Trainer's Tales: Super Seven…Kentucky Derby Edition
“There you go again” and “A real fine mess you’ve gotten into this time.” These were my thoughts right after speaking with Horse Racing Nation's Managing Editor, Brian Zipse.
As a result of submitting a few articles to HRN as a guest, Brian had offered me the opportunity to become a mainstay at HRN, by designing a page for my blogs. Although my earlier writings had been well received, I knew that putting two or three well thought-out articles together, aren’t the same as finding separate topics for my new blog, on a weekly or biweekly basis.
That being said, I’ve never let the little things slow me down.
Like in the spring of 1987, for example. With one cheap claimer and a few hundred bucks in my pocket, I had made my way from Colorado down to Farmington, New Mexico, and hoped to find work on the track.
Trouble was that nobody had any horses there yet. On my way to breakfast one morning, I spotted a crew preparing to pour concrete and I asked the men if they could use any help. They replied by telling me the boss would come later, although they said they had enough hands already.
Not that I was a concrete worker, but I understood enough about it to grab my rubber boots and grab a shovel. This action undoubtedly came as a surprise to those guys, but they were not going to turn away free help.
When the boss did come by, he responded by giving me some work on his ranch, so my efforts were rewarded, even though I didn’t know much about concrete. Alternatively, I lack experience with writing as well.
However, I may know little about horse racing: I know people and places that go with horse racing. So armed with this knowledge, I believe things just might turn out all right.
Initially, I had planned for a top ten list until I noticed almost everyone has a top ten list already. As an alternative, I’ve decided to go with Trainer's Tales Super Seven. In it, I will discuss seven of my top choices in varying categories.
The list may include current or past horses, people, and events from the horse racing world. Hopefully, you all will like it.
Because it seems a hot topic currently, I wanted to start by attempting to land on the winner of the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Today, I received the updated odds on Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby Futures, and my selections are based on which horses I believe offer the most value in that respect. Here is my super seven along with current futures pool odds:
7. Tiznow R J (Tiznow-Ruban Bleu by Broken Vow) 150-1
This horse is my swing for the fences choice. I’m not quite sure where I zoned in on this colt, perhaps he was featured in HRTV’s Horizons. I do know he has been part of my virtual stable all summer. A seemingly slow developer, his first start came at Churchill in a mile MSW, in which he was third beaten a neck by Keen Ice. He followed that race with a lackluster effort in another MSW at Churchill while the line says, “off slow, clipped heels.”
In his most recent race, a MSW at Fairgrounds, Tiznow R J put it all together and scored an impressive 13 ¼ length win. The final time of 1:43.71 is on par with that run by Intense Holiday in last year’s Risen Star. Vicar's in Trouble's Lecomte Stakes score was 1:42.57. Tiznow R J is owned by Mike McCarty and trained by Steve Asmussen. Typical of an Asmussen trainee, Tiznow R J has had a slow work since then, going a half-mile in :51.00. I assume his next start will be in the Lecomte S. (G3) on Jan. 17th. Play him before then if you plan to capitalize on these odds.
Tie - 6. Hootenanny (Quality Road-More Hennessy by Hennessy) 125-1
This colt was the winner of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and at 125-1, I believe he offers the greatest value for anyone interested in placing a future wager. The fact he ran most of his races on grass this year, is not an indication that he will not like the dirt. In fact, his immediate family were all primarily dirt horses. His sire, Quality Road won the 1 1/8 mile Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, while the first two broodmare sires are Hennessy and Capote, both of which competed in the Juvenile Dirt division. Capote was first in 1986 and Hennessy second1995. Additionally, his trainer, Wesley Ward proved just how well he can do on the big days. Winning with this colt on BC day, and with Judy the Beauty, as well. Furthermore, of his other four starters in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, Luck of Kitten, Sunset Glow, and No Nay Never ran second, while Undrafted was third in the Turf Sprint, respectively.
Tie - 6. The Great War (War Front-Guide by Pulpit) 75-1
After finishing fourth in this Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), this colt was moved to the barn of Wesley Ward. That move would seem to indicate that the connections were pleased with his effort, and feel they have a better chance of winning the Derby with him if he were left here. That, as opposed to prepping in Europe with Aidan O’Brien. In the juvenile, this colt was in behind horses in tight quarters and I thought he did well to close for fourth when he did shake loose. I am interested to see where he will start next, although, I would consider a future wager on him now, if you like those odds. If his next start is a winning one, expect them to plummet considerably.
5. The Gomper (Sky Mesa-Tri Delt Girl by Sefapiano) 40-1
This Ronald W. Ellis trainee won an MSW event at LARC a while back, and the way he did it indicated that he could take a major step forward. His dam is a four-time winner with three of those races coming at a mile or farther. The connections thought enough of this filly to run her in the Prairie Meadows Derby, where she finished fifth. The third dam is the multiple grade one stakes and Eclipse Award winning Mom's Command. Indeed a pedigree that could produce a classic winner. I am anxious to see where they run this horse next and would like to see how he does going longer.
4. Punctuate (Distorted Humor-Peppers Pride by Desert God) 40-1
Similar to The Gomper, this Bob Baffert trainee was the easiest of winners in a MSW on 09/27/14. The dam, Peppers Pride, is the undefeated winner of 19 races, and if this colt has his dam's will to win, it's possible he might just offer the best value on this list. Peppers Pride, earned $1,066,089 while racing exclusively in New Mexico. Desert God is an unraced son of Fappiono, out of the Blushing Groom (FR) mare Blush With Pride, and he provides Punctuate with the Mr. Prospector influence -- always beneficial in a Derby prospect's pedigree. Moreover, Blush With Pride won the 1982 Ashland Stakes (G2) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Although he hasn’t raced back yet, Punctuate does show a steady string of recent works. The best of these, a respectable 1:11.40, indicates that we might see him surface soon at Santa Anita’s winter meet. Considering Baffert’s success in the classics with other seemingly second string types, don’t be surprised if this colt isn’t the cream of the crop when it’s all said and done.
3. Imperia (Medaglia d’Oro-Cocoa Beach (Chi) by Doneraile Court) 35-1
Winner of this year’s Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park, and tenth in the BC Juvenile Turf, I believe this colt's only race on dirt was also his best. Moreover, the race was contested over the Churchill Downs surface when finishing a neck back of Zayat Stables' El Kabeir. His dam Cocoa Beach (Chi) was a multiple grade one winner on both turf and dirt, and was second in the 2008 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Ladies' Classic to Champion Zenyatta. Imperia is owned by Godolphin Racing LLC and trained by Kiaran P. McLaughlin, the same connections that campaigned one of last year’s early Derby favorites in Cairo Prince. As you may know, Cairo Prince was sidelined with an injury prior to the Derby, and Imperia provides them an excellent opportunity for redemption.
2. Blofeld (Quality Road-Storm Minstrel by Storm Cat) 30-1
If you needed affirmation on the dirt pedigree of Hootenanny, you can find it in Blofeld's abilities. By the same sire, Quality Road and out a Storm Cat mare (also Hennessy’s sire.) Blofeld is a perfect three for three on dirt, including wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. and the Futurity Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park. Add his maiden win at Saratoga, and his wins have come on three different surfaces and three different distances. That is a good indication that he carries his track with him. The dam, Storm Minstrel, was a multiple stakes winner and displayed durability by winning or placing in sixteen of twenty-seven races. I believe that I favor this colt most of all of the Pletcher contenders.
1. Texas Red (Afleet Alex-Ramatuelle (Chi), by Jeune Homme) 12-1
Like I said, this list consist of horses that I believe to offer value in accordance with the current odds in the future wagering pools. Standing as the second favorite to Dortmund, I feel that this horse is a bargain at 12-1. He was an impressive visual winner of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and in comparison to the latest renewals of that race, impressive in that respect also. His 1:41.91 for the mile and sixteenth event was best of those held at Santa Anita in the last three years. The only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Juvenile was Street Sense in 2006. Much the same as Texas Red, he came from well back to win the Juvenile by 10 lengths in a time of 1:42.59. Some may argue that Texas Red was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in this year's Juvenile. I will point out that the same situation often presents its self in the Derby, and if that happens, this guy may be picking up the pieces of that race as well.
Well, there you have it folks -- Trainer's Tales: Super Seven inaugural edition. Save this list for your files. Perhaps you might have fun with me in May if none of these colts do well in the Derby. On the other hand, if you find yourself needing assistance spending all the money you win, don’t forget to tip the teller.