Just One Shot to Make it Big

 

Pardon my absence last week – stomach flu, ugly. But here I am back at it again. Hopefully, I won’t be puking again by day’s end on Saturday.  

 

Sunday, I’ll be cheering for my hometown football team, the New England Patriots. While I’m not a fortuneteller and only sometimes a good handicapper, I do feel a less than 3-point win for the Pats and just one, big-money payoff tipping the scales in Saturday’s Big Game. What follows is the nexus of the one race on Saturday that may lead to a big win, just like the one experienced by Robert Robitaille last week on Derby Wars. (see recap) 

 

Santa Anita Race 1, Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs 

 

Here are the races I would usually shy away from, but now I have found a fondness for – maidens of all kinds. After all, where else can you tap a long shot amongst a series of others in a Pick 3 or 4 or maybe lay atop a deep trifecta or superfecta ticket? If one or only a few have had a previous start, all the better because really, can’t you count just about all entries in and…out?  

 

The morning line reflects this thinking, as Et Tu Walker, Mile High Magic, Gophari and Eaton Hall are the top choices at respective odds of 6-1, 5-2, 9-2 and 7-2. Both trainer John Sadler and Bob Baffert have gaudy percentages around 25% with first-time starters and Et Tu Walker and Mile High Magic will try to increase their trainers numbers.  

 

Baffert, who is not exactly known for his move to blinkers, but is known for tossing the shades on his most prominent first-time starters doesn’t make such a move today with Mile High Magic. Interesting.  

 

The returning starters in this race Eaton Hall and Gophari really don’t impress. Do they have the right to improve? Sure, but I don’t want to find out at just 9-2 or 7-2.  

 

So the alternatives…Stratify’s trainer Eoin Harty has improved dramatically in bringing his first-time runners into the winner’s circle. While Stratify is extremely well bred (A. P. Indy on top and a Storm Cat mare on bottom), he gets his first start along the rail, which is usually too difficult for most maidens to overcome first time out.  

 

Currahee has worked well throughout his brief career, even firing a bullet first time on the track. He’s not as well bred as the competitor to his inside, but A P Warrior is no slouch coming off his first season of two-year-olds to race – 8% win rate. You really can’t fault anything he’s done so far in training and his human connections are better than good. 

 

But lately, and I guess my determining factor in finding a high-priced winner here, sire, Hard Spun is sending out stakes runners and winners at every turn. He’s had a decent 9% win rate on his two-year-old firsters and has had 2-out-of-5 debut winners in this short year. Just as importantly, Hard Spun’s starter, Disturbingbehavior, gets the underrated jock and great gate-rider Martin Pedroza. At 15-1 better, Disturbingbehavior just might be your best shot at getting to the top of the Saturday’s leaderboard. 

 

Now for a brief recap of last week’s action…. 

 

While the big handicapping news of last weekend was Michael Beychok big $1,000,000 win on the final race of the National Handicap Challenge, Derby Wars own Carl Thobe, aka Baroncuda took home our two-day NHC Play Along. Carl’s two-day bankroll of $121.10 was good for the $300 top prize – not quite what Mr. Beychok took home, but a win, is a win, is a win. 

 

Saturday’s big winner, Eric Moomey, aka Moomeyer, showed you don’t need many winners in a tournament, just the right ones. Mr. Moomey connected on just three out of ten races, but two were back-to-back long shots Willa B Awesome ($31.80) and Hooh Why ($48.40). It goes to show that it may be worth it to take some shots from time-to-time; as Moommeyer showed, they may be all you need to win.  

 

In the Sunday game, Robert Robitaille, aka Robitaile, was one of five players to hit the last race of the contest with Zombyslayermrdarcy who returned $42.40 for the win-place return. The difference was that Robitaile had a cushion of a few more dollars to win the contest by almost $5 – for that he took home the top prize of $1,500.