Head to Head: Lexington may reveal new Triple Crown faces

Laurie

Ashley

1.   Hard as Life (30-1)

Hard as Life returns from a four-month vacation, stepping up in class, stretching out in distance and trying a new surface. Gun Runner’s son is out of the multiple-winning turf mare Dreaming as Always. None of Hard as Life’s two half-siblings have won beyond a mile but have won on dirt. Their second dam is multiple stakes-placed at 1 1/8 miles. A deep closer, Hard as Life hasn’t been a threat in four of his eight starts, and his Brisnet Speed Ratings are how I like my weather, in the mid-70s. Pass.

Trained by Michelle Nihei, Hard as Life never has raced on traditional dirt. He made his first four starts on turf, breaking his maiden in his fourth start. His last two races were at Turfway Park on Tapeta, and he enters off a sixth-place finish in the Leonatus Stakes. Leonatus runner-up Chunk of Gold made the transition to dirt successfully, earning his way into the Kentucky Derby field with runner-up efforts in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). Nihei hasn’t won a graded stakes since 2013 and has a 20% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. Sophie Doyle has the call. Pass.

2.   Bracket Buster (20-1)

Bracket Buster returns to the scene of his only victory, where he flashed modest potential while running on the wrong lead. Most of the maiden field he beat are on their way to becoming career maidens, although a few escaped to the optional-claiming level. Those who dipped their hooves into stakes races were sorely disappointed. Vicky Oliver has given Bracket Buster a trio of five-furlong works at Payson Park in the 1:03 range. By leading first- and second-crop sire Vekoma, Bracket Buster is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Spring Dance. The mare’s half-sister is the hard-knocking Power of Sunner, a multiple stakes winner from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Bracket Buster’s Brisnet ratings are low, although perhaps he’ll continue the in-and-out-of-the-money form he flashed last year. I don’t see him busting anybody’s bracket in the Lexington. Pass.

Trained by Victoria Oliver, Bracket Buster hasn’t been seen since finishing fifth in the Street Sense (G3) on Oct. 27. The colt is 4: 1-0-1 with his sole victory coming here at Keeneland. The Street Sense form has held up well. Winner Sovereignty won the Fountain of Youth (G2) next out before finishing second in the Florida Derby. Runner-up Tiztastic has since been third in both the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and the Southwest (G3) and won the Louisiana Derby. Third-place finisher Sandman has since been second in the Southwest, third in the Rebel (G2), and won the Arkansas Derby (G1). Oliver is just 2% wins with a 17% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past five years. She’s also 0% wins with a 18% in-the-money clip with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff over the last year. Manny Franco has the call and has been riding hot with a 19% win rate and 64% in-the-money clip over the last 30 days. I don’t think this colt will win, but he is a solid price play. Live long shot underneath.

3.   Bullard (9-2)

Bob Hope (G3) hero Bullard is the class of the race. He bested Madaket Road but was no match for Barnes in the San Vicente (G2). After a few months off, the Mike McCarthy trainee recorded multiple five-furlong works for his comeback. He had a pre-race five-furlong breeze in 1:01.00 in company with older turf router Phosphorescence. Under his own power, without urging, Bullard refused to be passed in the lane and quickened his pace near the wire while Phosphorescence was pushed. Bullard continued an additional untimed furlong. Gun Runner’s son is out of the unraced Warrior’s Reward mare Reve d'Amour. His half-sister Mundaye Call is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and she set a track record of 1:21.17 for seven furlongs at Ellis Park in 2020 in the Audubon Oaks. Bullard’s female family is anchored by his third and fourth dams Blush With Pride and Best in Show. He hails from the same family as Belmont Stakes winners Arcangelo, Rags to Riches and Jazil. Bullard’s speed ratings are competitive. Contender.

Trained by Mike McCarthy, Bullard enters off a third-place effort in the San Vicente. Prior to that he won the Bob Hope (G3) decisively, beating Madaket Road who went on to be third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), second in the Rebel and fourth in the Florida Derby. Bullard has never tried two turns and has been off for three months. McCarthy is 21% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate with runners off a two to six-month layoff, 19% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners and 22% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past year, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli ships east with the colt. Contender.

4.   Rolando (6-1)

Ran in Lafayette on Monday.

5.   Native Runner (15-1)

After four dismal efforts, Native Runner suddenly matured in February. He made a sustained, one-paced drive to nail the pacesetter on the wire. Native Runner’s running style changed in his next start, an optional-claiming starter event. Native Runner was rank behind horses while stuck on the rail, and Jose Ortiz decided to let the horse run. It was a good call as Native Runner relaxed once he was on the pace. He turned back a couple of tepid challenges in the stretch and one-paced it to the wire, 4 1/4 lengths in front. The Ken McPeek trainee’s Brsinet Speed Rating jumped 14 points to 91, a 14-point jump, and his 95 late-pace figure is the highest in the Lexington field. Laoban’s son is out of a Bernardini mare. Native Runner’s half-brother is a Grade 1 winner in Mexico, and their second dam, Cloud Scapes, is a multiple Grade 3 winner on the lawn. Native Runner could regress off his last, or perhaps he’s turned a corner. His last two breezes are quicker, and he posted a pre-race bullet four-furlong move in 47.20, positive signs. But he might earn a minor award while he isn’t fast enough to grab the lead. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, it took Native Runner five tries and a drop into claiming company to break his maiden. The lightbulb must have gone off because he followed that win with another in a starter optional claimer, earning a career-best 93 Equibase speed figure. As Laurie said, Native Runner has displayed two run styles in his last two starts. Coming from off the pace is his normal modus operandi, but he ran the best race of his career when dictating his own terms. Jose Ortiz, who was aboard in the colt’s last start, has the return call. Exotics.

6.   Gosger (7-2)

Gosger hit it out of the ballpark when he beat a herd of lightly raced maidens at Gulfstream, including two next-out winners. The pretty gray colt had a wide pace-pressing trip but was in command by the 1/4 pole. He crossed the wire 1 1/2 lengths in front, completing a mile in 1:37.54 with a slow 13.36 final furlong. The effort was good enough for a 93 Brisnet rating and a decent 91 late-pace figure. Nyquist’s son is a half to Grade 1-winning turf mare Harvey’s Lil Goil. Their unraced dam is a half to 2012 Kentucky Derby hero I’ll Have Another. Brendan Walsh gave Gosger a second-to-last four-furlong move in 47.29, quicker than previous works, which is a good sign. Gosger ships, faces winners and adds distance, generally negatives. But he had plenty of time to recover from his effort and doesn’t face a triple-A field. Contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gosger is 2: 1-1-0 lifetime. He hit the gate in his debut and raced at the back of the field. He put in a solid effort to get up for second but couldn’t run down the winner. In his second race, he was closer to the front, resulting in a 1 1/2-length win. Both starts were at Gulfstream, and he had two different jockeys. He’ll get a third jockey when Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the reins Saturday. Ortiz typically pairs well with pace setters and pressers, so I think Gosger can only take another step forward here. Contender.

7.   Praetor (2-1)

Praetor held on to best Sovereignty in September by a neck at Aqueduct. After almost four months off, the Chad Brown trainee logged a series of consistent four-furlong breezes at Payson Park. He returned to competition in March, presiding over allowance types in what was essentially a paid workout as Tyler Gaffalione never asked for his best. Praetor galloped home 7 1/2 lengths in front, completing a mile in 1:36.59 with a 13.30 final furlong. His Brisnet figure was a low 87. Into Mischief’s son is out of the multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler Curlin’s Approval. The mare is the most accomplished in the distaff line. Praetor wasn’t asked for his best against an over-classed field. He’ll face other pacesetters, but they don’t have his speed. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Praetor was third in his debut, finishing 7 3/4 lengths behind the late Ferocious, who would go on to place in a pair of Grade 1s. He beat Street Sense and Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty in his second start. He had a fiv-month-plus layoff before he returned in an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park in March. The colt didn’t miss a beat, winning by 7 1/2 lengths. Although Praetor has looked good winning, his speed figures leave a little something to be desired. Flavien Prat reunites with the colt after missing his last start. Exotics.

8.   Hypnus (6-1)

After two dismal efforts in the Rebel and Louisiana Derby, Hypnus gets a set of blinkers, a new rider and a drop in class. The Ken McPeek trainee also posted a pre-race bullet four-furlong move here in 47.20, likely in company with Native Runner. Into Mischief’s son is out of Uncle Mo’s daughter Dream Tree, the 2017 Starlet (G1) heroine who also captured two Grade 2 events at 3. Dream Tree’s full sister bore a stakes-placed miler by Into Mischief’s son, Practical Joke. The addition of blinkers might put Hypnus into the race earlier, and if he lives up to his breeding, it should be against this field. Long-shot exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Hypnus won his debut but then finished seventh in both the Rebel and the Louisiana Derby. Hypnus will get class relief here as the foes he faced at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park were formidable. McPeek is also adding blinkers and is 15% wins with a 35% in-the-money clip with first time blinkers. Luis Saez will take over from regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. Exotics.

9.   Touchy (8-1)

Ran in Lafayette on Monday