Opening Day Pick 3: Bring Home the Baconista!
Ahhhh, it's finally time for the Fifth Season to begin.
Oaklawn Park's 2016 meeting gets underway Friday with an opening day card that includes a Maiden 68K for 3-year-olds and an Optional Claiming 50K for 4-year-olds-and-up that is chock full of classy sprinters. Those two fall before the feature race, the $100,000 Dixie Belle for 3-year-old fillies, making it a great time for my favorite bet: the Pick 3.
I would probably try to check out the rest of the card, too, if I were going to be there opening day. But I'll be in the salt mines at my regular gig and probably just get to watch the Dixie Belle on my iPhone. Can I get some tiny violins?
Oaklawn has raised purses numerous times over the past several years, owing to the tremendous success of its on-site casino. Where the purse increase is most interesting for me is in the higher maiden ranks, because we're bound to be seeing some of the stars of tomorrow. $68-grand is a big purse to split for promising youngsters making their first start as 3-year-olds.
Friday's 68K Maiden race is for 3-year-olds at a 1 1/16th miles. The sires represented in Race 6 include a handful with the highest fees: Arch, Uncle Mo, Street Sense, Malibu Moon, and Curlin. The ones that interest me in this race are:
Burntwood (by Arch). Decent speed figure in his debut, when he was fifth in a maiden 55K at Churchill Downs behind winner Gray Sky, who's likely to be part of the Smarty Jones field on Monday. Has not been two turns.
Dohat Dance (by Louis Quatorze). He's failed to break his maiden in five tries, but he has improving speed figures and his competition at Churchill included Brody's Cause and Conquest Big E, both seen two back in the Breeders Cup juvenile. Was soundly beaten by My Chennai Xpress in his last.
Rarin to Go (by Hold Me Back), a firster. Oh, why not? His unraced dam has two stakes winners from two starters. Respectable works, too. Wouldn't hurt to see how he looks in the paddock, but that's not an option for me.
Scissors and Tape (by Curlin). His sire's white hot. Decent speed figure in his debut, and blinkers added may get pokey a little more speed out of the gate. He can close, for sure.
My Chennai Xpress (by Hold me Back). One with improving speed figures who was third to Conquest Big E at Churchill after setting the pace. Highest speed figure and has strictly two-turn experience. Lost to Black Ops, who's likely for the Smarty Jones.
Admiral Shepard (by Malibu Moon), shipping in after a 3rd in his debut, a Maiden 60K at Aqueduct. Decent speed figure. Top pick.
That Makes Sense (by Street Sense). It's Calvin Borel riding the baby of his first Kentucky Derby winner. He didn't run much in his 55K maiden debut at Churchill, but he's been working well at Oaklawn. Maybe, like Calvin, he likes it here. He sold for $550,000 as a yearling, so let's hope he finds some giddy-up.
The good news is that there were a couple of horses I either didn't like or couldn't think of anything to say about.
Race 7, the Optional Claiming 50K features a couple of sprinters seen two-back on Breeders Cup day at Keeneland. Lots to like here in a competitive field going 5 1/2 furlongs.
I Got It All. Lightly raced for a gelding, with four starts in 2015. His works look decent. He was third in his last at Oaklawn vs. Golden Lad and Curlin in the 2015 Essex. This speaks to me. Also a cut back.
Bobcat Jim. Drop-in-class shipper has hit the board in all of his Oaklawn starts.
Alsvid. He owned Oaklawn sprints by the end of last season and you can forgive his Breeders Cup sprint performance, as he was outclassed. Still, he's a millionaire.
WB Smudge. Will second-itis continue?
Brewing. “Set suicidal fractions” last out is enough for me to cross a line through that race. Two back, he looked great. Chance for a price on Brewing? He stole my heart in his 2014 season.
Cinco Charlie. Top speed figure, stellar record and second by a nose in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont. Top pick.
One of my favorite horses of Oaklawn's 2015 season was Promise Me Silver, who won last year's Dixie Belle to kick off a four-race streak that ended with a win in the Grade 3 Eight Belles at Churchill. (She's had it rough toward the end of 2015, however.) Coming in second was Sarah Sis, whose last race was a big win in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland.
In other words, the 6-furlong Dixie Belle is a relevant proving ground. Those I find interesting in Race 8 are:
Durango. She's the obvious pick and looks tough to beat. She'll have blinkers on to dissuade her habit of stopping after taking the lead, Trainer Randy Morse said in Oaklawn Notes.
Above Fashion. This filly has the most experience and likes to hit the board, but she was soundly defeated in the graded race at Delta Downs.
Alien Giant. Santa Anita shipper has a sparkling work on the track. We do not discount Santa Anita shippers at Oaklawn.
So after all of that verbiage, what to bet?
I mainly bet $1 Pick 3s and try to keep my investment at $8 or less. If I fail at handicapping and can't narrow my picks, I'll either spend more (grrr) or revert to a 50-cent Pick 3.
My $1 ticket for Friday = $8
Race 6: Admiral Shepard; Scissors and Tape
Race 7: Alsvid; Cinco Charlie
Race 8: Durango; Above Fashion
p.s. TGIF