2015 Preakness Stakes: Can the American Pharoah Express Be Halted?

In what will be a much smaller field than what was gathered in Louisville fourteen days ago, the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, with eight 3-year olds vying for a purse of $1.5 million, takes place this Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. The top three Kentucky Derby finishers respectively, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund, are set to contest round two over a distance of 1 3/16 miles, a sixteenth of a mile shorter than what they navigated two weeks ago.

Since losing his first start, American Pharoah has reeled off five consecutive wins, including four Grade 1's and will try to move one step closer to the Triple Crown. In addition to the Derby runner-up and third place finisher, other horses attempting to halt the winning streak include Derby starters, Danzig Moon (5th) and Mr. Z (13th), as well three new faces. Surprisingly, trainer Todd Pletcher will pass on the Preakness. Pletcher, who had five pre-Derby entrants, but three actual contestants, was considering a quartet of horses for the second leg before announcing his decision on Tuesday. Despite the absence of Pletcher, the 2015 Preakness doesn't lack trainer intrigue or drama.

D.Wayne Lukas, trainer of Mr. Z., entered the colt in the race after it was purchased by Calumet Farm from Zayat Stables. Ahmed Zayat, who owns American Pharoah, and who Mr. Z. is named after, had insisted after the Derby that the 13th-place finisher would not participate in Baltimore. So Lukas, by virtue of his long association with Calumet Farm gets his way, but can he get a win? Let's take look at the field in post position order ...

1--AMERICAN PHAROAH/Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert--We knew he was talented and we knew he was fast and by rating nicely off the Derby pace, we now know he isn't just a one-dimensional speed horse. His Derby victory also clearly indicated he can fight it out when the occasion arises, as he revealed courage, toughness and determination through the Churchill stretch to dispatch two rivals, including his stablemate. He answered all questions and put all doubt to rest, while rightfully earning the garland of roses. His one-length margin of victory in Louisville had me wondering just how much he might have won by had he not raced extremely wide. Well, it really doesn't matter, all that counts is he lived up to his billing and proved best against a solid Derby field. Now the current question becomes, can he conquer the Preakness?

2--DORTMUND/Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert--The big chestnut colt entered the Kentucky Derby unbeaten in six starts, but exited the "Run for the Roses" with his first career loss. At Churchill, he went right to the front and attempted to replicate his wire-to-wire performances from the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. All was going well as he cantered along setting moderate fractions without undue pressure, but about 3 furlongs from home Firing Line came calling and the two horses engaged in an tete a tete through the far turn while American Pharoah was winding up directly behind the pair. The energetic encounter inexplicably drained enough starch out the big horse to leave him empty and unable to fend off his dueling rival or his oncoming stablemate/eventual winner. I'd prefer this horse have a target in front of him to run at, rather than be the target. That change in strategy could be the remedy for victory.

3--MR.Z./Corey Nakatani/D.Wayne Lukas--In Louisville, this colt was never able to display his best asset which is speed. He bobbled leaving the gate and then found himself tightly bunched in a pack of horses while being repeatedly checked behind rivals going past the stands the first time and into the first turn. After getting settled, he was positioned in the front-half of the field, but endured a wide journey the rest of the way before dropping out and finishing 13th. Speaking of that number, the Kentucky Derby loss marks the unlucky 13th consecutive time this horse has suffered defeat following a debut victory nearly a year ago. The bright side of that stat is, he managed to wind up in the money eight times. Gets another chance from the "Coach", who has Calumet Farm to thank.

4--DANZIG MOON/Julien Leparoux/Mark Casse--Ended up in 5th-place in the Kentucky Derby, finishing in front of two-thirds of the field. That was a damn good effort from this Canadian-bred colt. He got knocked around from both sides when the pack of rivals he was racing among headed into the first turn. Settled down and had a good trip from there, moving well up the backside and into contention behind the top three rounding the final bend. He chased valiantly through the lane, but tired and was overtaken for the final superfecta spot with a sixteenth-of-a mile remaining. Still targeting Canada's Queen's Plate in early July, so there's plenty of time to have a go here. To make any sort of impact, he'll need a swifter pace than what he saw in Louisville.

5--TALE OF VERVE/Joel Rosario/Dallas Stewart--It took a half-dozen attempts, but this colt finally broke his maiden less that a month ago at Keeneland. The impressive showing at this very same Preakness distance prompted his connections to enter him in the Kentucky Derby, but he did not draw in from the also-eligible list. Despite winning at the distance, this race isn't the next logical spot for him. For these connections, it's all or nothing at all.....And I'm quite certain the latter will prevail.

6--BODHISATTVA/Trevor McCarthy/Jose Corrales--This Cal-bred horse who is Maryland-based, received his initial start over the Pimlico surface last month when he prepped for this event in the Federico Tesio Stakes. It turned out to be a nice effort and a winning race. He led from the start into the stretch where he was briefly headed by an opponent, but fought back and re-rallied to score by 1 1/2-lengths. Has plenty of minor stakes experience, but hasn't been on the graded scene since finishing 5th in last fall's Remsen. Local runner angle is of no advantage and I'm not looking for him to threaten.

7--DIVINING ROD/Javier Castellano/Arnaud Delacour--Participated on the Derby prep trail in Florida and Kentucky this past winter/spring, A few weeks before the Derby, this colt scored a solid 3-length victory in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, but his overall points accumulated left him short of the making the original Top 20. Figuring the horse wouldn't draw into the Run for the Roses because of its placement being far down on the list, connections decided not to wait out the process of defections and late scratches and opted to target this race. Ultimately, he would have ended up with the opportunity to get a berth in the Derby starting gate (He was ahead of Frammento).  Has never been worse than 3rd in five career starts. He comes in fresh, has graded stakes experience, but still needs to raise his game to get the better of the big guns returning from the Derby.

8--FIRING LINE/Gary Stevens/Simon Callaghan--In my HRN Derby preview, I warned readers not to let the six-week time lapse from the Sunland Derby or level of competition he annihilated in that race fool you. He suffered a pair of head losses to Dortmund early on the prep trail, so if you fancied that runner in the Derby, it made practical sense to like and respect this guy. I also stated that I thought the 10-furlong Derby distance could be his nemesis, but he proved me and a whole bunch of others dead wrong. As we say in the horse racing game, "He ran his eyeballs out". Got the better of Dortmund in Louisville, before forcing the eventual Derby winner to work every step of the way through the Churchill stretch. This colt is a fierce competitor, doesn't back down when hooked by an opponent and hasn't finished worse than 2nd in six lifetime races. Expect him to "fire" another good one.

ANALYSIS: I'll keep it simple. Unless there's a surprise reversal of form among the Top 3 from the Derby, they should be a dominant and formidable trio once again. They have a decided class edge over the others and are just plain faster. In the end, the Preakness results could very well mirror that of two weeks ago, or the three runners could interchange positions at the finish line in Maryland. I look for one of them to be the winner. Choosing between the three, I'll side with the horse who offers the best odds at post time.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!