Woodbine 2015: A Dyna-Mite Queen's Plate

The American Triple Crown season has been completed for a month, but the Canadian version is set to get underway on Sunday. First up is the Queen's Plate from Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario. This year marks the 156th running of the race, making it the longest continuously run stakes race in North America. The series continues next at Fort Erie on July 28th, with the Prince of Wales Stakes, before concluding back at Woodbine with the Breeders Stakes on August 16th.

The Queen's Plate, for three-year-olds foaled in Canada, will be run at 10 furlongs over polytrack. Fourteen horses will contest the event, including a trio of runners from the Reade Baker barn. The veteran horseman and top fixture in the yearly trainer standings at Woodbine, has accumulated many stakes wins, but an illustrious Queen's Plate win is missing from his resume. One of the horses Baker saddles is a filly, Academic, who appears the most likely of the Baker contingent to bring him the top prize. She scored a wire-to-wire win three weeks ago in the Oaks at 66-1 when defeating a field of nine rivals. She looks to repeat the Oaks/Plate double feat that was completed last year by another filly, Lexi Lou.

Last year's winning filly brought Queen's Plate victory to trainer Mark Casse for the first time. Casse, a seven-time Sovereign Award winner as Canada's top trainer, sends out a pair of colts on Sunday. Overall, six trainers participating in this year's edition have amassed a total of 17 Queen's Plate victories, led by Roger Attfield with eight. The 75 year old Hall of Fame trainer is tied for the most wins with Harry Giddings Jr. Attfield saddled Norcliffe in 1976 for his first Plate win and Not Bourbon in 2008 gave him the record tying number eight. In Sunday Queen's Plate, he's represented by Plate Trial winner, Danish Dynaformer and Billy's Star, who finished sixth behind his stablemate in that affair. Of the two runners, the former, who was made the morning line choice at 3-1, is the more accomplished and presents the best opportunity to give Attfield the record. Let's take a look at the entire field from the rail out.

PP-HORSE/Jockey/Trainer

1-Shaman Ghost/Rafael Hernandez/Brian Lynch--Enters the Plate on a 3-race winning streak, all at 1 1/6 mile over three different racetracks, with his latest being a sensational score last out in the G3 Marine Stakes. In that event, this colt raced wide, had one horse beaten after three-quarters had been run, was blocked at the top of the lane, angled out and came motoring down the stretch to score by a half-length. This talented son of Ghostzapper has been playing the waiting game for 7-weeks, but he's worked extremely well in the interim, most notably his pretty impressive six furlong drill on June 19th, followed by a substantial work last Saturday. All indications are he's in top form and is a serious contender to take this prestigious event.

2-Oakton/Tyler Pizzaro/Mark Casse--Racing career didn't commence until his 3-year old year and during his six races up to this point, he's raced on all three surfaces. Spent the winter in Oaklawn where he was well beaten in his first two maiden attempts on dirt. The first at 6 furlongs, the second at 1 1/16-miles. Next up, was a visit to Keeneland where he was dropped in against maiden claimers. He wired the field while being pressured on the lead for much of the race before pulling away in the late stages to win. After arriving at Woodbine, this Macho Uno runner tested turf and poly, but hasn't been closer than fourth-place in three outings. Was supplemented to this race, and why not? He's certainly on the upswing and his latest speed figure is highly competitive with this bunch, but still, facing stakes company for the first time will be a demanding task for this one.

3-Ault/David Moran/Dan Vella--Although this English Channel colt has been a close runner-up in three of his five lifetime starts, he's still seeking his first win. His three second-place finishes have all come over the Woodbine poly, including his latest effort around two-turns, while both off the board placing's were recorded over the Gulfstream turf. He belongs with maidens. Trainer hit glory twice this event, most recently in 2012.

4-Academic/Justin Stein/Reade Baker--WOW, who saw that 66-1 win by this filly in the Woodbine Oaks coming?  She took the early lead from the outset, which is her running style, then completely dominated, setting a new track record in the process. Her final time (1:48.86) was a full second faster than Danish Dynaformer who had won the Plate Trail one race earlier. Call it deja vu all over again, as last year's Oaks winner, Lexi Lou, also ran a full second faster than the Plate Trial winner. She subsequently then went on to capture the Queen's Plate prize. Fillies have had great success in the Plate winning two of the last 4 running's and 35 overall since its inception in 1860, but there hasn't been back to back wins by the ladies since 1927-28. This gal is likely to have the lead all to herself once again and just like the Oaks where she was never challenged, she's going to find clear sailing in here as the only speed. Up to now, she's outrun her sprint pedigree and looked very powerful winning last time. Supplemented for this race, a stern test awaits her, but she's quite capable of bringing home the top prize.

5-Billy’s Star/Eurico da Silva/Roger Attfield--Colt was winless during his two year old season, but finally broke through into the win column this year two starts back when he closed from last place to score impressively. He was thrust next into the Plate Trial where he encountered difficulty with the incident involving Danzig Moon. When that one started dropping back through the field, this colt had to swerve sharply to the outside to avoid contact. He responded favorably following that episode, closing willingly to finish sixth. He was only beaten five lengths and managed to beat half the field, so his efforts were monumental given what had unfolded. He isn't without merit, but still, it's asking  a tremendous amount of this colt to give more than he's probably capable of at this point.

6-Sweet Grass Creek/Jesse Campbell/Mike Keough--A few things I notice about this colt. 1) He is a son of Wando, Canada's last Triple Crown winner (2003). 2) Two starts back he was a very impressive maiden winner from the far outside post in a twelve horse field. 3) He has vastly improved from his juvenile season. He enters the Plate following a second-place finish in an allowance race. He pressed and overtook the pacesetter, only to have that one re-rally and win by a head. He's had a month to prepare and is in capable hands with a two-time winning Plate trainer, but even with the positives noted, this one has a long way to go.

7-Danish Dynaformer/Patrick Husbands/Roger Attfield--Put on a impressive showing in winning the Plate Trial by three-quarters of a length. Tracked in mid-pack, then swept 4-wide on the far turn before unleashing a strong winning move and then having enough in his tank to hold off a couple of late closers. A sign that the win may have been forthcoming was the previous outing in the Marine Stakes when he got shuffled back on the far turn, went extremely wide at the top of the stretch, then closed fast on the outside before running out of ground. All six lifetime starts have been around two-turns, evenly distributed between 8 1/2 and 9 furlongs, with a pair of turf wins and four in the money finishes. He'll be put to the test going the classic distance, but this bay son of Dynaformer has the talent and the extra ground could prove beneficial. Is prepared by an eight-time Queen's Plate winning trainer who saddled his first Plate winner in 1976 and now nearly 40 years later looks to make history with a record breaking ninth win in this event. Major player.

8-Conquest Boogaloo/Alan Garcia/Mark Casse--He was off slow in all of his four juvenile starts, but still managed to win a pair of 7 furlong events, including the Swynford Stakes. He's been much better leaving the gate in 2015, but now this Scat Daddy colt has been snakebitten by two consecutive bad trips. Was completely shut-off  with no running room in the stretch of the Marine Stakes and last time out in the Plate Trial he was severely impacted by the Danzig Moon mishap. The occurrence caused him to veer in sharply, losing contact with much of the field and a lot of ground. He was then forced to circle the field seven or eight wide around the far turn before responding with a splendid stretch run to finish third, beaten just two lengths. Truly a remarkable and miraculous run. Definitely is an improving colt and the way he handled himself striding through the lane of the Plate Trial indicates to me that the extra ground won't be a obstacle. In this massive sized field, he will need what he hasn't received recently, a clean trip. If that happens, he's a late runner who can get the job done. Should not be overlooked.

9-Breaking Lucky/James McAleney/Reade Baker--Lookin At Lucky colt debuted at Gulfstream Park in early March, but was well beaten following trouble at the start. Quickly found the winner's circle upon coming north to Toronto. His next two races were around two turns in allowance company and he finished second and seventh respectively. The latter as the favorite against older horses. He worked impressively in the mornings before that last effort and has shown no ill affects from that eight-length loss by rebounding with a recent, quick five-furlong breeze. He's now back in against his own age group, but this is a different level of competition, one that he's highly unlikely to defeat.

10-Easy Indygo/Emma-Jayne Wilson/Nick Gonzalez--Like several others in here, this colt enters Canada's top race as a maiden winner. Is making his stakes debut in this spot and comes in off a third-place finish in an entry level allowance where he lost by a neck following a long stretch run where made up a ton of ground on the top two horses. Two back, he was runner-up to Portree who put in a gutty effort in the Plate Trial. Owner/Trainer combo captured this event in 2013 and the trainer was a previous winner of this event in 2010. This Marchfield colt should like the distance, but he's got to improve by leaps and bounds. Going to be a longshot on Sunday, and rightly so.

11-Portree/Gerry Olguin/Stuart Simon--The horse with the least experience in the race with just a trio of starts. Didn't race as a juvenile, but two year-old experience has moderate importance in handicapping this event, simply because the race is contested later in the year than the Kentucky Derby. However, what is essential and valuable is that a horse shows positive experience at a two-turn distance. This Chiefswood Stables runner has done just that. After a first out score at 6 1/2-furlongs, he was stretched out to 1 1/16-miles and was victorious over allowance foes. Off that showing, this gelding was asked to face high caliber horses in the Plate Trial going 9-furlongs and he responded with a big league effort in finishing fourth by 2 1/2-lengths. Tracking the pace in third while heading into the far turn of the Plate Trial, he then rushed up to take over the lead and held the front with an eighth of a mile remaining. Although, he could not hold off the onslaught of the late runners, he hung in tough right up to the end. His stakes debut in the Plate Trial demonstrated that he could compete at a higher level and he really lifted his speed figure, so he looks to be a rapidly improving type. This son of a Plate winner (Niigon) still has quite a bit to prove, but he's heading in the right direction. Expect another good try.

12-Milwaukee Mist/Gary Boulanger/Pavel Matejka--Ontario-bred horse has never competed in Canada, but rather, he's done all his racing in the U. S. in the state of Kentucky. Another who did not race as a 2-year old. Got his racing career off in January with a first out maiden win at Turfway Park. Two starts later, he finished third in a open stakes race. Has split six lifetime starts equally between synthetic and turf, so there is experience on polytrack. His last two starts have come at Churchill Downs in entry level allowance, where he finished fourth and seventh respectively, following a bit of trouble in each. Last time a Queen's Plate winner prepped in the States was 2004 (Wild Desert). The drop in class here to Ontario-breds may help him some, but overall, this late runner isn't fast enough.

13-Bear At Last/Rico Walcott/ Reade Baker--Is the most raced horse in the Queen's Plate field with eleven starts under his belt. His lone career win came in a 1 1/16 mile maiden affair last November. Has had limited success in half of his four stakes ventures, with his best showing coming in the open company Wando Stakes where he made a strong run but was beaten a length. As a 3-year old, this son of Marchfield has faced tougher when pitted against the aforementioned open company, as well as older opponents. His only try this year against Ontario-bred horses came last out in the Plate Trial. He was tracking the pace, sitting just two lengths off the lead, then got shuffled back on the far turn. He didn't give up and persevered with a bit of run in the final stages of the race and finished a respectable seventh. Even with a better trip, there isn't any evidence in his record that convinces me he can conquer these.

14-Ami’s Flatter/Luis Contreras/Josie Carroll--After a promising winter in South Florida where this colt earned enough points for a guaranteed spot in this year's Kentucky Derby, his connections decided against participating in the "Run for the Roses" and opted instead to focus on Canada's biggest thoroughbred horse race. Don't know why he uncharacteristically threw in a puzzler last out in the Marine Stakes, where he was the heavy favorite, but I feel you can draw a line through the effort because it was his first start in 7 weeks and quite possibly he may still have been feeling the affects from the rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail. Got a brief respite from his morning training following the Marine, but when recently returning to the work tab, he's looked very good stretching his legs. Possibly the short freshening was all he needed to get his mind back on business. We'll soon find out. His only other synthetic try was his maiden debut score last fall over the Woodbine polytrack, so the surface should be kind to him. In 2006, trainer became the first female conditioner to win this race and she added another in 2011. Blinkers are removed. The talent is there and just maybe this son of Flatter will show why he was made the winterbook favorite for this race.

ANALYSIS: With the make-up of this field comprised mostly of mid-pack runners and deep closers, it will be heaven up on the front-end for Academic alone on the lead. She's got to navigate another furlong, but if she's able to dictate cozy fractions, she'll wield the upper hand over the closing runners, all who have to work out perfect trips in this bulky field. However, as is the case with large fields, one or two horses, in order to avoid early trouble, throw their preferred running style out the window and go blasting out of the gate to join in the fray close to the front end. There are a couple runners in here that could do just that on Sunday and pester the filly causing the pace to accelerate. There are two ways to go here, bet the filly on the grounds that she won't be pressured and a repeat of her last race will probably get it done. Her odds will probably be good enough to justify taking the risk. Or, assume that she will have company at some point and if engaged, it will leave her unable to fend off the late closing horses.

I'll go with the latter scenario and make Danish Dynaformer my top call. This isn't a sentimental pick just because I want to see trainer Attfield break the record. No way. I'm selecting this colt because, he's nicely drawn in post 7 as opposed to the rail horse (Shaman's Ghost) and the extreme outside horse (Ami's Flatter), both who I think can win this with their best if traffic doesn't interfere. Danish Dynaformer is a late runner who will also need a trouble free trip, but it's the post position draw that was my determining factor. Had post draw been reversed with either of the inside or outside horse, of course, I would have made a different win selection. In addition, he may be a bit more forwardly placed in the pack then the other two. I'll also box Danish Dynaformer in exacta's with the filly and the two aforementioned colts. For tri's and super's, I'll work in Conquest Boogaloo and Billy's Star.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!