Toews, Baffert and Bobblehorses at Oaklawn Park
The news release announcing the field of the Smarty Jones came over from Oaklawn Park on Sunday evening. The headline: “Derby Dreams Start Monday with Smarty Jones Stakes.” The race's purse is $150,000, and it is worth 17 Kentucky Derby points, with 10 points going to the winner. That means the winner would vault into the points top-10, according to the standings posted by Churchill Downs. A win would put Toews on Ice, the only Smarty Jones runner with points already (4), into the top 5.
It's early yet, but it does seem like the Smarty Jones has potential to be the beginning of the story for a 2016 Kentucky Derby contender. Will Take Charge, the 2013 Smarty Jones winner, finished highest with an eighth place showing in the Kentucky Derby. Of course no one faults him that since he went on to a campaign in which he became Champion 3-year-old Male.
The big news last week was the confirmation that Bob Baffert-trained Toews on Ice would be shipped to Arkansas. He's been made the 9/5 morning line favorite, and with good reason. He has the strongest resume of the field and he's trained by Baffert.
Baffert is of course notorious for his stellar record in Oaklawn Park's 3-year-old stakes series. Don't ask me to cite the statistics; when he ships in, his horses win. I've heard longtime Oaklawn Park fans groan, “Oh, not Baffert!” It makes handicapping seem beside the point. You try to beat Baffert's horse, who's always the favorite, but if you can't, you can't.
Maybe this sentiment was worst in 2012 when the Southwest was split into two divisions and Baffert shipped in two horses — and won both divisions, with Secret Circle and Castaway. But it's hard to hold onto hard feelings when Baffert obviously ships us his best. Because of Baffert's decision to ship in American Pharoah for the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby in 2015, Oaklawn Park became a player in Triple Crown history.
So is this a time to try to beat Baffert's horse or go along with him? Toews on Ice already has a win in a Grade 3 and place in a Grade 1 to his credit. In his two other ungraded victories, he won by 4 ½ and 7 ½ lengths. He seems to be a fast and improving horse.
Can any of the other dreamers factor?
Luna de Loco. Won his 60K debut, always a good sign, at Aqueduct. He was flattered when Rally Cry, third in the key race, won a 50K maiden at Gulfstream a week later.
Discreetness. Has some buzz as the winner of the Springboard Mile at Remington. And he's been around some, making him the best of other horses with two-turn experience. Bullet work Jan. 7.
Black Ops. Huge improvement from race 1 to 2, but he's coming in off a maiden win. He was flattered when My Chennai Express won in a Maiden 68K at Oaklawn on Friday.
Synchrony. I loved his mom, Brownie Points, even betting her against Zenyatta in the 2008 Apple Blossom. Improving figures. I suspect he faced tougher competition at Churchill, but I can't back that up. This is the one I'm really rooting for, must admit.
Gray Sky. Also coming in off a maiden win it took him five tries to get. He was sort-of flattered with a game 2nd-place finish by Entertainer in a 68K Maiden at Oaklawn on Saturday. I do keep coming back to Gray Sky.
Shogood. Winner of a Grade 3 at Arlington Park in August. He'd have to be forgiven his last start in November where he was “through after ¾.” Sporting a bullet work.
Force It. If he hadn't tanked in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he'd just look like a colt on the improve. But he did. Can you put a line through it?
Knights Key. Won his debut at Churchill. Why do I hear so much about Knights Key?
My boring conclusion is, I don't see any of these horses beating Toews on Ice. Discreetness probably has the best shot at him. And I am very keen to see the runs of Synchrony, Black Ops and Gray Sky.
I'll be at work today, but my husband has the day off, so he's Oaklawn bound to grab us an American Pharaoh bobble horse. Good luck getting one of those, in person or on eBay. And let the dreaming officially begin.
Next up: Opening weekend post-scripts.