Pump the brakes on Accelerate's Breeders Cup Classic chances

Accelerate has developed into the absolute leader of the older male division this year on the West Coast, no longer chasing the likes of Arrogate, who he interestingly debuted with back in April of 2016.

The son of Lookin at Lucky has won four of his five starts this year, three being Grade 1 events at 1 1/4 miles, and his most recent victory in Saturday's Pacific Classic resulted in a record margin of victory: 12 1/2 lengths.

Of course, the year-end goal now for Accelerate is the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race he has never contested. In both 2016 and 2017, he ran in the Dirt Mile. He finished third in 2016 behind Tamarkuz and Gun Runner. In 2017, he was ninth.

With the dominance he displayed in the Pacific Classic, Accelerate is among the top early Classic choices, with New York-bred Diversify another to consider from the East Coast. But I'm suggesting Accelerate is more vulnerable in that spot than many think.

The Breeders' Cup is at Churchill Downs, and Accelerate has only shipped outside of California once in three seasons, when he finished second to City of Light in this year's Oaklawn Handicap (G2) going 1 1/8 miles. The 5-year-old won't leave California until Breeders' Cup time with his final start before then scheduled to be Santa Anita's Grade 1 Awesome Again on Sept. 29. 

In addition to Accelerate's iffy record outside of California, trainer John Sadler overall has not had success leaving his home base. Brisnet's Ed DeRosa surfaced a few stats pertaining to that this week, illustrating that Sadler is 3-fo-38 lifetime at Churchill and 0-for-41 in Breeders' Cup races.

It was a natural question to ask of the conditioner after the Pacific Classic. According to the Los Angeles Times, Sadler said, “The Santa Anita horses run well at Churchill, and the thing we [feel good about] going to go back there in November … is that he won the Big ‘Cap on a muddy track.

"So, I think in November at Churchill you’ve got about a 50-50 chance of getting weather. So, I think the fact he handles an off track so good, I’m not worried about that."

Having faced some small fields on the West Coast, Accelerate will receive a new sort of class test in this year's Breeders' Cup. He seems to be getting better with age, and the addition of blinkers late in his career resulted in a different looking horse. But is that all enough to buck some significant history? We'll find out Nov. 3.