Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: Projected field, odds and analysis

In you’re planning to play the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar - for my money one of the most exciting and surprising races each year - you’ll have to make two important decisions first. Is Lady Aurelia simply the best, and/or will Disco Partner’s incredible six furlong speed translate to five furlongs? No matter how you look at the race, all potential winners have to go through those two talented turf sprint specialists.

Here’s a quick look at the likely field with Bada Bing odds and brief analysis. 

Bucchero (TBB Odds 20-1 - Kanthros - Tim Glyshaw - Fernando De La Cruz) His trainer has had an incredible two weeks capturing his first Grade II win with this runner’s 25-1 win at Keeneland followed by the even more unlikely Grade I Pattison Canadian International winner, Bullard’s Alley, at 42-1 last weekend. Might this trainer, more at home at Indiana Grand, come ready to add one or more Breeders' Cup wins to his resume? Possible, but not probable. Nice story though.

Disco Partner (TBB Odds 5-2 - Lulu’s Number - Christophe Clement - Irad Ortiz Jr.) This four-time winner in 2017, shattered Belmont Park’s six furlong turf record in capturing the Grade III Jaipur Stakes in June. Coming from off the pace, the 5-year-old stopped the race clock at 1:05.67 closing from way off a blistering pace of 21.43 and 43.04. The gray is likely to get an equally fast pace to run into this time. The only question is: Will he have enough ground in front of him to get home first? Fastest doesn’t always equal best.

Hogy (TBB Odds 12-1 - Offlee Wild - Michael Maker - Florent Geroux) This sprinter has been the mark of consistency during his six racing seasons, finishing in the money 35 times from 46 lifetime races. He’s got an outside shot at the winner’s circle given his off-the-pace running style. If the top two falter in their runs, he’ll be in a good position for a score. Best of the long shots to hit the board.

Holding Gold (TBB Odds 25-1 - Lonhro - Mark Casse - Julien Leparoux) Just one win from five 2017 starts does not inspire confidence. He's beaten some in here, but has not faced the likes of the top three and likely to finish behind them. Overmatched.

Lady Aurelia (TBB Odds 4-5 - Scat Daddy - Wesley Ward - Frankie Dettori) This lightly raced 3-year-old has been both a Group 1 and 2 winner running at the prestigious Royal Ascot meet going five furlongs. Ward, whose affinity for Ascot rivals Todd Pletcher’s love of Saratoga or Michael Maker’s Kentucky Downs success, had his ultra quick filly winning at Keeneland to start her 2017 season taking the Giant’s Causeway Stakes before shipping her overseas. Her lone defeat to Marsha, a head bobbing loss at the finish line in the Nunthorpe Stakes, showed the type of outlandish effort it will take to beat her at Del Mar. And, please: Let’s not think making a turn will impede her success in getting the 5 furlongs fastest of all. Has earned favoritism.

Marsha (TBB Odds 3-1 - Acclamation - Sir Mark Prescott - Luke Morris) Generation Xers may recall the Brady Bunch reruns in which middle child Jane bemoans the preferential treatment her older sister received during her, “Marcia! Marcia! Marcia!” rant. Frankie Dettori also had his bubble burst following the narrow Nunthrope loss -- a race in which he thought he won and celebrated prematurely in crossing the finish line with an extended index finger up. This 4-year-old followed up her Breeder’s Cup 'Win and You’re In' race with a second-place finish in a five furlong affair on the Arc undercard. Beaten soundly by almost six lengths in her last leaves a question mark on the talented filly’s chances for a bounce-back effort. Can she rebound?

Mongolian Saturday (TBB Odds 15-1 - Any Given Saturday - Enebish Ganbat - Javier Castellano) The unlikely 2015 Turf Sprint winner seems to be finally rounding back into the form that had him score at Keeneland at 16-1. He’ll likely be about the same price or greater given the fact that he’s won only once in the last two years. Outside shot at minor prize is where I put his chances. Getting back to winning form, but looks like he’s lost a step.

Pure Sensation (TBB Odds 10-1 - Zensational - Christophe Clemente - Kendrick Carmouche) This 6-year-old gelding was the show horse in last year’s Turf Sprint, but has had an uneven 2017 campaign winning two Parx Grade III stakes in the Parx Dash and Turf Monster. Is he as good as the top three? No. Could he get a piece of the pie? Sure, given his last win by more than five lengths. Recent form gets him minor awards at best.