Belmont Stakes: Pedigree and Stamina

I'm no pedigree expert by any stretch of the imagination, but what's strongly apparent to me year after year in the Belmont Stakes is, the horses that have the stamina influence in their bloodlines are the ones that excel at this distance.

The 12-furlongs is what makes this race a different animal all together. The one-and-a-half miles is extremely grueling, at least a quarter-mile further than what three-year old Triple Crown horses have already attempted. The extra quarter-mile is substantial. It's where the race is won and loss. One thing is for certain, it's the longest distance that most, if not all these horses will ever be asked to race.

Therefore, the importance of the distance cannot be magnified enough. It's usually the biggest component in the outcome, so handicappers must treat it as such. The ability of the horses to handle extra distance can be tough to gauge. Traditional handicapping fundamentals are still somewhat important, but the trump card here is pedigree/stamina. Who's got it? That's what this race boils down to, because there will be some very tired horses in the stretch.

In trying to analyze distance/stamina ability of the contestants, let's take a look (in alphabetical order) at the pedigree (primarily the sire, and secondly, the damsire), as those two components seem to be significant predictors.

Classic Empire – Sired by Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Pioneerof the Nile is a son of Belmont winner Empire Maker. The damsire is Breeders' Cup Classic winner Cat Thief, a son of top stallion Storm Cat, who boasts Northern Dancer as his grandsire and Triple Crown winner Secretariat as his damsire.

Epicharis - Japanese-bred colt was sired by Gold Allure, a champion sire in Japan. Gold Allure was sired by Sunday Silence, the winner of the Derby, Preakness and Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989. Sunday Silence spent his stud career in Japan, and was named the country's top sire numerous times. The damsire, Carnegie, won the famous Arc de Triomphe.

Gormley - A son of Malibu Moon, who sired 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. Malibu Moon is a son of A.P. Indy, the 1992 Belmont winner and one of the best stamina influences of all-time. The damsire is Bernstein, who raced only once in the United States, and is also a son of Storm Cat.

Hollywood Handsome - Sired by Tapizar, who is a son of top North American sire, Tapit. Two of the last three winners of the Belmont Stakes, Tonalist and Creator, were sired by Tapit. The damsire is Forestry, a successful sprinter also sired by Storm Cat.

Irish War Cry – A son of Curlin, winner of the Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup. Curlin is a son of Smart Strike, who sired 2010 Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky. Curlin has sired a pair of classic winners, Palace Malice (Belmont) and Exaggerator (Preakness). The damsire, Polish Numbers, possesses strong Northern Dancer bloodlines, so that provides plenty of stamina influence. 

J Boys Echo - Sired by Mineshaft, winner of the 2003 Horse of the Year award. Although Mineshaft did not participate in any Triple Crown races, he won twice at 10-furlongs. Mineshaft is also a son of A.P. Indy, so the strong stamina influence is present. The damsire is Menifee, who was runner-up to Charismatic in the first two legs of the 1999 Triple Crown.

Lookin At Lee - Is a son of Lookin at Lucky, who also sired Breaking Lucky, winner of the 2015 edition of the Prince Of Wales Stakes, the second part of the Canada's Triple Crown series. Lookin at Lucky is also a son of Smart Strike. The damsire is Langfuhr, a champion Canadian sprinter, who went on to sire 2003 Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando.

Meantime - By Shackleford, the 2011 Preakness winner. Shackleford is a son of Forestry. Mt. Livermore is the damsire, whose influence lends itself more towards sprinter types.

Multiplier - Sired by The Factor, who was a 5-time graded stakes winner. However, all but one of his 6 lifetime wins came sprinting and he never raced father than 9-furlongs. The damsire, Trippi, was another strong sprinter/miler whose only attempt at a classic distance was an eleventh-place finish in the 2001 Kentucky Derby.

Patch – Sired by Union Rags, who won this contest in 2012. The damsire of Patch is A.P. Indy, who not only sired 2007 Belmont winner Rags To Riches, but is a son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and can claim Secretariat as his damsire.

Senior Investment - Was sired by Discreetly Mine, a very fast miler and also a son of Mineshaft. Senior Investment's damsire is Deputy Commander, winner of the 1997 Travers Stakes.

Tapwrit - Colt is a son of Tapit, who is a grandson of A.P. Indy. The damsire, Successful Appeal, achieved most of his success sprinting, however, strong influences of Northern Dancer are in his pedigree.

Twisted Tom – A colt by Creative Cause, who finished third in the 2012 Preakness. Creative Cause is a son of Giant's Causeway, the Europe's Horse of the Year in 2000 and runner-up in that years Breeders' Cup Classic. The damsire, Thunder Gulch, won the Derby and Belmont in 1995, and sired 2001 Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given.

So, based on the breeding/stamina bloodlines, who do you think has the inherent ability to win the 149th Belmont Stakes?