Kentucky Derby 2017: Five Longshots Not to be Overlooked
State Of Honor (30-1) - This front running colt is likely to be close to the lead at the break in Kentucky Derby 2017, especially being outside speed horses Fast and Accurate and Always Dreaming. He has a high cruising speed and could potentially put the pressure on Always Dreaming. He’s been training wonderful and consistently at Churchill Downs. His gallops look strong, and like he is ready to run all day. His attitude has been calm and collected, which will help with the craziness of Kentucky Derby day. He’s been consistent in all the big dances, second in the Florida Derby beating Gunnevera, he was second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Tapwrit, and third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes behind McCraken and Tapwrit. He certainly has a shot to at least hit the board.
Hence (15-1) - Hence is a colt that’s been getting a lot of attention. This Street Boss colt won the Sunland Derby, which actually proved to be a great race. He beat Irap, winner of the Bluegrass Stakes, who went on to defeat one of the current Kentucky Derby favorites McCraken, and Hence also defeated Conquest Mo Money, who was runner up to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. Hence has been training like a powerhouse at Churchill Downs. The forecast is calling for rain on Saturday; good thing Hence broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. It could be foolish not to bet this colt.
Sonneteer (50-1) Calumet Farm’s homebred would certainly make you the most money, should he perform well, and while it is unlikely he will win, he definitely has a shot to hit the board. As a horse who’s yet to win a race in all ten starts, Sonneteer could seem like a careless bet. He was second in the Rebel Stakes, and most recently ran impressively in the Arkansas Derby finishing fourth, gaining on the leaders with each stride. I think he will appreciate the distance of the Kentucky Derby. He’s training well at Churchill Downs, posting a bullet workout May 1st, breezing four furlongs in 47 seconds. Sonneteer looks like a million bucks.
Lookin At Lee (20-1) Post position one is the dreaded post, but lucky for Lookin At Lee, this post shouldn’t bother him much. He is not a speed horse, so he can let the horses to his outside rally for position while he settles in towards the back of the pack. He’s been a consistent horse on the Kentucky Derby trail, showing up to all the big dances. His most notable finish as a two year old was a second in the Claiborne Breeder’s Futurity behind Classic Empire, and recently third in the Arkansas Derby, also behind Classic Empire. If you have not watched this race, it is essential to do so. Lookin At Lee was weaving in and out trying to find a hole to go through in the traffic. He was coming with a strong late run. If it rains Saturday, he should adapt well. He has ran in the slop once in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, to finish second behind Not This Time. Lookin At Lee has been training great, and everything he does suggests he wants a mile and a quarter. His trainer Steve Asmussen is confident that the added distance will help Lookin At Lee’s come from behind running style. Don’t count this colt out.
Irap (20-1) It’s hard to believe the Bluegrass Stakes winner is likely to go off as a longshot, but that just makes him more tempting to bet on. Irap looks like he has flourished since the Blue Grass Stakes. He is big and mature; his coat is the picture of health. His trainer Doug O’Neill certainly knows how to get a horse to perform on Kentucky Derby Day. He won it last year with Nyquist, and in 2012, with I’ll Have Another. It really shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to finally see Irap step up and win the Blue Grass. He had run well in stakes company, and I think he is peaking at the right time. His most recent work was a mile in 1:44.20 at Keeneland. It’s safe to say O’Neill has him fit and ready for the challenge. Irap also has experience over a sloppy track. He finished fourth in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita on a sloppy track as a two year old. Irap has a great pedigree for classic distances; as a son of Tiznow, he should appreciate the mile and a quarter.