President's Day fun on Derby Wars
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By Tony Bada Bing
Hey what better way to celebrate Presidents’ Day than to spend just a few Lincolns to earn maybe a few Benjamins, or if you’re so inclined, a chance to earn many, many Benjamins by qualifying for the big $25,000 tournament on Derby Wars. And yes, you can do all this and more – free, if the points tournament is still open by the time you read this.
Before we get to some prognostication, two disclaimers. Since I gave you a 31-1 shot a few weeks ago, I’ve been mostly whiffing here at the Derby War blog. The good news, I just might be back to good form since I finished sixth in yesterdays qualifying tournament just a few bucks back from first. Enough said, time for some winners.
I’m going to do myself a favor and handicap six races that will cover two tournaments, the Shootout Token and $2,000 President’s Day Game. Handicapping more races simply gives me more opportunity to at least find one winner.
Aqueduct Race 1, Allowance/Optional Claimer, 1 mile and 70 yards
It’s not often that the Big A starts off a winter program with such a decent race. It’s more like $7,500 claimer at six furlongs, but here we are and I’ll give you the one horse to play – Eminent Tale.
Look trainer, Richard Dutrow is despised for a lot of reasons such as multiple drug violations, a brash braggart and someone who seemingly wins at any cost. He also is quite a horsemen – with or without drugs. He excels at several moves: first claim, off long layoffs and spotting horses where they can win whether he moves them up into stakes races or drops them down into claims. Basically Dutrow likes to win and Eminent Tale comes off almost a year on the bench after winning a couple of minor restricted stakes. No matter, Eminent Tale is two-for-three on the inner dirt and at the distance. Person of Interest is the 7-5 morning line favorite by beating, beaten claimers last May, really? Take a stand against.
Aqueduct Race 3, Allowance/Optional Claimer, 6 furlongs
Is there a time in a five-horse field to take a horse at double-digit odds with a stakes placing entry and another trained by the red, hot Todd Pletcher in the field? Probably not, but allow me to give a few reasons to take stands against both Fantasy of Flight, your even money favorite and Holiday Flare, the 8-5 morning line second choice.
Holiday Flare easily bested a couple Florida-bred fields while going coast-to-coast way back in 2011. Unable to get the lead in her return race at Gulfstream last month, Pletcher now ships her north, why? I’m not sure, so she’s out for me.
Fantasy of Flight has yet to run up to her $750,000 price tag. She failed in her last attempt at the Spa when she was unable to beat another field of five, even though she was bet down to 2-5.
We know Holiday Flare wants the lead and Fantasy of Flight may just be headstrong coming off the long layoff, so it’s a good bet she challenges for the lead. With Lago Mar Lady likely to join in the upfront chase while getting back to dirt, the way may be paved for the only true closer in the bunch – Myprincessallyson. You’ll know just after the first quarter spilt if this 7-year-old mare can catch her younger counterparts. Any dual with a sub :23 opening spilt and she’ll have chance at a very right price.
Gulfstream Park Race 2, Claimer $10K, 6 furlongs
Everyone knows early speed holds up quite well on the Gulfstream strip, so you really need to narrow this one down to just who has the best early speed. While Penitant Prayers has displayed an early lick, he has come against company far inferior to these, so he is out.
For me it comes down to Mipando, the morning ling favorite at 2-1 and Special Song at 8-1. Both entries commonly hit the quarter pole in front or close to it. Both have the ability to stay close with Mipando the more likely of the two to hang on. But do you want to find out a short price? Consider Special Song will be making his second start off a layoff and took on a much tougher crowd in his comeback race. By the way Special Song’s trainer hits at a 32% clip, second time after short layoff.
Gulfstream Race 9, Allowance/Optional Claimer, 1 3/8 miles on turf
This paceless affair has several on the verge of something better – Dracup, who moved way up in her last; Sex Appeal, coming off a narrow defeat at this track and distance in her last; Thislilsoulofmine whose only disappointing turf start was in graded stakes company and Starfomer, a three-time losing favorite since coming across from France.
On first glance, I was all for Dracup, who I thought could make the distance with Rock Hard Ten as his sire, but let’s just say the field kind of dwarfs her. Sex Appeal is still a fine choice because I think she made the lead a little too early last time and could take it all with a little more patience in the saddle. Thislilsoulofmine comes out the same race as Sex Appeal and basically made the same mistake.
I just don’t know, Strarformer, is a horse I would usually bet against, but something tells me she’s for real. Bill Mott trains, a resurgent Edgar Prado rides and with Dynaformer’s stamina and grass genes, she really should win. The price is shorter than I like in these kind of contests, but screw it, she’s my top choice.
Santa Anita Race 4, Allowance/Optional Claimer, 1½ miles on turf
You really have to ask yourself, what is a stakes winner and multiple stakes placing gelding doing showing up in an optional claimer race for the tag. Come on, geldings can race a long time if they stay healthy, right? Does the owner and trainer really need the $40K? Take 9-5 at your own peril, I guess…
Some handicappers take a “closers only” mentality at this distance. Antidote provides an antidote for these closer only thinkers. He quite easily could clip off slow quarter fractional splits and then have enough left to hold off those closing late. Not that I love him, but I like him enough to take a shot.
Santa Anita Race 6, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ furlongs down-the-hill turf
On of the funkiest races run in the US – roll down a hill that edges right, comes back left, and crosses the dirt track at the top of the stretch, which makes already skittish Thoroughbreds usually bear out. How do you pick a winner, I really don’t know. The two ways I look at it, is to find a horse that’s already found some success “going down the hill” or one that has had some success at least sprinting on the ordinary flat turf.
The only two that meet the bill are Relentless Heat – a third and a sixth going down the hill and Madeoftherightstuf – a second place finish as the chalk, two back and a second sprinting on the sod to start his career. Neither will get you rich, but it’s better to cash a few small ones along the way than draw too many goose eye.
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