2017 Prince of Wales Stakes Odds And Analysis

All eyes of the Canadian thoroughbred racing world shift 90 miles south from the hustle and bustle of big city life in Toronto, Ontario, to the quietness of the small town of Fort Erie, which lies approximately seven furlongs across the Niagara River from Buffalo, New York. Here among this beautiful community with a population of slightly more than 30,000 residents, sits the captivating and majestic Fort Erie Race Track, sight of Tuesday's 82nd edition of the Prince of Wales Stakes.

Although first held in 1929, the race was not run every year until it became a permanent fixture on the Canadian stakes calendar in 1947. When it was inaugurated as the second leg of the Triple Crown series in 1959, the race instantly became the centerpiece of the yearly Fort Erie racing meet.

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Contested at a distance of 1 3/16-miles, the $500,000 signature event is the richest race on Canadian dirt, and its longstanding tradition attracts horse racing fans from all across Southern Ontario and Western New York.

Although Queen's Plate winner, Holy Helena, was nominated to the race, she was not entered, so a bit of luster will be loss on the marquee affair, but her absence makes the race ripe for the picking for the seven Ontario-bred 3-year olds that have made the trek to the historic border oval for the race.

The star filly, who is being pointed to the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, August 19, was the only horse to have kept Tiz A Slam from victory in the Queen's Plate, and now the runner-up in the first jewel will take a try at the second leg. Without the Plate winner in the lineup, it marks the fourteenth year Canada will not see a horse sweep the series since Wando accomplished the feat in 2003.

The winningest jockey in Prince of Wales Stakes history is, Hugo Dittfach, with five wins from 1960 to 1967, while the late Gordon McCann tops all trainers with seven victories from 1951 through 1967.

Post time is approximately 7:45 p.m. The first race of the day leaves the gates at 4:20 p.m. The three-race series will conclude with the Breeders’ Stakes, a 1 1/2-mile endurance test over Woodbine's E.P. Taylor Turf Course, to be held on Sunday, August 13th. Let's take a look at each Prince of Wales contestant from the rail out.

PP - HORSE - ML ODDS - JOCKEY/TRAINER 

1 - Spirit of Caledon - 12-1 - Jerome Lermyte/Pat Parente - Finished a surprising sixth in the Queen's Plate as a 74-1 outsider, but that probably can be attributed to passing tired horses with a belated rally. Had to be supplemented to run in the Plate, and also this race.

2 - Aurora Way – 6-1 - Rafael Hernandez/Stuart Simon - Off an impressive debut win, he was elevated into stakes company for the Queen's Plate, but his lack of racing experience showed, and he faded to ninth after pressing the early pace.

3 - Woodbridge - 7-2 - David Moran/Mike Keogh - After a combination of synthetic and turf tries, this gelding will make first start on conventional dirt and goes a bit longer after finishing third in the 1-mile Charlie Barley Stakes on Plate day.

4 - State of Honor - 5-2 - Patrick Husbands/Mark Casse - On one side of the coin, he was impressive in consecutive races in Florida during the winter when runner-up to two of the eventual U.S.Triple Crown winners, but on the other side, he's prone to give up the lead late, a contributing factor in his 1 for 13 record.

5 - Tiz A Slam – 8-5 - Eurico DaSilva/Roger Attfield - Was looking to give his trainer a record Queen’s Plate win, but had to settle for second best as his determined closing bid from the middle of the pack was no match for the winner.

6 - Cool Catomine - 12-1 - Luis Contreras/John Ross - Supplemental entrant was a recent maiden winner on the Plate undercard with a 5-wide move through the far turn and a tenacious stretch run to win by a head. Takes a shot at the big time for his first dirt start.

7 - Jurojin – 20-1 - Simon Husbands/Harold LaDouceur - Pulled off a 21-1 upset when winning the Kingarvie Stakes in the final strides last fall, but since then, he's been struggling to find good form as he has been off the board in seven consecutive races. Shipped in early in the week to work over the racing surface.

ANALYSIS:

It’s been a long campaign for State of Honor, who has raced once a month since the beginning of the year, but he is the only horse in the field that has competed on dirt, and his results have been positive with 4 out of 5 in-the-money finishes. The Mark Casse colt holds a class advantage having been stakes placed in G1/G2 races in the States. He will be up front carving out the pace, but will he hold together all the way to the wire this time, or will he give up the lead again like he has in several past races. At low odds, it's a risky bet to find out.

As for the others, it's pure speculation as to whether their synthetic/turf form will transfer effectively to the dirt, but if either of the two horses mentioned below display an affinity for the Fort Erie surface, it's a strong possibility one of them could emerge as the likely winner.

Tiz A Slam is a son of Tiznow, a champion on dirt who won 4 of 5 races at classic distances. The Attfield runner hasn't done much wrong in his eight races and was primed for a huge effort in the Queen's Plate, which he delivered, but ran into a monster of a filly. In his final tune-up for this race on Wednesday, he recorded a sharp 1:00 3/5 breezing workout on the Woodbine dirt training track, a good indicator that he's maintained his terrific form from three weeks ago. A repeat of his last would be more than capable to win this.

Aurora Way has only two lifetime starts, both over the Woodbine polytrack. The gelding was a highly impressive winner in his debut early last month, but was a bit rank in the early stages of the Plate. However, he stayed in contention until the final turn before tiring. It was reported he bled in the race, so he will now add first-time lasix. Look for a much better performance. He recently recorded a sizzling :58 4/5 morning work over the dirt training track at Woodbine. His sire, Giant's Causeway, was a six-time Group One winner on turf in Europe, and narrowly lost his only dirt start in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic. Despite the late start to the races for the Stuart Simon trainee, and the lack of experience against more seasoned rivals, his connections are hoping the talent this one possesses can be the equalizer.

Play:

Tiz A Slam is my top call, and if the morning line odds of 8-5 or higher are offered on the Plate runner-up, I will back him to win. If the desired odds are not there, then I’ll look to Aurora Way, accepting 4-1 odds or better. I’ll also box both runners and play each over State of Honor in exactas.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.