Kentucky Derby Superfecta Near Miss

Post Kentucky Derby, I always feel hungover from my thoughts, my plans, my handicapping, my anticipation of it all that culminates with the most magnificent two-plus minutes in sports. I hardly ever drink whilst handicapping and betting. In fact, I can count on one hand how many times I've had a drink in my 33 years of playing the ponies. (Given my results, maybe I should start.)

Yesterday's Kentucky Derby superfecta play mirrored my pre-race blog post…another near miss. Here's my superfecta ticket, along with a backup trifecta. Neither hit, but my main target was using $322 of a $425 bankroll on the super. 

As a recap, I had all the horses that finished first through eighth, except the second place horse, on the super ticket. Here they are and how I played them:

California Chrome - winner, had him on top

Commanding Curve - ugh, my one miss

Danza - finished third, had him there

Wicked Strong - finished fourth, had him for first or second

Samraat - finished fifth, had him for third and fourth

Dance with Fate - finished sixth, had him first or fourth

Ride on Curlin - finished seventh, had him for third or fourth

Medal Count - finished eighth, had him for first through fourth

Intense Holiday - finished twelfth, had him for first and second

It is almost impossible to do what I did. But anyone who's spent more than a week trying to make winning wagers knows of what I speak.

Here's the kicker, I saw Commanding Curve, as two-year-old, train back in July at Saratoga before he even raced and talked with his owner, West Point Thoroughbred's Terry Finley and trainer, Dallas Stewart. I talked with Finley again right before Commanding Curve's sixth place finish in the Risen Star Stakes... so you think I would have included him on my ticket. I didn't like the way he trained last week, so I tossed him. The only consolation was the superfecta only paid $7,000 and my friends and I in it for way more than that. (Remember I have once-a-year Derby bettors tossing me $50 or $25 apiece and trusting me to create the bet.)

What I am most proud of - if one can say such a thing after a losing bet - is the fact that I listened to friends on twitter and my main man and HRN editor, Brian Zipse to include Danza and Wicked Strong onto my tickets. I just wasn't convinced of Danza's sudden appearance onto the Derby scene after his Arkansas Derby win, and Wicked Strong's post just bothered me. 

My biggest disappointment was including Intense Holiday, as his lack of stamina in breeding just tugged at me. I choose to ignore my misgivings based upon continued good training while dismissing Harlan Holiday's ability to get a progeny to run 10 furlongs faster than most. 

On the bright side the horse racing game will likely have a Triple Crown contender in California Chrome five weeks from now. As I've stated I am not betting for awhile; it will be the first Preakness I will fail to wager on in the last 25 years. 

I will be at the Belmont Stakes, though, awaiting California Chrome and his human connections to capture what has become elusive, the Holy Grail of Thoroughbred racing - the Triple Crown. I'd be honored to bask in that warmth for awhile which will make my non-betting days seem just a tad brighter.

Thanks for hanging with me. I'll continue to blog - more about horses and people and less about wagering…for now.