Sprinting for Cotton
I haven't been this excited about a running of the King Cotton since Riley Tucker won this race in 2012. He was a sentimental pick and a big pay for me.
Post time for this Saturday's 6-furlong $100K King Cotton is set for 4:38 p.m. Central.
I feel like I'm a step ahead on handicapping by benefit of having seen two in this group in an Optional Claiming 50K on Jan. 15, opening day at Oaklawn Park, and three others in the Perryville $100K on Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
In the 1, 2 and 3 posts, it's a rematch of the Perryville's top three finishers, respectively, Hebbronville, Bayerd and Lewys Vaporizer. My final pick in the Perryville was Lewys Vaporizer, although I'd made a case for Hebbronville on a group bet that was being put together. Hebbronville got a ground-saving trip and a made a great move up the rail to win that day in a blanket finish. The three were the top finishers again in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley on Nov. 23, with the finish Lewys Vaporizer-Bayerd-Hebbronville. Trading off.
Oaklawn Notes note that Bayerd and Hebbronville have met in eight races over the past year, with Bayerd having the better record.
In the 4 and 6 posts, W.B. Smudge and Alsvid ran 2-3 in the opening day race to longshot wire-to-wire winner Subtle Indian, also in a blanket finish. Alsvid, who was my top pick, got caught up in traffic, and as a result needed the extra ½-furlong he'll get on Saturday.
There are two other star sprinters joining the race, Ivan Fallunovalot, post 5, and Gentlemen's Bet, post 8. Ivan hasn't raced since he was outmatched in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Keeneland on Oct. 31. He's had two bullet works at Oaklawn, including a blazing one Jan. 23, which would appear to indicate he's fit and ready. He's the class of the field, last year's winner of the King Cotton, and likely favorite.
Trainer Ron Moquett had said he would skip the King Cotton with Gentlemen's Bet, but changed his mind after GB got in steady works and his ownership showed a preference for the race, according to Oaklawn Notes. So that's interesting. He comes off a win through a disqualification in the $350K Frank J. Francis Memorial Dash on Nov. 14 at Laurel Park, when he recovered after having to check in traffic.
Rounding out the 8-horse field, in post 7, is Creative Art. He certainly will be at the longest odds, but he's got some speed, put together a good record in 2015 and comes off a win in December.
Very competitive field and a tough race to call.
Of the 1-3 posts, I still see Lewys Vaporizer as the best choice. But he would likely have to wire the field and that's a tall order. Maybe with all of the speed here, Bayerd's late close fits better.
Ivan Fallunovalot, Alsvid and Gentlemen's Bet are Oaklawn Park's top sprinters of 2015 and any of them could win this. I would favor Ivan and Alsvid here, but just barely. If Gentlemen's Bet steps slow anywhere, then Lewys Vaporizer holds on to hit the board. That's my best guess.
I like to find some stories while I'm studying a race. How about this one: Alsvid, a 7-year-old gelding, has placed second in the last three runnings of the King Cotton. True, he turned the tables and won the pricier $400K Count Fleet Sprint at Oaklawn last April, but he'd placed in that one the year before, too. It would be kind of cool to see him check the win box this time.