Kentucky Derby preps in January unlikely indicators of contenders

The 2018 Kentucky Derby is three and half months away, and the time is now to start tabbing potential starters for the first Saturday in May. Historically, which preps are the most important? And which are not so important? I have an answer for that, the January preps.

These preps include the Jerome (Aqueduct), the Sham (Santa Anita), the Smarty Jones (Oaklawn) and the Lecomte (Fair Grounds). Going back to 2008, let’s look at some winners and their Derby chances.

The Jerome was not always a Kentucky Derby prep. As recently as 2008-2009, the race was run in October for 3-year-olds, and in 2010 it wasn't run at all. In 2011, the New York Racing Association brought it back. Two years later, in 2013, a Jerome winner made it to the Derby starting gate. Actually, 2013 has been the only year since the race became a Derby prep that a horse exited the Jerome and entered the Derby. In 2013, Vyjack won the Jerome, followed the New York path to Kentucky and then crossed the wire 18th on a sloppy track. Vyjack went on to be a consistent miler on both dirt and turf and is a multiple graded stakes winner.

Run last Saturday, the Sham Stakes showed a promising young colt winning in impressive fashion. McKinzie looks like a legitimate runner, but his chances of winning the Derby based on past Sham Stakes results is not so promising. Since 2007, five runners from the Sham have gone on to start in the Derby. The best finish from a Sham winner or participant was ninth, achieved by Gormley in 2017. However, horses who exited the Sham had nice careers, including the 2013 winner Goldencents and 2016 winner Collected, a 5-year-old still running at the highest level.

Favorites tend not to win the Smarty Jones. Since 2008, the average win payoff has been $12.74. The largest payout since 2008 was $26.20, when Will Take Charge won. Will Take Charge went on to finish eighth in the 2013 Kentucky Derby, but developed enough to be named the Champion Three-Year-Old Male. In the last 10 years, only four horses from the Smarty Jones went on to race in the Derby. The last horse to win the Smarty Jones and then start in the Derby was Far Right, in 2015.

The Lecomte has produced some quality racehorses, and in the last 10 years, eight horses have started in the Louisiana prep and ended up in the Derby. The best finish by a LeComte winner or participant was Golden Soul, second in the 2013 Derby at odds of 34.5-1. Horses to compete in the Lecome have proven to be of quality, with its winning graduates Ron the Greek (2010), Oxbow (2013), International Star (2015) and Destin (2016). The Lecomte is also not a race for favorites. The average win payoff is $10.46, and the largest payout was $20.40 when International Star won the race. 

The January preps are predictors of those who will compete on their specific circuits leading up to May, but traditionally they have not produced a winner. Wait until later in the spring to make your early pick.