a few extra options for the Marathon.   I will be picking Calidoscopio, Worth Repeating, Not Abroad, Fame and Glory, and Commander.

My pick 5 ticket will include Calidoscopio, Not Abroad, and Fame and Glory.

$5 win bet on Juniper Pass

$2 Exacta: Calidoscopio/Fame and Glory/Not Abroad with Calidoscopio/Not Abroad/Worth Repeating/Commander/Atigun