Kentucky Derby 2014: West Coast Rankings 2/25/14

With less than 10 weeks left until the 2014 Kentucky Derby, some of the contenders are starting to become a bit more clear. I ranked my top five Derby hopefuls from the West Coast last month, but with so many moving parts, it's time to update those rankings and see where everyone stands.

These rankings take several things into consideration. At this point, Derby points matter just as much as talent (after all, talent doesn't matter if you can't get into the starting gate!). With that in mind, let's kick off the list.

10) Dance With Fate

Kentucky Derby points: 8 (22^nd)

2014 credentials: 2^nd in El Camino Real Derby

We'll start with the hard-knocking Dance With Fate, who has run second in three graded stakes races (including two Grade 1's). Twice, he ran into synthetic track ace Tamarando, and on another occasion, he ran a sharp race to finish behind Bond Holder in the FrontRunner on dirt. His eight Derby points put him closer to the starting gate than some others in front of him, but one thing to note is that he is not Triple Crown-nominated at this point. He has flashed ample talent, though, and a strong run in a final Derby prep could force the hand of trainer Peter Eurton.

9) California Chrome

Kentucky Derby points: 0

2014 credentials: 1^st in Cal Cup Derby

California Chrome's win on Cal Cup Day was smashing. He crushed Tamarando by nearly six lengths that afternoon, and since then, he's trained superbly at Los Alamitos in preparation for a Derby prep race. The breeding is a question mark, as he isn't exactly bred to love a mile and a quarter, but the three-time stakes winner could answer a lot of questions with another strong performance at next asking.

8) Midnight Hawk

Kentucky Derby points: 12 (T-10^th)

2014 credentials: 1^st in Sham, 3^rd in Robert B. Lewis

If the Kentucky Derby was run today, Midnight Hawk would be guaranteed a spot in the starting gate. Why, then, is he so low on my list? Well, his run in the Lewis just wasn't that great. He sat in a prime stalking position behind a tiring Diamond Bachelor and stablemate Chitu, the latter of whom was going two turns for the first time. He had every chance to go by at the top of the stretch before hanging and being passed by eventual winner Candy Boy. Also, there are some maturity issues here, as he ducked in pretty severely in the stretch of the Sham. Midnight Hawk has talent, but he may not want any part of a mile and a quarter.

7) Chitu

Kentucky Derby points: 4 (T-29th)

2014 credentials: 2^nd in Robert B. Lewis

Chitu surprised me in the Lewis, where he ran a very strong second behind Candy Boy. In his first start around two turns, the Bob Baffert trainee chased a solid early pace, ran between more experienced horses, and didn't wilt when challenged by both the winner and stablemate Midnight Hawk at the top of the stretch. I'm not entirely sure how far he wants to go, given the top (Henny Hughes) and bottom (Sea Gift, by A.P. Indy) of his pedigree clash, but Chitu has talent, and he showed a lot of heart in his last start.

6) Kobe's Back

Kentucky Derby points: 0

2014 credentials: 1^st in San Vicente

Kobe's Back has a lot riding on his next start, but he couldn't have been much more impressive last out in the San Vicente. He made a huge move to win going away, and after chasing Shared Belief twice off a long layoff, John Sadler may have this colt on the right track. There are some distance questions with him, but as a son of Flatter, two turns shouldn't be too much of an issue. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Sadler ships elsewhere for his final Derby prep, given that Santa Anita can be extremely tough on late-running horses.

5) Bayern

Kentucky Derby points: 0

2014 credentials: 1^st in a NW1 allowance

I anticipate this selection drawing criticism from both sides, with some saying Bayern is ranked too high and others saying I'm stiffing him. His allowance win was excellent, and he obviously has tons of talent. However, what's gone unnoticed is that the other early speed horse in the race, Brother Soldier, missed the break completely. Edwin Maldonado tried to rush him to the front and ran into tons of trouble, meaning that Bayern and Gary Stevens were given an uncontested lead. This may not have made the difference between a win and a loss, but would we be talking about Bayern the same way if he'd won by four lengths instead of 15? Probably not.

Bayern has a lot going against him. In addition to the zero Derby points, he's staring the Apollo jinx in the face. No horse has won the Derby without running as a 2-year-old since that one did it in 1881. There's a lot of talent here, but there's also reason to be cautious.

4) Shared Belief

Kentucky Derby points: 0

2014 credentials: None

Speaking of caution, we move to last year's champion 2-year-old male, who has been set back by a foot ailment and has yet to race as a 3-year-old. Jerry Hollendorfer has shipped him to Golden Gate to train, and as a gelding, Shared Belief is not necessarily under pressure to make the Derby. However, if he gets past his problems and starts running like he can, he becomes one of the top 3-year-olds not just on the West Coast, but in the entire country. Because of that, he stays on my list...for now.

3) Tamarando

Kentucky Derby points: 12 (T-10^th)

2014 credentials: 1^st in El Camino Real Derby, 2^nd in Cal Cup Derby

This is where talent and Derby points probably clash the most. On dirt, Tamarando is a solid, unspectacular horse who always closes and gets up for a share. On synthetics, though, Tamarando might be one of the best 3-year-olds in the country. His win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate puts him in the Derby picture, and one more solid prep likely puts him in the starting gate. He's certainly got the right running style to handle 10 furlongs, and it just so happens that two major Derby preps (the Spiral at Turfway Park and the Blue Grass at Keeneland) are contested on artificial surfaces.

2) Bond Holder

Kentucky Derby points: 11 (12^th)

2014 credentials: None

Bond Holder had to scratch from the Risen Star due to injuries sustained while traveling, and he's now being pointed to the Tampa Bay Derby next month. Bond Holder's best races have come on conventional dirt, including a win in the FrontRunner and a fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's bred to love added distance, these connections won the Derby two years ago with I'll Have Another, and he's got a head start on several other horses on this list with 11 Derby points. A good showing by Bond Holder at Tampa Bay Downs likely clinches his spot in the Run for the Roses, and even if he misfires, there's still time for him to squeeze in one more try at more points.

1) Candy Boy

Kentucky Derby points: 10 (T-13^th)

2014 credentials: 1^st in Robert B. Lewis

With his win in the Lewis, Candy Boy moved to the head of the West Coast class. In that victory, he did everything one would want to see a Derby hopeful do. He rated, he pounced when asked by a Hall of Fame rider, he defeated several strong horses, and he galloped out well. My lone concern is Sadler possibly waiting for the Santa Anita Derby, which leaves no room for a back-up plan in case something goes wrong that day. However, with how he ran in the Lewis, Candy Boy is currently my top pick.

Honorable mentions: Hoppertunity (fourth-place finish in the Risen Star wasn't bad, has room to improve off a wide trip), Indianapolis (would have likely been favored in the San Vicente if not for scratching due to a minor hiccup leading up to the race), Kristo (second-place finish in the Sham doesn't look as good after Midnight Hawk's effort in the Lewis)