Prince of Wales Stakes 2018: Odds and Analysis

Three weeks ago at Woodbine in Toronto, Ontario, Wonder Gadot put on a fabulous display of equine power with a dominating performance over her 15 rivals in the $1 million Queen’s Plate to capture the first jewel in Canada’s Triple Crown.

Now the focus on Canadian thoroughbred racing shifts 90 miles south from the hustle and bustle of big city life to the quietness of the small town of Fort Erie, which lies seven furlongs across the Niagara River from Buffalo, New York.

Here amongst this beautiful community with a population of approximately 30,000 residents, sits a majestic racetrack, site of Tuesday's 83rd edition of the Prince of Wales Stakes.

The race was initially run in 1929 but was not held every year. It did not become a permanent fixture on the Canadian stakes calendar until 1947. When it was inaugurated as the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown series in 1959, the race instantly became the centerpiece of the yearly Fort Erie racing meet.

Contested at 1 3/16 miles, the $400,000 signature event for 3-year olds foaled in Canada is the richest race on Canadian dirt, and its longstanding tradition attracts horse racing fans from all across southern Ontario and western New York.

A field of six, which features the top three finishers from the Queen’s Plate, has assembled for round two, and there is always added excitement to Prince of Wales day whenever the Plate winner is on hand. That special occasion has occurred just once (Sir Dudley Digges, 2016) in the previous seven seasons, so Fort Erie racing fans have reason to be ecstatic this year.

Wonder Gadot will be saddled by Mark Casse, a three-time Prince of Wales-winning trainer. Another top Casse 3-year old runner, Flameaway, who finished 13th in this year’s Kentucky Derby, was nominated to the Prince of Wales. But the Scat Daddy colt will instead head to Saratoga for his next start in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes.

Here is a look at the field for the Prince of Wales, carded as Race 8 on the program with post time scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET.

1. Wonder Gadot [7-5 – Medaglia d’Oro – Velazquez/Casse – 12: 4-4-3 - $1,199,053] Canada’s top 2-year old female from last year was simply wonderful blitzing an oversized and, as it turned out, overmatched field of rivals in the Queen’s Plate. The key factor for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was adding blinkers for the first time following three straight second-place finishes. After clearing through an early log jam, she settled in not far behind the lead before launching her bid around the final turn. Wonder Gadot hit the top of the stretch in full flight and drew away to win by 4 3/4-lengths. The breakthrough performance marked her first win of 2018, following a string of narrow losses in six previous races where she finished either second or third. She has displayed her abilities numerous times at major racing venues, with impressive results, and has been in the money in all but one of her 12 career starts. Poised to strike again.

2. Absolution [6-1 - Singing Saint – Hernandez/Gattellaro – 8: 2-0-0 - $51,545] This colt was sixth in the Plate Trial, the final prep for the Queen’s Plate. He lacks dirt racing experience, but more importantly, he has been completely overmatched in all three of his stakes attempts. Don’t see this one making any impact.

3. Cooler Mike [4-1 – Giant Gizmo – Campbell/Nosowenko – 9: 3-2-1- $232,040] Moving up from allowance optional claiming ranks, this colt rounded out the trifecta spot three weeks ago in the Queen’s Plate, outrunning his 46-1 odds. He stalked the early pace from the inside for much of the race before angling out for the stretch run, digging in gamely to hold on to the show spot. Cooler Mike answered the distance question in the Plate. Now we'll see if he can handle dirt. He has never been worse than fourth in his nine outings. Displayed toughness needed at the top level.

4. Home Base [8-1 – Street Sense – Rocco, Jr/Tomlinson – 6: 2-1-0- $71,090] This colt has done all his racing in the United States. He was a $50,0000 claim as a maiden in his second start at the beginning of the year and has since managed a pair of dirt wins against going seven furlongs. Since the claim, he attempted longer distances twice, but encountered trouble both times. Shipped in from Kentucky for a nice recent work over the Fort Erie surface. Has dirt experience which could prove beneficial.

5. Aheadbyacentury [5-2 – Midnight Lute – Contreras/Ross – 8: 2-1-3 -$336,315] The Queen’s Plate runner-up endured a wide trip all the way around from post 15 and encountered a bit of trouble at the midway point of the race. Debuted last summer with a third-place finish in the Clarendon Stakes, so the talent was there early. Has not really run a bad race in his eight lifetime starts, finishing in the money six times. Both wins came in 2017, so he is still in search of his first victory after four starts this season. If he transfers his synthetic track form, the smaller field and better post could be all he needs. Jockey Luis Contreras is a three-time winner of this event, including the last two winners. A serious contender if he takes to dirt.

6. Eskiminzin [12-1 – Cold Harbor – Ryan/Grant – 7: 3-1-0- $186,223] His accomplishments last season as a juvenile at Woodbine, winning 2 of 3, including the Simcoe Stakes, put him on the Queen’s Plate trail this spring. However, after two consecutive poor prep efforts, it was time to regroup. Eskiminizin was given a couple of turf tries and captured the Bold Ruckus Stakes last month. This time, he attempts a new surface and a longer distance against tougher foes. Not ready for prime time.

Summary: It is speculative as to which horses among those lacking in dirt experience might be able to handle a conventional dirt track. If you foresee a surprise win here, make the play.

I, however, won’t get fancy. Wonder Gadot is simply in top-notch form. She enjoys a significant speed/class edge over the others and has won on dirt. She’s simply one of the best of her class. She has already run in the biggest 3-year-old filly race in the North America, the Kentucky Oaks, and was only beaten a neck by Monomoy Girl. Wonder Gadot appears headed for loftier goals down the road and will use this race as a prep for one of those future targets, the Grade 1 Alabama next month at Saratoga.

The addition of blinkers kept her completely focused on the task in the Queen’s Plate and that piece of equipment stays on. We know the distance will pose no issue. Unless her running style is hindered by a track bias, she should once again waltz to victory.

My Play: At minuscule odds, a win wager on Wonder Gadot is a terrible bet, and keying her on top of small-priced exactas is also not warranted. For me, she will be a single in all multi-race wagers involving Pick 3s, the Pick 4 and Pick 5.