Analysis: Sueno gets the nod in Keeneland's Lexington Stakes

And that's what I'll do here. Read on for more, with a suggested play once we get through the field.

#4 Anothertwistafate (2-1) is coming off a neck loss in the Sunland Derby (G3) and looking to qualify here for the Kentucky Derby. Last time he had some trouble, or he would have won the race. Gets a major rider upgrade to Javier Castellano and should get back to showing his quick speed from the gate. Coming into this race with a bullet work over the Sunland dirt and is the one to beat. 

#3 Sueno (5-1) is the pick. He looks to get a great trip Saturday behind the main three speeds. He was much closer to the pace last time out in the Louisiana Derby (G3). This horse is another that needs a win to have any chance to get in the Derby. Corey Lanerie is back in the irons, so look for a ground-saving trip on the rail.

#10 Roiland (15-1) needs some pace to upset this race, but there does look to be plenty of that signed on. Has been facing much better horses than these in the Fair Grounds preps all winter. His best races have come at this distance. 

#1 Shang (10-1) has crushed state-bred company in his last four races in Louisiana and now faces open company. I think this horse could make some noise if he can sit a good trip behind the speed. His numbers give him a chance. Upset possibility?

#2 Hawaiian Nosises (10-1) has won three straight races. Wesley Ward always points to this meet, but the horse has to improve. Does have a win over the track. Will use underneath.

#5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) won the Holy Bull (G2) two back, but that race just fell apart. He has not run a race other than that giving him a chance here. Over-bet closer.

#6 Chase the Ghost (30-1) has to improve big time, but trainer Dallas Stewart did win the Ashland (G1) with a 52-1 shot last weekend. Still, toss. 

#7 Knicks Go (15-1) has a lot of speed from the gate, but has tailed off in form since a big run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and win in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) here at Keeneland. Toss. 

#8 Owendale (12-1) tried the Risen Star last time and was a no show. His best race came over a track with some rain in it. If you toss his last, he could be a logical underneath horse. 

#9 Zenden (6-1) is a Florida shipper with speed. Ran a good fourth to Tacitus last time out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) but needs to clear the other speeds to win. Toss. 

#3 to win

Exacta 3 / 2, 4, 10