Saratoga 2016: Opening Weekend Analysis

There are an ample amount of races I am looking forward to seeing this weekend, but two I am particularly excited about. The most obvious would of course be the Coaching Club American Oaks, July 24 featuring Songbird and Carina Mia.

I also always look forward to the Sanford Stakes which will take place on July 23.  It’s an early test for two-year-olds, and I like to see how the horses I have been following do, and if they can hold their form into their three year old year. It’s a small field, but certainly isn’t lacking any talent.

Another race full of talent is the Diana Stakes which features last year’s winner Dacita who defeated the super mare Tepin. It’s shaping up to be a deep field and I am eager to be there for this race once again.

The Sanford Stakes, Gr. 2 

Bitumen, a colt by Mineshaft looked very promising in his maiden win at Churchill Downs, June 30. He stalked the pace very closely the whole race eager to pounce and get in front. He drew away at the top of the stretch and easily outran his competitors to win by 6 ¾ lengths. Bitumen seems to have a good head on his shoulders and should adapt to any pace scenario that might set up, and run well. He put in his first work over the Saratoga track Sunday breezing four furlongs in :48.54.  He’s by Mineshaft, who won four grade one races in his career stretching up to a mile and a quarter in distance. Mineshaft sired this year’s Kentucky Derby starter Suddenbreakingnews; it is clear that talent and stamina comes along in Bitumen’s pedigree.

Bronson is one of the colts I am really looking forward to seeing develop. By Medaglia D’Oro, his potential is sky high. He’s in some of the greatest hands in racing in Todd Pletcher, and he is bred very well; both his dam and sire are stakes winners.  He broke his maiden on June 18 at Monmouth Park, going five furlongs. He is still figuring everything out, but was impressive as he drew away late to win. He also put in a work over the Saratoga track going four furlongs in :49.43. He has not faced the competition that everyone else in the field has raced against, but it’s hard to knock a Todd Pletcher colt.

Random Walk broke his maiden at Belmont on June 3. He has one of the hottest jockeys on him in Jose Ortiz and they look to be a dangerous team. Random Walk looked a little green when he broke from the gate and had to be pushed forward. He looks like he is a front runner and will most likely set the pace on Saturday. He showed his speed and talent to set fast fractions and still win by 5 ¾ lengths. He also earned a very respectable 90 Beyer speed figure. By a Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver, he has the breeding to go on to do big things. Super Saver is also the sire of the brilliantly fast sprinter Runhappy. Super Saver has proved to be one of the top sires of two-year-olds. He has had many winners beyond Runhappy, such as Competitive Edge and Embellish the Lace who won the Alabama Stakes. A lot of his runners do mature late and bloom as three-year-olds; I think such is the case with Random Walk. With more time and maturation, I believe he will peak as a three-year-old.

Zartera, a speedy Steve Asmussen trainee, broke his maiden on June 16. He showed a lot of early speed, and shall he run Saturday, I think he will go to the front with Random Walk and set a very honest and sharp pace. He’s already at Saratoga and has worked over the surface. Steve Asmussen always has some good youngsters, and I do not think Zartera is an exception. Zartera is bred the part, he is by Tapizar who is by the almighty Tapit. Tapizar won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile back in 2012, so he certainly has the potential to pass off some talent and speed. Tapizar has two other up and coming stars in Tip Tap Tapizar and Thurman Merman. I think Zartera would do well at the distance in the Sanford Stakes this weekend. He is definitely a horse to consider in your bets.

Bay Numbers broke his maiden the second time out at Monmouth July 9. It was over a muddy track, so it’s hard to say how good the win was, especially because it wasn’t a lightning fast time nor was the rest of the field overly impressive. I am not putting the horse down, I just think he might need a little more time than to withstand a race against Saratoga’s best two-year-olds. He will definitely need to be on top of his game this weekend.

The Coaching Club American Oaks, Gr. 1

Songbird is the obvious favorite. I see a lot of attention has been given to her only traveling outside of California once. While that is true, she did it very well. She ran a spectacular race in the Breeders' Cup and clearly traveling did not impair her running. Songbird has never had to run to her full potential, she has been geared down in the final stages of her previous races. Any horse can be beat, but it does not appear Songbird will tarnish her unbeaten record anytime soon. Her last workout was a bullet at Del Mar breezing six furlongs in 1:11.40. She is extremely fit and looking very sharp for this weekend’s race. Songbird will certainly have to work harder on Sunday than she ever has before, as she faces the very talented Carina Mia, who is training fantastic, and the deep dirt can be tiring. Nonetheless, I am very confidently choosing Songbird to win. Her tactical speed and talent should easily carry her to the winners circle.

Carina Mia is undoubtedly the second choice. She has been training over the Saratoga track since May. She definitely has an advantage. Her last workout was also a bullet breezing five furlongs in a speedy :59.22. She is stronger than ever and definitely peaking at the right time. In her last race it seems like she has learned to rate a little more and relax through the race better than she did when she was beaten in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. She is developing into an amazing filly. This will be the longest distance she has ever run, but she is indeed up for the task. I expect a tremendous effort, it’s going to be a great race.

Flora Dora is definitely the longshot of the field. She has been training at Saratoga, so she has that on her side. She has not fared well against graded stakes competition. Before finishing a solid second in an allowance race, she was ninth in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes. She’s a nice filly, but I think she is in way over her head. She belongs in a Grade three race where she could show her potential, or maybe even of the turf, as her last workout over the turf was definitely a step up.

Weep no More has beaten Carina Mia. Weep no More took her down in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, as previously mentioned; but was unsuccessful in her last start in the Kentucky Oaks. In her defense, she did not have the greatest ride. She hit the rail a few times and lacked a bid in the final stretch. She settles nicely, and on Sunday I think she will sit comfortably behind the leaders and put in a late run.  She is a very talented horse who is flying under the radar with a solid chance to do very well on Sunday. I think with the time off, and a small field, she will put in a great effort.

Mo d’Amour is trained by Todd Pletcher, she’s coming into the race as best she can. She hasn’t won a race since February, but she definitely is experienced on tackling good competition. She's by Uncle Mo who has produced numerous stakes winners this year and makes her even more likeable. He is dominating with his crop. She puts in solid efforts and her connections do not take the easy route. She was a most recent fourth in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont against a very talented field. She put in a strong run, just simply was not the best that day. I think a hot pace would let her settle in well, and make a determined bid at the top of the stretch.