Head to Head: A case for Built in Kentucky Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. American Promise (12-1)

American Promise is a need-the-lead type, so the rail is a good spot for him. He has won over a sloppy track, and his pedigree suggests that he should love 1 1/8 miles. But he was a speed-fade type in six of seven starts. He lost all chance in the Southwest (G3) when he was off slow and lost his speed advantage. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee's Brisnet ratings are firmly stuck in the 80s, except for his maiden victory, when he earned a 92. Justify's son is out of the winning Tapit mare, Tapella, and he is half to Grade 2 heroine Hoosier Philly, who won stakes from a mile to 1 1/16 miles and was second in the 1 1/8 mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Their dam's half-sister, Ulele, also placed in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). American Promise has speed to his outside. He could steal the Risen Star if left alone on the pace, but East Avenue and Magnitude might not let that happen. Traditionally, horses exiting the inside post don't fare well in the Risen Star. Exotics.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise broke his maiden in his sixth start to close out his juvenile year. The colt crossed the wire sixth in his seasonal bow in the Southwest (G3) but was disqualified to seventh after forcing Publisher into the rail. American Promise does own a field-high 102 Equibase speed figure from his sole victory, but he was already fading in the Southwest when he caused the interference. Keith Asmussen takes over from Tyler Bacon. Pass.

2. Jonathan's Way (4-1)

Jonathan's Way will be scratched because of an unsatisfactory blood count.

3. Vassimo (8-1)

Undefeated in two starts, Vassimo ships to a new track, tries a new surface, faces stakes types and adds distance. The class of his rivals in his last couple of starts is suspect. One returned to beat maidens, and that's about it for both fields. In his debut, Vassimo posted a glacial 1:39.43 for a mile, with a 13.17-second final furlong. That earned him a solid 88 Brisnet Speed Rating. In the optional-claiming allowance start at Tampa, Vassimo traveled 1 mile 40 yards in 1:39.42. Although his speed rating dropped a couple of points, his late-pace figure increased to a competitive 97. In the race at Tampa, Vassimo hesitated before passing the pacesetter, then focused on moving forward. He wasn't fully extended, as his ears went up once Vassimo knew he conquered his rival. Nyquist's son should love 1 1/8 miles. He is out of the multiple Grade 2 winner Bsharpsonata and is half to three stakes-placed milers, two graded. In addition, a half-sister bore a Grade 3 winner, and his dam is half to multiple graded-winning sprinter Backtalk. Vassimo's second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Race Lens shows that Nyquist is an excellent mud sire with 48% in the money, and three of Vassimo's half-siblings have won or placed over the surface. Given his family's history, Vassimo may handle mud and has the pedigree to travel 1 1/8 miles. His speed ratings aren't terrible, and Todd Pletcher has shipped successfully from Gulfstream to win the Risen Star, though he last stood in the winner's circle in 2014. Have to respect the connections, and it's time to see what this well-bred colt can do. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Vassimo is perfect in two starts. The Nyquist colt debuted a winner at Gulfstream Park, winning a mile event by one length. He then won a 1 mile 40-yard event at Tampa Bay by 2 3/4 lengths to kick off 2025. The runner-up of Vassimo's debut race won next out at Oaklawn. Two from the colt's second race have made subsequent starts, and they both hit the board. This will be the colt's third track but first time racing outside Florida. Regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks with him. Pletcher continues to be a top trainer of Kentucky Derby prospects, winning at a 16% clip with a 46% in-the-money rate with 3-year-olds in graded stakes on dirt over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Contender.

4. East Avenue (9-5)

East Avenue faceplanted at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, leaving him near the back of the pack. Initially, he wasn't a fan of the kickback, as he was climbing and tossing his head. East Avenue had a clear pathway along the rail, but mentally, he had had enough and checked in ninth, 13 1/2 lengths out of it. East Avenue is bred for classic distances. Medaglia d'Oro's son is out of the unraced Ghostzapper mare Dance Music, who is a half-sister to 2023 champion older dirt male and horse of the year Cody's Wish. Dance Music's full brother Endorsed is a multiple-graded winning miler who placed twice at 1 1/8 miles. Another full brother, Bocephus, is a stakes-winning miler and a stakes-placed sprinter. East Avenue's second dam Dance Card won the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle Stakes (G1) and was third behind Groupie Doll and Judy the Beauty in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The Brendan Walsh trainee has a series of five-furlong breezes at the Fair Grounds. If he's matured, he could be dangerous if left alone on the lead. Exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue was the post-time favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile off a previously unblemished record but lost all chance when he stumbled badly at the start and relegated to the back of the field rather than taking up his usual pace-setting position. The Godolphin homebred won his first two starts, including the Breeders' Futurity (G1), by a combined 13 1/4 lengths. Gun Runner winner and Lecomte (G3) runner-up Built exited East Avenue's debut race, and Breeders' Futurity (G1) runner-up Ferocious was most recently fourth in the Holy Bull (G3) while not being fully cranked for his best performance. The colt's best Equibase speed figure is the 99 he received in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Walsh is 9% wins with a 32% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past year and 16% with a 40% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff over the past year, according to Race Lens. Tyler Gaffalione has the return call. Contender.

5. Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Chunk of Gold is the Risen Star wildcard and gets a shot over a muddy track after two starts on Turfway's Tapeta. In his debut, Chunk of Gold overcame a slow break, had to check, made a wide spin around the turn and dueled a stubborn foe down the lane. The Ethan West trainee had similar trouble in the Leonatus Stakes, breaking from the rail and steadying back to last. Chunk of Gold was green down the lane but closed like a train once he straightened out and received a sharp 102 late-pace figure. By Grade 1-winning router Preservationist, Chunk of Gold is a full brother to last year's Martha Washington Stakes heroine Band of Gold, who won the 1 1/16-mile contest over a sloppy track. Their dam is a half to multiple Grade 3 winner My Boy Jack, who was third in two starts beyond 1 1/16 miles. Chunk of Gold overcame trouble in both starts, and he runs like he would appreciate the long stretch at Fair Grounds. Live long shot.

Trained by Ethan West, Chunk of Gold debuted a winner at Turfway Park in mid-December and followed that up with a runner-up effort in the Leonatus Stakes, also at Turfway Park. The colt's debut race has so far produced one next-out winner. The Risen Star will be Chunk of Gold's first attempt on traditional dirt, and West is just 11% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate with all-weather to dirt runners over the last five years. In that same time frame, he's 50% wins with a 100% in-the-money rate in graded stakes. But he sent out Runaway Storm to two starts, both on turf, and the gelding brought home a check off double-digit odds. Abel Cedillo, who was up for Chunk of Gold's debut race, has the mount. Pass. 

6. Seattle Road (30-1)

Seattle Road didn't have his closing kick in the Lecomte and finished seventh. It was a typical regression after his first victory. A late-maturing type, Seattle Road exhibited gradual improvement in each start, which paved his way to the winner's circle in his fourth attempt against a full field of maidens at the Fair Grounds, winning by a head. Seattle Road's pedigree suggests he should handle 1 1/8 miles. By Quality Road, Seattle Road is out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare, Seattle Slang. His second dam, Seattle Smooth, was a Grade 1 and multiple Grade 2 winner who was capable from sprints to 1 1/8 miles.

Seattle Road is a one-run closer who has a shot of earning a check if a speed duel develops, and he can bulldoze past tired runners. But I'm not taking the road less traveled. Pass.

Trained by Thomas Amoss, Seattle Road improved in every start but didn't break his maiden until his fourth start. He beat a bunch of several-start maidens and then finished seventh in the Lecomte last out. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. retains the mount, and I don't see this colt improving off that effort after finishing behind about a third of this field in previous starts. Pass.

7. Septarian (12-1)

Septarian returns from a distant third-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The winner, Guns Loaded, fired a blank in the Holy Bull (G3) after contesting the pace and more recently, runner-up Treaty of Rome never got on track in the Sam F. Davis and finished a well-beaten ninth. The Chad Brown trainee fired a pair of bullet four-furlong works at Payson while in blinkers, including a second-to-last move in company with Hopeful (G1) placed Incentive Pay. On the inside, Septarian turned his head to keep track of his workmate. It was an average breeze, with both going up and down as much as forward.  

By Protonico, best known as the sire of Medina Spirit, Septarian is out of the unraced Amadeus Melody, a daughter of the Group 1-wining turf sprinter Amadeus Wolf. Septarian's distaff line is European, and his dam's half-sister, Molly Malone, is a French Group 1 turf router who beat the boys. Normally, I would pass on Septarian. but there are positive notes. Septarian gets blinkers for the first time and breezed two bullets in them. He's making his second start off the layoff and second for a high-percentage barn. Plus, I respect the duo of Brown and Prat. Toss him into your exotics if playing the field, but I'm going to pass.

Trained by Chad Brown, Septarian began his career 2-for-2 and finished third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his first attempt at a route. So far, the best the Mucho Macho Man field has accomplished is a second in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes; runner-up Treaty of Rome was most recently ninth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Septarian's best Equibase number is 82, but that dropped to 65 in the Mucho Macho Man. Brown will add blinkers and is 30% wins with a 52% in-the-money rate with first-time blinkers. Flavien Prat takes over from Tyler Gaffalione. Pass.

8. Giocoso (20-1)

Giocoso takes another shot at dirt despite two solid turf victories. His speed ratings are in the solid 80s, and he could improve as a 3-year-old. Although he's stretching out after a long layoff, the Keith Desormeaux has a strong foundation plus several stamina works under his girth.

Giocoso has a solid turf-oriented pedigree. Although his sire, Not This Time, won on dirt, his sire is the legendary iron horse, Giant's Causeway. Giocoso's dam and half-sister were best over synthetic   and turf, and his distaff line's second and third generations contain international turf black type winners.

Despite the turfy family, Giocoso has a nice extension when he runs and seems to get over the dirt just fine. Horses with turf-oriented pedigrees often handle mud better than dry dirt. Not This Time's offspring hit the board 43% of the time in mud. Even if he handles the mud, Giocoso needs to step up in his first start off the layoff. Pass.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Giocoso has two career wins, both on turf, from six starts. Giocoso debuted in the same race at Churchill Downs as recent Sam F. Davis runner-up Owen Almighty before switching to the turf for his next two starts. He finished a close second in his second race before breaking his maiden in his third start. Desormeaux then put the colt back on dirt for a third-place finish in the Iroquois (G3) behind winner Jonathan's Way and runner-up Owen Almighty. Giocoso then finished sixth in the Bourbon Stakes (G2) before completing his juvenile year with a victory in an allowance race on turf. Desormeaux is 18% winner with a 43% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners but just 7% with a 33% in-the-money rate with runners entering off a two to six-month layoff. Jaime Torres gets the return call from November's allowance race. Pass.

9. Built (5-1)

Built showed tactical speed in the Lecomte after a runaway score in the Gun Runner Stakes, although his Brisnet rating dropped a few points between the two races. Built wasn't as impressive as Disco Time in the Lecomte, but he gradually gained ground in a one-paced style. By Hard Spun, Built is the first foal out of Curlin's daughter Sea Garden, so he is constructed to handle classic distances. Both his sire and damsire are noted for getting mudders. Sea Garden's half-brother Glenville Gardens is a Grade 2-winning turf sprinter in Canada. Built's third dam is Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley Vale, and the family includes Indian Vale, a multiple Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Wayne Catalano gave Built a swift second-to-last four-furlong breeze in 47.80, so he should be on his toes. Contender.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built enters off a determined runner-up finish in the Lecomte. The colt made a game bid up the inside to overtake loose on the lead Innovator but was nailed in the final strides by a fast-closing Disco Time. Prior to that, Built was the dominant winner of the Gun Runner Stakes. In the Gun Runner, Built set the pace, and I believe he was just a bit farther off the pace in the Lecomte than he would have preferred. Luis Saez takes over from Jareth Loveberry. Contender.

10. Render Judgment (12-1)

Render Judgment scratched from the Southwest Stakes with a foot problem and reappears for the Risen Star. Despite stumbling in the five-horse Gun Runner Stakes, the Ken McPeek trainee ran an average third in a merry-go-round event.

After his troubled start, in the five-horse Gun Runner, Rendered Judgment settled on the rail tailgating the pacesetter, Built, and stayed there the entire way, with no answer when called on in the stretch. He finished 9 1/2 lengths behind Built and 2 3/4 lengths behind Magnitude. Render Judgment was very close to the rail in the Gun Runner, almost brushing it. His performances have earned him a shiny new set of blinkers to help him focus.

By Blame, who has 48% of his progeny hitting the board in mud, Render Judgment is the first foal out of a daughter of Commissioner. His damsire was a multiple graded-winning router who placed in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Class in his distaff line skips to the third generation, including Grade 1-winning turf miler Karelian and Queen's Plate hero Basquwin. Render Judgment's speed ratings and overall record are average. This one-paced grinder will need considerable improvement to be a threat. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment, who was third in the Gun Runner Stakes to close out 2024, will rejoin the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby after scratching from the Southwest. The son of Blame stumbled at the start of the Gun Runner, but as a one-run type, that did not take him out of his element. He ran decently after that but was never a threat to Built and Magnitude. McPeek is 15% wins with a 38% in the money rate with runners off a one- to two-month layoff. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Exotics.

11. Jolly Samurai (30-1)

Jolly Samurai was a big horse in a small pond at Remington Park as a sprinter but hasn't been a threat in his last two starts in deeper water. The Danny Pish trainee's speed ratings are in the low 80s. Jolly Samurai's pedigree indicates that he should handle distance, but his performance indicates he's best as a sprinter.

First Samurai has 46% of his progeny hitting the board in mud. Three of Jolly Samurai's half-siblings won or placed on off tracks. Black type skips to the second generation in his distaff line and includes graded-winning sprinter-milers Change Up, her daughter Pinch Hit and second dam Round Robin.

Jolly Samurai is facing a stronger field than the Springboard Mile and needs improvement to be a threat. Perhaps he can close for a minor award, but I'll pass.

Trained by Danny Pish, Jolly Samurai ripped off three straight wins at Remington Park to begin his career, including victories in the Kip Deville and Clever Trevor sprints. When the going got tough, however, Jolly Samurai was not up to the task. He finished fifth in the Springboard Mile to finish out 2024 and was most recently ninth in the Lecomte. Pish continues to be winless in graded stakes over the last five years, and last had a runner finish in the money in 2023, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Rene Diaz retains the mount. Pass.

12. Vamos Carlitos (30-1)

Surprisingly, the well-bred Vamos Carlitos was tossed into a $40,000 claiming race on dirt after a poor showing on the lawn. He captured his debut over a wet-fast track at Horseshoe Indianapolis. After an astute claim by Gregory Foley, Vamos Carlitos settled at the back of the pack through soft early fractions, then closed like a freight train down the Fair Grounds stretch. Unfortunately, the wire came too soon, and he missed the victory by 3/4 length. He was bested by Admiral Dennis, who was previously fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes after a tough trip. The race yielded next-out winner Authentic Gallop. Vamos Carlitos earned a career-best 81 Brisnet rating, and his 106 late-pace figure tied with Jonathan's Way for the highest in the Risen Star. By Travers hero Catholic Boy, Vamos Carlitos is out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Gabeira and has a classic distance pedigree. Vamos Carlitos's half-brother Erase is a stakes-winning miler on Tapeta, and another half-brother is a stakes-placed sprinter. There's plenty of black type in Vamos Carlitos's distaff line. His dam is half to Grade 1 winning miler Emcee, the dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Constitution, the stakes-winning dam of Grade 3-winning turf router Marzo, and many more. There may be a lively pace in the Risen Star, and Vamos Carlitos can settle near the back of the pack, so the post won't bother him. If Florent Geroux times the ride right, Vamos Carlitos could post the upset. Live long shot.

Trained by Gregory Foley, Vamos Carlitos is 4: 2-0-0, with his victories coming in a low-level maiden race at Indianapolis and a claiming race at Churchill Downs. He enters off a runner-up finish to Admiral Dennis in an optional claimer. Foley is 10% wins with a 38% in-the-money finish in graded stakes in the last five years and last saddled a graded winner on July 1, 2023, according to Race Lens. Florent Geroux takes over from Jose Ortiz. Pass.

13. Magnitude (12-1)

Every once in a while, Magnitude throws a clunker. That happened both times against Grade 3 company. Coincidence? The Steve Asmussen trainee's Brisnet ratings are in the mid 80s, and his late pace figures are tepid.

By Not This Time, Magnitude is out of the Bernardini mare Rockadelic, so he should love 1 1/8 miles. But he and his three siblings haven't handled an off track. His second dam, Octave, captured the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1s, and among Octave's many accomplishments, she was second in the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Magnitude may be used early to get position, and his dismal effort on mud makes him a pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude chased Built all the way around the track in the Gun Runner to finish 6 3/4 lengths behind that one while also being clear of third-place finisher Render Judgment. The Not This Time colt had a poor start in the Lecomte and ended up racing farther back in the field than he would have liked. He ended up sixth, 2 3/4 lengths behind winner Disco Time. Drawing the far outside post is not going to do Magnitude any favors here as jockey Ben Curtis is going to have to use him early to secure the colt's preferred early running style. Curtis is 10% wins with a 40% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years and just picked up his first and only victory in a graded stakes in January when Recharge won the Houston Ladies Classic (G3), according to Race Lens. I liked Magnitude in both the Gun Runner and the Lecomte (G3), but I'm not a fan of his Risen Star post nor the jockey change from Jose Ortiz to Curtis. Pass.