A Southwesterly trip down memory lane

I love it when a horse who was overlooked by bettors springs a surprise victory. This is true even when I'm one of the bettors doing the overlooking. Such was the case Jan. 6 when Marquee Miss won the 1-mile Martha Washington Stakes, the first race in Oaklawn Park's series for 3-year-old fillies. Even Marquee Miss's trainer, Ingrid Mason, called the win “a shocker.” Like me (as a handicapper), Mason was a bit unsure of Marquee Miss's ability to go two turns. She hadn't done well in her first two attempts during 2015 at Keeneland. But Mason did have a possible explanation. “She's a big filly. I think the big horses take a little longer to mature,” she said in Oaklawn Notes. On the win, Marquee Miss paid $26.20.

Marquee Miss's next stop is the Honeybee Stakes on March 12. We don't know yet how she will continue to mature. Competition will get tougher as the weeks pass. That's part of what makes the early spring of each horse racing season so exciting: the emerging promise of 3-year-olds.

With this in mind, we are just hours away from the traditional beginning of Oaklawn's 3-year-old series for colts, the Southwest Stakes. Run at a distance of 1 1/16^th miles since 2013, it's where the stars begin to separate themselves.

I am deep in Southwest memories. When the race was still at 1 mile in 2004, we watched from the apron as Smarty Jones was loaded, reared up and bumped his head on the starting gate. It was a scary moment considering he had been critically injured hitting his head while learning to load in the gate as a 2-year-old. In contrast, in 2005, Lawyer Ron stood so calmly waiting to be loaded that he looked like he might fall asleep. I didn't have Lawyer Ron, having picked Steppenwolfer.

I don't remember why I loved Old Fashioned so much. Because he was gorgeous? Because he was campaigned by Eight Belles' people? Because he had the most glamorous, thick tail of any colt who ever raced? I cherished his win in 2009 and made him my Kentucky Derby horse — except he didn't make it there, sidelined by injury.

Then there was Conveyance in 2010. I put my first big win bet on this colt, $20 I think? He was so beautiful coming around the turn. Dappled gray, wearing the robin-egg blue number 9. Time slowed and he seemed to be running alone, lengths ahead of the field. I felt so smart. When I watched the race again on video, I realize he was really about two lengths ahead. His margin narrowed near the finish, but he nailed the win. He was the spectacular leader for nearly a mile of the Kentucky Derby before fading to 15^th.

I had a hard time choosing between Archarcharch and Elite Alex in 2011, finally choosing triple-A, who I also made my Kentucky Derby horse. 2013 brought the crazy thunderstorm that resulted in the likes of Fear the Kitten (2^nd) finishing ahead of Will Take Charge (6th). (Super Ninety Nine was the winner.)

In 2014, I came from a work meeting and barely got to the track in time. Seeing the horses in person is always different than watching from home. Physically, Tapiture, Strong Mandate and Ride on Curlin were the clear contenders. I picked Strong Mandate, the only one of the three who didn't go on to do much. Sometimes your favorites just don't blossom. Last year, it was fun catching a glimpse of D. Wayne Lukas congratulating trainer Ron Moquett for beating him with Far Right.

Who will it be this year? Which 3-year-old will step up and improve? Who will win the beauty contest? And will the winner make an impact on this year's Kentucky Derby? It's time to try to figure it out. But I spent so long reminiscing (watching videos, looking at programs and photos) that I've nearly run out of time to look at this race. I'm apparently expected at work at 9 a.m. Monday.

So I have one quick piece of wisdom from closely watching Oaklawn Park's feature races thus far this season. Do not discount a horse with a win over the track. Don't do this even if your calculations tell you otherwise. Marquee Miss is one example. La Macchina, winner of the Essex on Saturday, is another. In this field chock-full of shippers, there are four: Discreetness, Whitmore, Cutacorner and War Stroll.

I hope whoever does win this edition of the Southwest is a good one. I'm known to take away a Kentucky Derby horse from the Southwest, committing early.