Taking a stance against Animal Kingdom
By Tony Bada Bing
With my recent difficulty in providing you any semblance of winner for Derby Wars tournaments, I thought I’d change my handicapping venue and hopefully change my luck. And what better place than the warmth and proximity of flying coach at 35,000 feet to clean the handicapping slate? Actually flying in the smallish S80 jet has absolutely none of the comforts of home, but as I find myself somewhere over Texas heading to Arizona, I figured why not. Besides my son is busy playing his DS, my daughter is asleep and my wife is playing around with the iPad. So here I go at around 500 miles per hour, with my seatbelt safely secured, my tray and seats in the upright positions just looking for a winner.
I know the air is thin up here and the pressure is high (not to mention the bumpy ride), but if you’re going to take a stance against a favorite, why not last year’s Derby champ? Animal Kingdom makes his return today in Gulfstream Park’s Race 5, a non-winners of three allowance affair on the turf at a 1 1/16miles.
Here are the reasons to bet against:
The change in plan from Tampa stakes race to Gulfstream allowance doesn’t instill confidence – not quite good enough yet?
The distance is far too short for a horse breed to run all day
A possible repeat of last year’s Preakness, in which one on a loose lead, lulls the field to sleep
And by the way I really, really like Royal Hill to take the short field gate-to-wire while clicking off quarter mile fractions around the 25-second mark. Not my favorite jock on top with Paco Lopez, but he’s capable and the fact that he is less than a commonly known jockey might even help the price go up as the horses approach the post.
A make or break affair for tournament players will be Race 9 at Gulfstream simply because any of six, as I see it, can win here. Peg the winner and do so at a price and it just might be enough separation at the end of the tournament to get you the W.
While speed has held up nicely on the Gulfstream sod, and I like horses who can nurse an early lead going 8 ½ furlongs, there’s just too many who either want the lead or will be pressing those leading the way here. King Arthur, a just out maiden winner at five, Seton Hall, a fairly competitive allowance horse on the green, Round Trip Loner, a six-time winner in lesser company and Grip Hands, who has just started to run like he might be worth that half million purchase price, all might want a piece of that lead.
If any kind of speed evolves like I think it should, it will open the door for those just off the pace like Dream Man, the second half of the entry Kanagaro, who won just off the pace in his maiden-breaker and Corporate Jungle, who’s done the same. In the same spirit of baseball’s rule giving any tie to the runner with a force out, for me the tie goes to the biggest price – Dream Man at 15-1.
There are many “rules” you can get yourself to follow, even if they are only marginally successful – funny how we remember or success more readily than our failures. Santa Anita’s Race 5, a maiden special weight affair gives me the opportunity to follow two of my own rules: when a trainer sends two separate betting interests in one race – take the horse with the higher odds. My first-time maiden rule is to find a horse that has trained faster than at least half the trainees at that distance, day and track. If I can find three such workouts, I’ll usually play all such qualifiers on top and in some exotics.
The horse that fits the bill for both “rules” is Spring Warrior. Spring Warrior is trainer Bob Baffert’s less heralded horse in the field and has a morning line more than double Paynter, Baffert’s other trainee in the race. In addition Spring Warrior has worked better than a majority of other trainees, a majority of the time. Granted Baffert works most of his fast, so why is Paynter so much lower on the early tote board? Word of mouth, perhaps, which can be wrong more than it is right.
Well the landing gear is dropping, and it is now time to turn off all electronic devices including my laptop. Good luck with all your plays today!
Weekly recap:
In the past we have highlighted those players that have hit won tournaments through pegging just a few big priced runners. Last Saturday’s Big Game won did just the opposite – consistently getting winners regardless of price.
John Conte, aka Sandia Prince, nailed 10 out of the 11 contest races, which consistently and constantly added to his bankroll. John’s finished with a final tally of $109.70 and a $20 cushion. Nice work John!
Recap complied by Josh Chicorelli