Don’t like the favorite? Time to seize the day.

Among my favorite angles in handicapping is finding a suspect favorite and taking advantage by picking the most likely horse for the upset(s). If you aren't crazy about the favorite and they are tracking very low odds, it's a good opportunity to make serious money. But to use this angle, you must first have suspicion of the favorite.

That wasn't how things set up for me Monday with the 1-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. I thought that Toews on Ice, the 3-year-old colt shipped in for the race by trainer Bob Baffert, looked like a reasonable favorite. His resume topped the field, he had good speed figures and he had the Baffert factor. It's not like I was sure he would win, but I also wasn't sure of making money by choosing another.

Another day of being wrong. How will I cope? Toews on Ice, the 3/5 favorite, finished sixth.

Ultimately, my single bet was $10-to-place on Synchrony, the horse I was pulling for to win the race. I was close; Synchrony showed. My husband did think Toews on Ice was a suspect favorite, and picked Discreetness. He would have bragging rights had he remembered to place the bet. But by the time he left Oaklawn with my American Pharoah bobble horse and hit the road back to Fayetteville (prior to the running of the Smarty Jones) he forgot. We could sell the bobble on eBay to make up the difference. Nah!

Discreetness paid $20.20, an astonishing sum considering that had Toews on Ice not entered, he would been my choice as the favorite. With a payout like that, you don't have invest a lot to get back a lot. For a small-time bettor like me, that's the ballgame.

This angle works best when the betting public is so nutty over the favorite that it creates unrealistically high overlays on several other horses.

My ultimate story of this goes back to the 2012 Louisiana Derby, although granted, the winner was as unlikely as they come. I didn't think much of the favorite, Mark Valeski, from the races leading up to the Louisiana Derby. I really like Larry Jones, his trainer, but I didn't see Mark Valeski as all that. I was watching the pre-race broadcast online and had handicapped another horse for a small win bet. Mark Valeski, however, was soaking up all of the money and the other horses' odds were going bonkers. As the horses left the paddock, the color commentator suggested that bettors looking for a live longshot might consider Hero of Order, as he looked good and had risen to 80-to-1 odds.

From studying the form, I knew Hero of Order had placed fifth in the Le Comte and fourth in the Risen Star, the Louisiana Derby preps. Suspect favorite, props from the color girl ... I placed another bet, $2 to win on Hero of Order.

What a weird race. By post time, Hero of Order's odds had risen to 109-to-1. But I didn't even notice that. I watched gleefully as he nearly wired the field. The payout ended up being just under $220. 

Let's all be looking out for our next suspect favorite. You can't bet this angle too liberally, though. Many times, a favorite is the favorite for all the right reasons.

Other thoughts after Oaklawn Park's opening weekend:

• The track was playing fair. I didn't keep stats, but I did see speed, pace and closers all doing their thing and winning. That's good. Doesn't mean it will be like that all season, or even next weekend, but good so far.

• Longshots abounded, especially in the feature races. This gives us a lesson of forgiveness in handicapping. Sometimes you must forgive a lot to hit a longshot.

• The new HD broadcast system makes watching from home much easier. Graphics clearly show the horses' names, post positions and odds. Ah. Will make watching at the track easier as well.

• My girl Fuhriously Kissed, featured in Saturday's blog, ran big! She's still a maiden, but she overcame a troubled start to be up for place. “Rallied smartly through traffic” said the chart caller. Very hopeful for her next out, but she won't be at long odds again. I bet $10 to place on her for a return of $50.

• My other Saturday comments were on target. I didn't hand out any sure winners, but you could have hit a few bets by taking them into account.

• My Friday picks stunk it up. The closest I got was with Durango, the favorite in Friday's Dixie Belle, who ran second. Which is why we get back on the horse and try again, huh?

Next up is Oaklawn Park's Saturday feature, the American Beauty.