Pugh: Grading out last week's 2020 Kentucky Derby preps

There were two 2020 Kentucky Derby points qualifiers run over the weekend, plus an allowance race of massive interest as we near the first Saturday in May -- or whenever Churchill Downs figures out it can contest the Run for the Roses. Let's start at the top grading out the preps.
 
Rebel Stakes (G2)

Winner: Nadal

On the Board: Excession, Basin

Distance/Time: 8.5 furlongs, 1:44.97

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 96

Grade: A+

Analysis: At no point over the 1 1/16 miles did Nadal evade some sort of pressure. He was first joined by No Parole when sprinting to the first turn. After that rival settled, American Theorem was up to challenge.

Nadal put them both away, but then came Three Technique ranging to his outside. That one faded, and in deep stretch Excession came running.

Despite a blistering pace in his two-turn debut, shipping for the first time, a sloppy track and waves of challengers, Nadal dug in to win.

The final time of 1:44.97 isn't flashy, but it results from a slowdown during the second half of the race, after American Theorem backed up. Nadal also didn’t just “last” the length of the stretch; it appears he re-broke. His final 1/16 of a mile was completed 6.53, which is good on normal day. This was much more than a normal Derby prep performance.

There are those with concerns about Nadal’s ability to rate. Their argument is that there is no way that he will last 10 furlongs running that fast early. One big difference come Derby day is field size. There's much more for a deep closer like Excession to navigate through, which is why horses with Nadal's running style have been winning it lately.

Furthermore, Nadal is being asked to rate in his works and has done so thus far. Being on the inside forced his hand in the Rebel. If he draws better next time, there won't be the same rush from the gate, allowing Nadal to relax and show whether there's even more improvement to be seen.

Santa Anita Park Allowance

Winner: Charlatan

On the Board: Rushie, Great Power

Distance/Time: 1 mile, 1:36.24

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 106

Grade: B

Analysis: There is no mistaking this colt’s talent. He is fast and proved that speed can carry around two turns.

In two starts, he has run his opponents off their feet, then had enough left in the tank to win under wraps. Saturday, he sprinted through solid splits of 23.14, 46.84, and 1.11.04. By the time he reached the top of the stretch, the rest of the field was gassed.

Charlatan drew off to win by more than 10 lengths, getting his final furlong in :12.90 while under a snug hold. Distance does not look like it will be an issue for Charlatan despite a more speed-oriented pedigree on top.

While his wins have been eye-catching, however, let's not yet anoint him the second coming of Justify. There are similarities but this season Charlatan might not even be the best in his own barn.

Nadal has fought off pace pressure in two consecutive races. Meanwhile, Authentic proved in his San Felipe (G2) score that he too can get through quick splits and repel the closers.

Charlatan has yet to face that sort of pressure. What will Charlatan do if a Nadal or Authentic type looks him in the eye? Maybe he'll be a dominant Justify type. Horses more often than not wilt.

A major Derby prep could well answer that question.

 
Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3)

Winner: Field Pass

On the Board: Invader, Fancy Liquor

Distance/Time: 9 furlongs, 1:49.34

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Grade: C

Analysis: When formerly known as the Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park's Jeff Ruby Steaks has led to some Derby success. But Animal Kingdom types don’t come around that often.

In the case of Field Pass, Saturday's winner isn't Triple Crown-nominated, and connections expect to send him on to graded stakes races on turf.

Invader received a perfect stalking spot behind pace-setting Fancy Liquor. You could argue that he was made to move a bit early when Field Pass moved up with 3/8 miles left to run. However, Field Pass and Invader made essentially the same move; only the winner didn't flatten out.

The final time was the ninth-fastest on record for the race, but the final furlong in 13.04 seconds isn't overly impressive by Derby trail standards. Look for little or no impact on the trail out of this one, unless perhaps Invader gives dirt a try in a final prep.