Breeders' Cup 2016 - My Thoughts

We are a little over two weeks removed from a Breeders’ Cup weekend that will likely go down as the finest of the nine editions held at Santa Anita. Instead of writing this a day or two after the races, I chose to wait, and let the results sink in for a while. For me, this was the best way to go about this as I carried some strong opinions about certain horses and races. I needed the time to decompress and detach my pre-race thoughts on several runners in order to be fair and unbiased when analyzing the final results. More importantly, I wanted lend some historical perspective on the two remarkable races that capped each day.

All Breeders’ Cups are memorable for one reason or another, and this year’s two-day event will always be identified with what took place in the Distaff and the Classic. Beholder, Songbird, Arrogate, and California Chrome, really saved this Breeders' Cup from being just average. Those two races stood head and shoulders above the others in terms of sheer drama and historical implications. The Juvenile, with Classic Empire and Not This Time, may have been the best running ever, for several reasons which we will get into, but first, some housekeeping.

I know I am not alone in thinking that the Breeders’ Cup should be a one day event. This is supposed to be the Super Bowl of horse racing, and no other sport schedules their championship on a Friday afternoon where many fans won’t be available to watch it. The best Breeders’ Cups took place when it was a one-day event, and with a little tweaking, we can get back to that. Thirteen Breeders’ Cup races is too many, and some of these races really hurt the other, more relevant races.

I have been saying this for years, but the Dirt Mile really needs to go. It affects the Sprint the most, and also takes horses away from the Classic. It’s just too much. The Filly & Mare Sprint is another that needs to be dropped for obvious reasons. Believe it or not, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint was always one of the best and most memorable races on the entire Breeders’ Cup card. Part of the allure of that event in the past was watching great female sprinters like Safely Kept, Meafara, Xtra Heat, and Very Subtle among others, take on the males. Now both sprint races are an afterthought. So many memorable Sprint winners who were better suited to the mile distance would have went in a Dirt Mile had there been one and yet, they still won the Sprint. Gulch, Precisionist, Dancing Spree, Cherokee Run immediately come to mind.

Another race that could easily be eliminated is the Turf Sprint. Now we are down to ten races, a nice one-day championship card. Take those three eliminated races and make them stakes the day before. If it were up to me, I would also relegate the Juvenile turf races to stakes the day before. That gets us back to the eight races the Breeders’ Cup went to in 1999 when the Filly & Mare Turf was added. Some would even say the Filly & Mare Turf should be eliminated, that’s a story for another day.

Before I get to the Classic and Distaff, I wanted to shine the spotlight on some horses that didn’t win but impressed me in one way or another. Gun Runner was one of the few three-year-olds left standing that started in the spring Kentucky Derby preps. This son of Candy Ride saved one of his best races for the Breeders’ Cup. Briefly looking like a winner at the top of the stretch in the Dirt Mile, Gun Runner ran a big race, bigger than I thought he could. Now his connections hope to see him secure his first Gr1 win in the upcoming Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs.

Even in defeat Tepin impressed. She showed everyone that she hasn’t lost a step since her trip overseas, and that she is indeed one of the best U.S. based female grass milers we have ever had. Five wide turning for home (the chart says four, I say five) in the Breeders' Cup Mile, Tepin blew by seven horses in the stretch only to be an unlucky second to Tourist, who rallied along the rail. Tremendous effort from this mare who ran 26 feet farther than the winner. She belongs in the same company now as Mieqsue and Goldikova. And how about Midnight Storm? Sent off as the sixth betting choice and taking the lead turning for home, he again showed how game he is by holding on for third. Great stuff from the home horses as Om also ran well in defeat when losing to another local favorite, Obviously.

The gold standard for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile history in terms of the “wow” factor will always be the 1991 running that featured Arazi. But this year’s running was unique in that both the winner and the runner-up were highly regarded not only for this year, but for next year’s Triple Crown races. Classic Empire and Not This Time put on a show and there is a very real possibility that this was just a prelude to more meaningful battles between these two in the coming months. Seven and a half lengths in their wake was a Gr1 winner in Practical Joke. The Juvenile was also over two and a half seconds faster than the Juvenile Fillies. There is a lot to be excited about for 2017.

I’ll admit it, I had reservations about Songbird stepping up her game and running the race needed to beat her competitors in the Distaff. I will also admit that I had doubts Beholder had what it took to win it this year, that maybe she had lost a half of step. I was wrong on both accounts. Songbird gained as much in a defeat as you can gain, and her reputation was only enhanced with this loss. She was dead game and refused to be passed, only a head bob decided this race. I wish it had been a dead heat, they both deserved the win. Beholder saved one of her best races for her last, she was that good. It’s no exaggeration in stating the obvious that when taking into consideration who the participants were, these two ran what will likely go down as the best and most exciting dirt race run by females in history.

As a side note, the 2016 Distaff was eerily similar to the 1990 Distaff. I thought about Go For Wand and Bayakoa as Beholder took on Songbird at the top of the stretch. This year it was Larry Collmus and “a confrontation of champions”, in 1990 it was Tom Durkin “and a clash of champions”.  In both races, we had the soon to be crowned three-year-old filly champ against the older female champ. In both cases, each of these females were among the best in history. We were very lucky to witness such a historically great race.

Admit it, when California Chrome took the field to the far turn in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the race looked to be over. He was running well within himself, and the second choice in the race, Arrogate, was three and a half lengths back with Mike Smith shaking the reins and urging him to go. But then something happened, Arrogate passed Melatonin to take over second, and all of a sudden we had a race. Chrome and Arrogate proceeded to distance themselves from the rest of the field. What once looked like another easy win for California Chrome was now an all-out battle with the younger Arrogate. Defying many historical trends, Arrogate passed California Chrome in the final strides to win the Classic in just his sixth lifetime start and second stakes start. It was a stunning conclusion to the Breeders’ Cup.

I did not believe Arrogate had any shot to win this race, I even wrote a piece on why I thought he could not win. I was wrong. To all the Arrogate supporters out there who backed him before the race and told me so, you were right. In the Breeders’ Cup era, Arrogate ran one of the more remarkable races a three-year-old with his resume (with only five starts under his belt) has ever run. That is no exaggeration. I have heard comparisons to what Tiznow did, but they can’t be compared. What Arrogate did was much more difficult. Tiznow had eight starts before his first Classic win, and several stakes including two against older. Plus, Tiznow didn’t have to beat a horse in California Chrome who was at the peak of his powers and historically dominant for the entire season.

These two were nearly eleven lengths clear of the Keen Ice who finished third. Chrome ran his race, this was no fluke folks. If there was one thing I could question about the race, it was j

ockey Victor Espinoza looking over his shoulders three times as he made the turn for home. This is the Breeders’ Cup and nothing should be left in the tank, and I, like many others, question why this took place at this key point in the race. As has been written by several writers, I would have liked to have seen Victor let Chrome open up a bit. Would it have mattered? I don't know.

Arrogate is indeed a very special horse as is California Chrome. Now the racing world waits to see if we will get to see these two tangle one last time in the $12,000,000 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park on January 28th.