5 Reasons Why I'll Have Another wins the Belmont

By Tony Bada Bing

Lovers, haters, cynics or true-believers.

As we inch closer to the 2012 Belmont Stakes, fans, followers and betters fall into one of the four camps listed above. You’re either going all in for or against I’ll Have Another. Emotion rules in believing or betting against the twelfth Thoroughbred to enter the Belmont starting gate with the chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Maybe you’re high on horses coming from the West Coast. Maybe you hate I’ll Have Another’s trainer Doug O’Neill for his multiple drug violations. Maybe you cashed four consecutive times with I’ll Have Another starting at 43-1 in the Robert Lewis Stakes. Maybe you think I’ll Have Another has worked too hard, too long and will come up empty on June 9.

I don’t fall into any of the above descriptions. I have been a skeptic of I’ll Have Another, and as such I have doubted his greatness. In the Lewis Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, I thought he benefited from dream trips following fast fractions from horses that couldn’t hold up. In the Kentucky Derby I thought he found himself a dream trip as Gemologist veered hard to the left coming out of the 15-post leaving a nice pocket for jockey, Mario Gutierrez, coming out of the 19-hole - another dream trip following the very fast fractions of Bodemeister.

In the Preakness I thought I’ll Have Another would finally fall back to earth having to race outside his comfort zone while chasing closer than usual to Bodemeister’s lone speed. I was correct in envisioning I’ll Have Another’s wide trip, but was wrong about his ability to win with such adversity. Finally after I’ll Have Another jogged out after winning the second jewel of the Triple Crown, I no longer doubted, but began to believe that I’ll Have Another was benefiting from something more than racing luck.

Today I am here to tell you that I’ll Have Another will definitely win the Belmont Stakes, becoming just the 12^th Triple Crown winner. Here are the five reasons why:

5. The second best horse and greatest competition is on the bench.

Bodemeister, coming off just four lifetime starts, but with tons of talent, would be sitting pretty on the eve of history if there were no I’ll Have Another. The Bob Baffert-trainee reeled off extremely fast fractions in the Derby and fell within the shadow of the Churchill wire of winning. In Maryland, he put up fast/reasonable fractions and befell the same fate. As it stands right now, he is the second-best three-year-old in training and he’s not running next week.

4. The Belmont competition is weak.

This has been the case before with wins by Da’Tara and Savara, long shots who finished in front of would-be champs, Big Brown and War Emblem. You could also argue that those Triple Crown hopefuls weren’t as strong, versatile or as well bred I’ll Have Another. In the 144^th Belmont Stakes the chief rivals are Union Rags, a horse that always finds trouble; Dullahan, a zero-time winner on dirt; Paynter, a horse that qualifies for a non-winners of two allowance and Street Life, a listed stakes winner. Really that’s it. With competition like this I’m thinking all that Mario Gutierrez has to do is stay on I’ll Have Another’s back.

3. Breeding

On top and bottom, I’ll Have Another, has plenty of stamina to make the 12-furlong trip. His daddy, Flower Alley, won the 10-furlong Travers Stakes and finished second in the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont Park. Flower Alley was sired by Distorted Humor whose leading earners include Kentucky Derby winner, Funny Cide and two-time Whitney winner, Commentator. I’ll Have Another’s dam sire, Arch, won the 10-furlong Super Derby at three and is the sire of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Blame. The distance is not a problem.

2. The jockey

Bill Russell, the 11-time NBA champion, was asked during his first NBA championship series, if he was experienced enough to win. His response was, “Experience means shit, you can either do the job or you can’t.” Mario Gutierrez has and will continue to do the job atop I’ll Have Another. His Preakness ride was the picture of patience. He also put his horse into a more forward position than usual while going wide all the way around the track. Then he timed the finish perfectly getting up in plenty of time with the finish line in sight. Patience + Confidence +  Well-Timed Ride = Win. He’ll do the same in the Belmont Stakes.

1. The trainer

Listen, I didn’t bet on I’ll Have Another in the Derby because of the far post, and I didn’t think Doug O’Neill could win much outside of his friendly Left Coast confines. I was also suspicious of his dozen or so drug-related violations. The problem with my “Doug O’Neill problem” is that it had nothing to do with I’ll Have Another’s success. Violations or not, O’Neill is a good horseman. He consistently wins a tick or two under 20 percent. He campaigned a former $50,000 claimer turned multimillionaire turned lead pony, Lava Man.

O’Neill has taken an unconventional and winning route to the edge of Triple Crown success. In an era of three, four and five-furlong maintenance works, O’Neill has worked his horse six furlongs to a mile in preparation and throughout his Triple Crown try. He turned his horse out after a disappointing stakes try at Saratoga last summer. He listened to his owner and gave the horse another stakes try in the Lewis off a six-month layoff. He stuck with an unknown jockey when a superstar like Garret Gomez was waiting in the wings for Derby mount.   

Let’s review - loyalty, listening and finding workouts to match his horse not the other way around. Aren’t these all admiral attributes in a horse trainer? I think so.

I’m giving you a Namath, an Ali. I’m guaranteeing a Belmont win, a week in advance. I’ve given you the reasons why. I’ll be there recording history for Horse Racing Nation. I also lay down my wagers and tweet the experience at @tonycbadabing. Around 7 pm, I plan on tweeting, “I told you so.”