Who will be the American Beauty? Seven vie at Oaklawn Park
We'll all have some pent-up Oaklawn Park excitement to shake off this morning, as racing was canceled Friday because of poor conditions. We weren't lucky enough to get any snow in the Northwest corner of Arkansas, but Hot Springs got a pretty good blanket. In photos, the track looked like a mess. Not a mess like east coast tracks on Friday, but a mess.
The track crew was working all night to make sure racing will go on as scheduled Saturday. The forecast is chilly and the sun will be out by first post, so keep changing track conditions in mind.
Trainer Ingrid Mason won last weekend's feature for fillies with 3-year-old Marquee Miss in the Dixie Belle. It was a decisive victory, as she bested the favorite, Durango, by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 17-to-1. There's no reason to think Mason can't do the same with Saturday's American Beauty, a 6 furlong race for fillies 4 years old and up. Post time is approximately 4:38 p.m. Central. The $100,000 stakes drew a field of seven.
Mason's entrant, Sarah Sis, put together an excellent season in 2015 with four wins, including the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks. In her finale, she nailed the Grade 2 Raven Run at, coincidentally, odds of 17-to-1. With early speed and a great kick, her chances are good, but it's also a competitive field.
There are two returning runners from last year's American Beauty: Haveyougoneaway and Spring Included. Both ran at astronomical odds last year, in part because the winner, Sugar Shock, soaked up all the money.
Last year's American Beauty was the last time you could get long odds on Spring Included, and she was a half-length from a perfect three-race record last season at Oaklawn. However, she didn't end 2015 in her best form.
Haveyougoneaway is a mare I really like. We watched her win the Flashy Lady 50K on a trip to Remington Park in late September. She ran well at Oaklawn last year. She's the top pick on the form I use (Brisnet). She may very well be my pick at post time, but I'll be watching odds to decide whether to bet at all. Kyle Cook pipes up: She's his pick. He did go with winner Discreetness in the Smarty Jones on Monday, so take heed.
A lot of speed here, including Super Saks, who wowed in her maiden win at Oaklawn last January. She's coming off two wins at Churchill Downs. Much to like.
Mechell wins when her closing kick is at its best. She won at the same conditions in her last race in October.
Swing It Dish would surprise me more, as she seems a step below this group. However, Trainer Jack Van Berg and jockey Alex Birzer sprung some surprises last weekend.
Donita's Ruler has a curious record that I can't quite puzzle out. Inconsistent might be the key word. But she has early speed and, in my book, any mare with early speed can contend.
I've been apprised that the first two weeks at Oaklawn is the best time to look for longshots (Marquee Miss is a case in point), so look away. The long-odds-fest seems to settle out after that, so says commenter travel_vic on a previous post. This amateur is all ears.
Other notes for Saturday:
I'll be tuning in late in the afternoon, first to see Bold Conquest in the sixth race, an Optional Claiming $35K for 4-year-olds and up run at 1 16th miles. Bold Conquest was my pick in the 2015 Southwest Stakes (he ran third) and I've had a soft spot him ever since. He's hasn't rewarded this devotion much, but I'm nothing if not loyal. He didn't quite make it on the derby trail, but I was still surprised to see him in this spot so soon.
Also, after the feature, there's a Maiden $68K for 3-year-olds and up in Race 9, although these are all 4 years old and up. I just have a thing about following them from their first win. Will handicap this one later.