March's Kentucky Derby 2018 preps strong likely indicators

March's round of 2018 Kentucky Derby preps provides a mix of horses making their final starts before the first Saturday in May, plus others who will go again in April. With that in mind, we likely saw the eventual Derby winner run at some point last month. Here's what history says his chances are heading to Churchill Downs.

Gotham Stakes

The History: Gotham winners often don’t perform well in the Kentucky Derby. In recent years, horses such as J Boys Echo, El Kabeir, and Vyjack have won the Gotham Stakes but failed to either make the starting gate or finish near the board at Churchill. Vyjack went on to be a nice miler on both dirt and turf, but that is not the target for these horses following a win in this race.

This Year: Enticed is looking at one more prep before heading to Louisville. The son of Medaglia d'Oro looks impressive, but he backed up to the one-turn mile in taking this race. Enticed needs to pack a real punch in the Wood Memorial to be taken seriously.

San Felipe Stakes

The History: This race has been more telling in recent years. Since 2008, it was produced Pioneerof the Nile (2009, 2nd in the Derby), Creative Cause (2012, 5th in the Derby), California Chrome (2014, 1st in the Derby) and Dortmund (2015, 3rd in the Derby).

This Year: a controversial disqualification of McKinzie led to Bolt d’Oro being awarded the win. The San Felipe winner often goes on to the Santa Anita Derby, the path for Bolt d'Oro, whose owner and trainer, Mick Ruis, says the horse will be cranked higher Saturday.

Tampa Bay Derby

The History: A popular prep in recent years, with horses such as Tapwrit (2017 Belmont winner), Destin, and Carpe Diem having won it. From there, some run again, while others have trained up to the Kentucky Derby. A Tampa Bay Derby winner last won on the first Saturday in May in 2007 with Street Sense, who also ran in the Blue Grass Stakes.

This Year: Quip won this year's edition in a mild upset and, as with Street Sense, is on to Keeneland. Does he need to win? No. Street Sense finished second to Dominican. Does he need to hit the board and/or have an impressive run? For sure.

Rebel Stakes

The History: The race has been a huge indicator of bigger things to come for 3-year-old colts.  Previous winners include American Pharoah (2015 winner,  Triple Crown winner), Will Take Charge (2013 Champion Three-Year-Old) and Lookin At Lucky (2010 Champion Three-Year-Old, Preakness winner)? The Rebel often leads to the Arkansas Derby, of course, also at Oaklawn Park.

This Year: This year, we saw Magnum Moon take his stakes debut in stride. Magnum Moon is being pointed to the Arkansas Derby, where he is looking to go 4-for-4. He needs to have an impressive run to be a contender in Louisville. Also, he has the curse of Apollo on his back. Can he buck it?

Jeff Ruby Steaks

The History: Turfway Park's prep, run on synthetic, was downgraded this year in terms of points awarded. Going back to 2011, it did produce Animal Kingdom. Plus, more recent winners such as Fast and Accurate (2017) and Oscar Nominated (2016) have gone on to be nice turf horses. Their form was able to transfer to the synthetic track at Turfway Park.

This Year: Blended Citizen won this year's race in impressive fashion. Trainer Doug O’Neill is prepping the colt for the Blue Grass Stakes during Keeneland’s opening weekend. He needs not just to run well, but to earn more points, for a trip to Louisville.

The Louisiana Derby

The History: This hasn’t typically served as Kentucky Derby prep that produces a winner the first Saturday in May, but rather the type of horse that goes on to win later. Take, for example, the last two winners. Girvin (2017) went on to win the Grade 1 Haskell. And you know the story of Gun Runner (2016).

This Year: Noble Indy used the Louisiana Derby as his final prep for the Kentucky Derby, bouncing back from defeat in the Risen Star (G2). The colt re-rallied to win at 1 1/8 miles, indicating he could be competitive in Louisville from the loaded Todd Pletcher barn.

Sunland Derby

The History: The race, with just two notable exceptions, hasn't meant much on Kentucky Derby Day. Mine That Bird didn't win the Sunland Derby but went on to strike at 50-1 in 2009. And the other one to mention, of course, is 2015 Derby runner-up Firing Line.

This Year: Winner Runaway Ghost (Ghostzapper) will attempt to go against history. But his Beyer Speed Figure for the win is lowest among the big preps so far. My opinion? Look elsewhere.

UAE Derby

The History: The UAE Derby is an international race that has been producing Kentucky Derby runners for a while, but with no luck on the first Saturday in May. Last year, Thunder Snow turned the break into a rodeo. Master of Hounds' fifth-place effort in 2011 remains the best effort from a UAE Derby graduate.

This Year: Mendelssohn produced what could well be the most impressive performance thus far on the Kentucky Derby trail. He won the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths and clipped a full 1.33 seconds off the previous track record. Could he be the best international chance for a Kentucky Derby win? My answer is yes.

Florida Derby

The History: The most telling of the March prep races in recent years, the Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners: Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and Orb. The race was also won by Big Brown in 2008.

This Year: Audible on Saturday once again dominated the competition and stamped himself a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby. He won two big races in big ways, this time coming from off the pace, and looks like a huge threat for the Kentucky Derby. History suggests he is, too.