Trick or Treat? Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Preview

Reporting live from Kentucky ... Oh, it feels so good to be in the land of bluegrass. The leaves are changing, the air is cool, the track is heating up, it is Breeders’ Cup week at last! The field for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is set so it is time for my final predictions. Since the race will take place on Halloween there is no better way to analyze the field than by doing some trick-or-treating!

1- Fioretti- TREAT

I believe this girl is the real deal. She surprised a lot of us in the Thoroughbred Club of America. Perhaps I am so high on her because of the storylines surrounding this horse. She is a feel good story all around that I really hope to see end on a high note. This mare has flashed talent before and seems to peaking at just the right time. Betting aside, I always have to root for the underdog to triumph! A win at the highest level of racing would be a real treat! 

2- Dame Dorothy- TRICK

Talk about hard to trust?! Her win on Derby Day was spectacular, but he recent defeats have left me with a bitter taste. Her problems begin and end at the starting gate. Sprint races require a good break, which is something she has struggled with lately. She finds herself in catch up mode early and has nothing left in the tank late. If she can get things fixed at the gate, she may be the one that everyone is trying catch late, but that is a big if.

3- Taris- TREAT

She has a graded stakes win at Keeneland on her resume that demands serious consideration. She dominated the field in the seven furlong Lexus Raven Run Stakes last year. This horse is such a competitor that she still managed a second in the La Brea Stakes, even after sustaining a fracture during the race. Gary Stevens has expressed a lot of confident in this filly, which says a lot to me.

4- La Verdad- TRICK

I feel like my bag of goodies just got stolen from me. I have been high on her for months and really thought this was her race to lose. I don’t like the decision to run this past weekend at all. Regardless of how easy she won the race, a six day layoff (plus she has to ship in) is risky at this level of racing. I still expect her near the front early, but I think she will tire late. Going to have to toss.

5- Artemis Agrotera- TRICK

Happy to see her coming back. She was phenomenal last summer but really threw a clunker in this race. Only two other horses have competed in the Breeders Cup off this long of a layoff and both failed to hit the board. Her recent works show she is still in great shape, but she may need this race to shake off the rust. There is a fresher and faster crop of newcomers to this race this year, which may leave her in the dust. 

6- Super Majesty- TREAT

I love the fact that she has been at Keeneland now for a couple of weeks leading up to the race. She lit up the west coast this spring and summer and brought the show to Churchill last month. This filly has proven she belongs in this race. One to keep an eye on! She may be that full sized candy bar we all dream of!

7- Wavell Avenue- TREAT

She comes into this race as the most mysterious horse in the field. Her effort in the Gallant Bloom was great, but was it a fluke? Hard to tell what Chad Brown has hiding behind this wrapper. This is the reason why we run the race, because you just never know! I like her chances to add some value to the exotics and for that I will make her a treat!

8- Stonetastic- TRICK

Her Halloween costume should a NASCAR driver because speed is something she has plenty of! She set a blistering pace in last year’s race and returns to get revenge. It is a little concerning that her last start was an Allowance Optional Claimer, but sometimes that is what the schedule dictates. She has enjoyed two full months off and should come out fresh, but can she hang on to reach the checkered flag?

9- Sweet Whiskey- TRICK

One of the few times I will pass on whiskey! This Pletcher-runner has been average at best during 2015. She lacks the closing punch to compete regardless of where she finds herself entering the stretch. I am not expecting much from her in this race.

10- Kiss to Remember- TRICK

This filly burned me at Sam Houston earlier this year, a loss I still “remember”! I liked her a lot heading into the Houston Ladies Classic but she failed to do much. Since that time she has been one of seven and just seems to be a good horse. In order to win in the Breeders’ Cup, you need to be great. She seems to finish well, but I just think she will be too far back in this one to make much noise.

11- Judy the Beauty- TREAT

She is winless since her win in this event one year ago. However, she has hit the board in all three attempts and is not as bad as it may look on paper. I had a tough time deciding on where to place her this year. She is sort of like the gum you find in your trick-or-treat basket, not the most appealing but still comes in handy at the right time! The good news for her is this race is seven furlongs, which is where she is at her best. Never count a champ, no matter how beat down they might appear!

12- Room for Me- TRICK

Graded stakes have not been her friend and I see no reason why that trend will change here. Similar to Kiss to Remember she is a good horse but just not on the same level with others in this race. I would not be shocked to see her sneak in for a piece of the exotics, but that should be about all.

13- Merry Meadow- TRICK

She was the first automatic qualifier for this race with her win in the Princess Rooney. She is a hard one to trust. After winning three of four, she looked awful in her last start at Saratoga. Her ceiling seems to be around the grade III level, which is nothing to scoff at. Personally, I will be cheering for trainer Mark Hennig to finally achieve a BC win, but it will take a monster effort to make that happen.

14- Cavorting- TREAT

If this race was being run at Saratoga, she would probably be my top pick. This will be only her second trip outside the state of New York and the last time did not go so well. That being said, I still think she has a great shot at hitting the board in this race. She is older and more mature this go around and seems to have really found her form. She deserves a solid look.

So now who do I pick to win?! You'll have to come back tomorrow to find out my pick for this race as well as the other BC races! What a great week and it is only getting started!