TimeformUS Friday Pace Projector Play
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In the 4th race at Gulfstream Park on Friday, a $6,250 claiming race on the main track, A Centurian has been established as the 5-2 morning line favorite.
This speedy seven-year-old gelded son of Indian Charlie figures to get bet as he makes his third start after a long layoff (331 days, we do that math for you). Based partly on his stellar career record of 13 wins in 37 starts, bettors figure to forgive him for fading to 7th in his last race, when he was confronted with a pressured pace and attempted to stay a half furlong longer than this 5 1/2 furlong affair.
However, the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a rocky road for A Centurian (#5). Pace Projector predicts the running positions after a quarter mile for sprints, and at the half mile mark for races of one mile or more. In races in which it projects an extreme pace scenario, we use the labels “Favors Horse On/Near Early Lead,” or “Fast Pace.” It’s a great tool with which to quickly identify horses whose chances may be compromised by the pace. When those horses are among the likely betting favorites, the situation often presents a good betting opportunity.
Pace Projector suggests that A Centurian will face speed to his inside from Ynot Gray Boy (#1, 15-1) and to his outside from Quiz Whiz (#6, 6-1). The latter is a suspicious looking drop down coming off a long layoff after stumbling at the start of his last race, but who showed high speed on the turf the last time he returned after significant time off.
And if either of those potential early challengers falters, Pace Projector shows two other speedy types, Bidham (#2) and Blings Express (#7), in close pursuit. This could lead to a pace meltdown.
Who are the candidates to pick up the pieces? J J's Lucky Train (4-1) has faced better than these, as indicated by his race ratings (highlighted in blue below), relative to today's race, which is assigned an 88. He had trouble at the start of his last, and seems to be rounding into form as he seeks his level after a long layoff. Trainer Jason Servis has had success employing the services of jockey Kendrick Carmouche. (Our trainer and trainer/jockey ratings are on a 100 pt scale.)
Drinks to Go (#10, 6-1) was also troubled at the start of his last, has competitive speed figures for this field, and usually fires at this distance.
To see these and the rest of the contenders, purchase TimeformUS PPs for Friday's Gulfstream card for $3, or get daily unlimited access for just $5.99. Those of you who have never purchased TimeformUS past performances, get three days of unlimited access for just $2.99.
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