Mohawk Raceway full-card analysis and "Drive On Bets"
If you have followed this blog the past 3 Saturdays you should be ahead barrels full of cash betting the Mohawk harness races. Last Saturday night, we gave out the winning late pick 4 that returned $506 on the $72 ticket. Here’s tonight’s full-card analysis followed by the “Drive On bets” segment. We’re hoping to make you (and us) some more money! Race 1: Trot, purse $20,000 (DD, EX, P3, TR) 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 6) RACES OR $72,500 LIFETIME There is a horse in here at a big morning line price that intrigues us. The #7 Strategy changed just that last time and gunned out for the lead. Unfortunately, several others had the same idea and he was under siege as soon as he made front. He had little room down the lane and although finishing 6th, it was his best race of the year thus far. Definitely worth a stab at a price, # 10 Dancehall Mistress took a mark of 1:55.4 last year at Mohawk as a 3YO filly and comes in off a productive 2013 debut in a Preferred at Grand River 10 days ago. Price will be good from the outer slot. #9 Money Maven owns the fastest life’s mark in the race and took it at Mohawk in his last race. Condren fits this one well and will likely gun for the top again. Race 2: Pace, purse $18,000 (EX, P3, TR) BEAT THE HEAT PACING SERIES - 1ST LEG - 4 YEAR OLDS & OLDER. NW $25,000 IN 2013 AS OF MAY 31, 2013. W/O $100,000 IN 2012 N.E.
This looks like a very competitive dash with many possibilities. That being said, we’ll give the nod to #1 Windfall Blue Chip, who tipped his hand with a 53.2 back half in his return to the races last week. The cover flow in that race was non-existent, likely due to the accelerating pace in the 2nd half. Expect Oliver to put this one into the race much earlier. #2 Silver Eagle ships in from Pocono where he has been gaining fitness vs. better stock. #5 JJ Shark has a similar profile to the Eagle and is also dangerous.
Race 3: Trot, purse $12,500 (EX, P3, TR) NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
#3 Can I Say put up some big fractions two back in this class en-route to an easy font-stepping win. Then he stepped up to face the white hot All Cantab who dusted him off rather easily. We love the “drop back to where he won angle” and it certainly fits with this guy,. Expecting a big speed try here. #2 Talbotcreek Jeweley will likely be a big price but is not without a shot, especially if Filion can secure the pocket early behind Can I Say; using in exactas. #4 House Money was far more productive in 2012 but rebounded with a nice score at Georgian Downs 11 days ago. Also worth including on exacta tickets.
Race 4: Pace, purse $16,000 (EX, P3, TR, Y4) FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
Tough leg to figure to start out the early pick 4 and we’ll be using quite a few of them. #8 Laneside Lexus was an absolute monster when she first arrived here from Great Britain last year beating much better and the 9YO pacing mare is a legend back home. A trainer change prior to her last race seemed to ignite a better result and even better things tonight would be no surprise. #2 Jenna Casimir showed dramatic improvement first off the claim for Dean Nixon - no reason why she can’t race well here, too. #9 Lets Go Get Em comes out of a very fast heat won by the classy Waasmula. There are no Waasmula’s in here.
Race 5: Trot, purse $20,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 6) RACES OR $72,500 LIFETIME. AE: GRASSROOTS STARTERS IN 2013.
Another tough heat to figure with numerous possibilities, The #5 Creampuff Macpaddy, $284,000 earner, is likely to be overbet in here relative to his chances of winning. Using in the P4 and trying to beat all the same. #`1 Thankyoukessel, a personal favorite of track announcer Ken Middleton, may get a golden trip from the rail with his good early speed. #6 Designer Genes will be closing latest and fastest. Big fractions will help him greatly.
Race 6: Pace, purse $16,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $22,500 LAST 10 STARTS.
#5 Goban returned from Pocono and destroyed a field a class lower last Saturday. It was the easiest of wins. Merits promotion to this class. #1 Cams Tux returns to the 7-day rotation tonight and some early battling for the lead would greatly enhance his chances. #2 D Terminata faced much better last week and almost stole it on the front end. Using.
Race 7: Pace, purse $20,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) NW $16,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
#2 Ideal Race was stymied by slow early fractions and dead cover last week and still fird home in 53.3. Looks like there is lots of pace to chase in here and A Mac should be able to get him into the race 2nd-over. Here’s our pick 4 single. #5 Astor came through for us big time two back with a 148.4 mile - using on smaller tickets. #1 Hilarious Halo has been in excellent form the past month. 10/1 morning line looks juicy.
Race 8: Pace, purse $30,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR, Z4) FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED. A very competitive F & M Preferred kicks off the late Pick 4 and we like #8 Farmers Tuition’s chances to extend the win streak for Moreau/Filion. She has done very little wrong since the barn change and figures to get a good stalking trip from the outer post. #1 Big McDeal was fried up early at Tioga in a world record-equalling mile,. She won’t be going 52.3 to the half here and may get a great trip. The classy Shelliscape, #3, makes her 2nd 2013 start and was favored against many of these last time. Trip and pace doomed her but she still finished a close 3rd. She’s very dangerous in here. Race 9: Pace, purse $18,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) BEAT THE HEAT PACING SERIES - 1ST LEG - 4 YEAR OLDS & OLDER. #6 Winbak Warrior kept his good current form with a fine 2nd to strong first-up winner Reibercrombie last Saturday. He’s one of the ones in here, 3% Pieraz comes out of the same race and wasn’t far behind the Warrior. Rates a glance. #4 Rhombus ships in from Harrah’s Philly where he has been facing better than these on a consistent basis. He and the Z should be on your pick 4 tickets. Race 10: Pace, purse $34,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) PREFERRED.
#5 Camaes Fellow raced huge from the 10-hole in the Mohawk Gold Cup and only a 25.2 last ¼ by Warawee Needy could get him beat. Rates highly in here and should be on all P4 tickets. #7 Bigtime Ball, the classy veteran, was too far back in the Gold Cup yet also fired home in 25.2. Expect him to be closer early tonight. 3^ Michaels Power, the 2012 Little Brown Jug winner, returns to the racing wars as an older horse for the first time. Obviously he figures, but these are no easy pickings.
Race 11: Pace, purse $16,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR) NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $22,500 LAST 10 STARTS.
#6 Uncle Goodfellow has been in great form since the barn change 4 races back and figures highly again. #1 Lifeimitatesart has always had talent, fits in here at a price and could trip out from the rail. #2 Rock Camroller is a win-shy type but had a good result for Davis Jr. last week and could upset these with a good trip. Race 12: Pace, purse $18,000 (EX, LD, SU, TR) BEAT THE HEAT PACING SERIES - 1ST LEG - 4 YEAR OLDS & OLDER: This race looks somewhat chalky as the #2 The Ladies Man and #6 That’s The Life both rate highly in a nondescript field. One you may want to take a poke on is the #7 Bestinthebusiness who was very good here last summer with Oullette driving, and took a life’s mark of 149.4 here. #8 Beach Buff is a great horse for the 3rd and 4th rung of the Super. He’s always in there somewhere. Race 13: Pace, purse $12,500 (EX, SU, TR) NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 10 STARTS. #2 Viper Select paced a monster last ¼ in his first start in the Demers stable. Looks very live here. #4 Wildcat Art moves into the lowest conditioned class following some good results in claimers. Upset potential. #9 Monster In Law should be blasting from the outset for Xeron and is a wire-to-wire threat. DRIVE ON BETS: Starting bankroll: $2,000 Current bankroll: $4392.30 (+ $2393.30) Race 1: $5 exacta box 7-9-10; $10 DD 7,9,10/1, $10 DD 7-1: total $70 Race 3: $2 Tri 3/24/all; $2 Tri 3/all/24: total = $64 Race 4: $..60 Pick 4: 12489/13567/12589/2 = $75; $.20 Pick 4 12489/13567/12589/135 = $75 - total $150 Race 8: $1 Pick 4: 138/456/5/125610 = $45 Race 12: $1 Super 26/26/34578/34578; 26/34578/26/34578 = $80; $40 DD 2-2, 6-2; $20 DD 7-2: Total = $180 Total wagered = $509 Current bankroll: $3883.30