Kentucky Derby 2017: Chasing the Superfecta
Well, it's Derby week, so the dream begins.
The field is just about set, but with time enough for one more defection and/or injury. No matter, as I've begun charting my course to Kentucky Derby Superfecta Group Bet #7. What's this you wonder? Well, it's a chance for a degenerate like myself to gather friends and associates to fork over $50 a piece and ride my betting instincts and insights toward hopefully, a five- or six-figure score.
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Pretty simple, I take in the cash, handicap the race, make the bet and then let all my friends know who's on our big bet. In years prior, I've had the stable of 7 colleagues toss me the dough and hope for the best as I laid down a $400 superfecta bet.
I've hit it once for small potatoes, $634 in 2015, and come close a few other times with 2013 being our best, non-win finish. I had all four top finishers on the ticket just not in the right order and that year the superfecta paid $28,542 - not a bad chunk of change. I happened to be at Churchill that wet and wild Saturday and at the eighth-pole I could see a dizzying array of horses with numbers I had correctly handicapped. I started to get excited, dreaming of the suitcase full of cash I'd leave with until I saw Golden Soul finish second. I had him for fourth. Oh well.
This year the stakes and the betting bankroll has swollen dramatically after I asked if any Facebook friends wanted in on the action. It only took about 30 minutes before I had 15 friends committing to the $50 buy in fee. (With all this new money from Facebook, I will have a cool $1,000 to wager, if everyone gets me their cash by Thursday. No pay, no play.)
While this betting venture is fun; it's still serious fun. As most of my bankroll backers are, at best, casual horse racing fans of the Triple Crown-watching variety, I feel a great responsibility for betting their money wisely while providing dreams of a big payday. Several are family members I will be hanging out with on Saturday, so the pressure to do well only increases this year.
In addition to taking, (I mean collecting the betting funds), I provide my backers with some horse racing insight, a clear explanation of the bets made and how the monies will be spilt if we win. In honor of the big turn out, I've even started our own private group on Facebook - Bada Bing's Derby Bet. Don't go looking for it because it's closed to the public. Membership does have its privileges, you know.
Onto the bet. Yeah, I know the race is still five days away, but you've got to start your betting strategy early. I always start by eliminating horses who I believe have no shot of finishing in the top four on Saturday. I will follow this with a series of horses who I must use based on their talent preceding the Derby, as well as their final work outs coming in, and the all important post position draw. Look for this on Thursday.
In no particular order, my tosses:
Thunder Snow - let's keep this simple the UAE Derby winner has never come in first, second, third, or fourth since horses from Dubai started making the trip. The best Kentucky Derby finish for the group was fifth. Case closed.
Practical Joke - nice horse, but when your Eclipse Award winning trainer is unsure if he should put blinkers on or not just a few days before the big race, you know the horse is in trouble. Only Cinderella could get away with such a late wardrobe change.
Girvin - speaking of equipment changes, this Louisiana Derby winner got new shoes last week to help him contend with a quarter crack in his hoof. Neither development is good, as I want my equine athletes in top shape not stepping lightly on the toughest day of their lives.
Patch - allow me to drop the hammer on the feel-good story of the 143rd Derby. Sure he's run great with one eye, but coming into a 10-furlong race off of just three lifetime races is damn near suicidal and I mean that. Seriously, hoping for a safe trip.
Gormley - OK, here comes an Achilles heel of mine: dismissing Santa Anita Derby winners. I did so with I'll Have Another as well as Giacomo. In a year of just average speed figures, this son of Malibu Moon was simply the fastest, slowest horse in that Santa Anita field. He might just need a small improvement to earn the Blanket of Roses and give me a bucket of tears.
Fast and Accurate - if only I had $200,000 to toss around, I wouldn't use it to nominate the Spiral Stakes winner into the Derby late. Even with the allure of winter Olympic gold medalist skier Bode Miller buying a piece of his Derby dream, I am not swayed.
Untrapped - with a pure sprinter as his sire, he's far more viable a little more than half of the Kentucky Derby distance of six furlongs. Await his soon-to-be summer sprinting days.
So there's seven down and now two on the fence.
Always Dreaming - this Todd Pletcher trainee is plenty talented winning the Florida Derby in his first stakes start. But...the field he beat that day was less than spectacular and he's been plenty keyed up each day he goes to the Churchill track to train. I do not want any part of horse who may toss his head, crash into the horse next him and be left 8 lengths behind to start the race. But...he does have a ton of talent.
J Boys Echo - for some unknown reason, I'm starting to warm to him for a second, third or fourth finish. Let's see what the next few days bring and I'll let you know.
On Thursday I'll reveal who my top three choices for the superfecta bet will be and the handful horses I'll use underneath to fill out what will likely be $500 to $600 in superfecta bets.