Division rankings: Late stakes could impact Eclipse ballot

Eclipse Award voting instructions went out nearly two weeks ago, reminding voters to wait until after Thursday's Grade 1 races at Santa Anita before casting their ballots. Personally, I’d go a step further. No ballot should be submitted until every late-season graded stakes across the country has been run.

Unfortunately, many voters barely glance at these year-end races, assuming the top spots on their ballots are already locked in. But for me, the no. 2 and no. 3 spots carry just as much weight. 

Being an Eclipse Award finalist is no small feat. Sometimes, it’s the crowning achievement for connections who might never get another shot at the big stage. That’s why I see it as my responsibility to evaluate every contender, right down to the wire. The stakes this week at Santa Anita and Gulfstream might not seem monumental to some, but they could carry significant implications for the Eclipse Awards. Voters, take note.

Two horses that I have ranked as no. 1 in their divisions are in action this week, and their performances could either solidify their top spots or throw a wrench into the divisional rankings. Meanwhile, a few others are teetering on the edge of my ballot, with their fates very much riding on how they show up, or don’t, in their races.

The 3-year-old filly division is where the results could shake things up the most on my ballot. This is how they stack up as of this writing. Thorpedo Anna sits comfortably at no. 1, not just on my list but likely on everyone’s. But depending on how things play out, the next few spots could see changes.

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Distaff, she cruised to victory over a weak field. Although her 2024 season was impressive, she faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division. She’ll win Horse of the Year, but the hyperbole is somewhat over the top. She’s likely the best since Monomoy Girl in 2018.

2. Power Squeeze. She was seventh in the Cotillion (G1) behind Thorpedo Anna but won the Alabama (G1) by a head over Candied. With three graded-stakes wins this season, she runs this week in the Rampart (G2) at Gulfstream against Soul of an Angel.

3. Candied. She was third in the Breeders' Cup Distaff and the Spinster after Grade 1 runner-up finishes to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama. She's consistently close, but her only win from six starts this season came in the Lady's Secret at Monmouth.

4. Sugar Fish. She finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff but won the Zenyatta (G2) and Summertime Oaks (G2). A win in the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita could earn her a spot on my Eclipse ballot.

5. Gun Song. She narrowly lost to Tarifa in the Mother Goose (G2) and almost upset the Cotillion after a strong rally. With just one graded win this year, she seems to be improving.

Next five: Tarifa, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Sugar Fish has the most to gain in the La Brea. With two graded-stakes wins this year, she’ll face tough competition, including the unbeaten Hope Road and Kinza making her first start since April. A victory here would add a Grade 1 win to Sugar Fish’s resume, likely pushing her past Candied on my Eclipse ballot. 

The no. 2 ranked horse in the division, Power Squeeze, is in action at Gulfstream in the Rampart (G2), where she’ll face off against the current Female Sprint leader, Soul of an Angel. This is her ninth start of 2024, a stat I love to see in this era of racing. Three graded-stakes wins, including the Alabama, have cemented her place on my ballot. Win or lose in the Rampart, she’s been a steady performer in the big events and deserves her spot. 

Candied (No. 3) has the most to lose. Despite winning only once from six starts, she earned extra credit from me for consistently stepping up to face the best in Grade 1 company. She’s placed in four of those five Grade 1 races, but now with no more chances to improve her case, her standing is more vulnerable than ever.

3-year-old males

The Malibu (G1) featuring Mystik Dan won’t change my Eclipse ballot, but a win could certainly boost him to No. 4 in my rankings below. As for the sprinters ranked lower, such as Bentornado and Raging Torrent, they could climb with strong performances, but they’re not cracking my top three.

1. Sierra Leone. He brought his A game in the Breeders' Cup Classic, beating Fierceness and Forever Young decisively. Critics claiming luck are wrong. Metrics confirm he ran the best race, covering extra ground while early leaders filled the board. He deserves the Eclipse and may target the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Saudi Cup (G1) next.

2. Fierceness. He ran a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, backing up two earlier Grade 1 wins that spark Eclipse debate with Sierra Leone. The decision is far from settled. Likely off until spring.

3. Dornoch. With no excuses in the Travers (G1), he sat off slow fractions but still boasts wins in the Belmont and Haskell (G1). Retired early, he'd make my top three Eclipse contenders if voting ended today.

4. Forever Young. Surprisingly, Forever Young found himself near the blistering pace of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, far from his usual late-running style. Although he lacked his trademark late kick, he still finished third, beaten by less than three lengths. It’s clear he’s among the elite in this division. Pointing for the Saudi and Dubai races.

5. Seize the Grey. Never led in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, finishing eighth, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. The Preakness winner had a solid season, ending 9: 4-0-1, and is now retired.

Next five: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Domestic Product, Locked, Catching Freedom

Female sprinters

Soul of an Angel earned her top spot by winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and frankly, no one else in this division has bothered to take the reins. In fact, no horse has won more than two graded sprint stakes on dirt this season. Right now, this is where we stand:

1. Soul of an Angel. Closed fast to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. With 10 strong races this year, including wins in the Princess Rooney (G3) and Ruffian (G2), she’s earned my Eclipse vote in a division lacking a standout. She’ll race in the Rampart Stakes on Thursday.

2. Society. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, she was just a half-length short. Before that, she won the Ballerina (G1) over Vahva and Scylla. She was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

3. Alva Starr. Was 3-for-4 on the season, including a win in the Madison (G1). She was runner up to Vahva in the Derby City Distaff (G1) as well. Although she suffered a catastrophic injury during training and had to be euthanized, she isn't forgotten by me and could end up on my Eclipse ballot.

4. Vahva. Disappointed with an eighth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and third in the Ballerina but stays ranked for earlier wins, including the Chicago (G3) and Derby City Distaff (G1). She also finished second in the Madison (G1) in April.

5. Sweet Azteca. She was off the board at 1-9 odds in the Chillingworth (G3) but had been dominant before, winning four of five starts. When at her best, she's one of the top in the division.

Next five: Ways and Means, Scylla, Spirit Wind, Pleasant, One Magic Philly

Can Soul of an Angel lose her top spot if she drops the Rampart? After scrutinizing the top 15 contenders, I can confidently say no one has quite earned the right to leapfrog her. Sure, a loss wouldn’t be ideal, but the fact remains that she’s the reigning Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champ and no one in this division has proven strong enough to dethrone her. 

Turf males

Lastly, we have Johannes, my no. 1 turf male, running in the San Gabriel (G2). These are my turf male rankings heading into the final week of the season.

1. Johannes. Finished second in the Breeders' Cup Mile, behind only More Than Looks. With four graded-stakes wins this season, including the Shoemaker Mile (G1), he's my current Eclipse choice. He runs in the San Gabriel (G2) on Thursday.

2. Carl Spackler. He finished sixth in the Breeders' Cup Mile, just over two lengths back, but maintains this spot because of his solid season, including two Grade 1 wins.

3. Far Bridge. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, beaten by five lengths, but had a strong two-race win streak prior, scoring in the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1).

4. More Than Looks. With only one win in 2024 and two runner-up finishes, he won’t make No. 1. Now retired, he falls short of my top three on the Eclipse ballot.

5. Cogburn. After going 3-for-3 this season, he dropped the ball in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, finishing a lackluster fifth. Given that, he likely deserved an even bigger drop.

Next five: Measured Time, Master of the Seas, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott, Nation’s Pride

A loss here won’t knock Johannes from the top of my rankings, but it’s an opportunity for those ranked below him to garner support. Although my top spot is safe, I can easily see other voters turning their attention elsewhere if he loses the San Gabriel as the 4-5 favorite. My top three spots on the ballot are set in stone.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. I will reluctantly give him my Eclipse vote. His two major Grade 1 wins and a near miss in another outshine all others.

2. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy, but like many South American imports, he was slow to adapt. The California Crown (G1) winner had just hit his stride as a divisional contender before injury sidelined him until next season

3. Newgate. He’s been solid in five U.S. starts this season, winning the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and narrowly missing in the California Crown. A strong fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic proved his worth.

4. Highland Falls. He flopped in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing ninth, 14 lengths back. Before that, he shined in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). He notched three wins from seven starts in 2024, including the Blame (G3). Still, his solid season can't erase that poor Classic showing

5. Hit Show. Crossed the wire third in the Clark (G2) at Churchill, a performance that felt underwhelming for a horse riding a streak of four wins in five starts, including a hat trick of graded-stakes victories.

Next five: Señor Buscador, Full Serrano, Tapit Trice, Arthur's Ride, Rattle N Roll

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Her retirement before the Breeders' Cup Distaff was a letdown. She repeated in the Spinster (G1) and impressed me more in defeat than in some of her wins this season. She earns my Eclipse vote, though Adare Manor was close behind.

2. Adare Manor. Though retired, she stays in the rankings. Her Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win showed heart and a new gear, storming past a tough field. With two Grade 1 wins and a 3-for-4 record, she is a clear second on my Eclipse ballot.

3. Raging Sea. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she delivered as expected. Her season highlight was upsetting Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1).

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season.

5. Sweet Azteca. Stunningly was off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Didn’t run in the Breeders’ Cup.

Next five: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

Turf females

1. Moira. Her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf win gave her a long-awaited Grade 1, but this division lacks a dominant female. Although she's a deserving contender, I’m not convinced she’s Eclipse-worthy with just one Grade 1 win. In the 45-year history of this award, only four have taken it with only one Grade 1 win.

2. Didia. She bounced back from two subpar races to finish a close third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, just half a length behind the winner. The Just a Game (G1) winner returns to the top five and will race in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January.

3. Gina Romantica. She ran a strong second in the Matriarch (G1), losing by a neck to Sacred Wish, and impressed with a win in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. A three-time Grade 1 winner at Keeneland, she is now retired.

4. War Like Goddess. She finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, just over two lengths behind Moira, and was runner-up to Far Bridge in the Joe Hirsch. With one win from five starts this season, she had an outstanding career and is now retired.

5. Whitebeam. She ran a disappointing ninth in the First Lady, dropping her from the top spot. During the summer, she won the Diana (G1) against a strong field and was runner-up in two graded stakes.

Next five: Anisette, Sacred Wish, Chili Flag, Beauté Cachée, Beautiful Love

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Despite a close second in the Pat O’Brien (G2), his first loss in six starts this season, his record remains impressive, 19 wins from 25 starts, 18 in stakes. Missed the Breeders' Cup but went 5-for-6 this year, including the Bing Crosby (G1). He gets my Eclipse vote in this division.

2. Straight No Chaser. Won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024 but can't be ranked on top. His only other win was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), with an off-the-board finish in the Runhappy (G3).

3. Mullikin. Finished second in the Cigar Mile (G2) behind Locked after a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He earned his first Grade 1 win in the Forego and first graded win in the Nerud (G2). The 4-year-old colt is 5-for-10 in his career.

4. Gun Pilot. Finished fourth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, a head behind Mullikin. He was runner-up in the Forego and third in the True North (G2). In the spring, he won his first stakes race in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Nakatomi. Disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint as he never really got going, finishing sixth. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga earlier this season. Before that he ran third in both of his starts.

Next five: Federal Judge, Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Bentornato, Post Time

2-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Dominated the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for a gate-to-wire win. That followed his American Pharoah (G1) victory. With a 3-for-4 record, he's the clear Eclipse winner in this division.

2. Journalism. This son of Curlin looked very good defeating a solid field last out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He's now 2-for-3 in his career.

3. Gaming. Ran a distant third to Journalism in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). That effort came after a strong runner-up to his stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner finished 2-for-4 this season.

4. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he stays near the top here. Those first three starts were impressive, with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on.

5. East Avenue. He missed the break in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and finished ninth, unable to recover. Prior to that, he won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in gate-to-wire fashion for his second straight win.

Next five: Rated by Merit, Getaway Car, Jonathan's Way, Ferocious, First Resort

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she’s a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career.

2. Good Cheer. Won the Golden Rod (G2) last out impressively to run her record to 4-for-4.

3. Scottish Lassie. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was over nine lengths clear of the others. Before that she blew away the Frizette (G1) field by nine lengths.

4. Quickick. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, this daughter of McKinzie finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades (G1) one start earlier.

5. Non Compliant. Unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup.

Next five: Muhimma, Vodka With a Twist, Quietside, Tenma, La Cara