This Week's Derby Preps: David vs. Goliath
This weekend’s trio of prep races remind me of the classic David vs. Goliath scenario. Each race has a distinct favorite, or Goliath. There is El Kabeir in the Wood Memorial, Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass Stakes and Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby. I am always looking for value and while I believe all three have a great shot at claiming one more victory prior to Louisville, there are some “Davids” that stand in their way.
El Kabeir’s road to victory got easier with the defection of Far From Over this week; however, he may want to keep an eye on Frosted. This son of Tapit is looking to win the same race that his sire did in 2004, and has a legitimate shot. He is returning to Aqueduct where he broke his maiden and finished a close 2nd in last year’s Remsen. He has posted three nice works since that disappointing Fountain of Youth effort, and appears poised to overpower the giant, El Kabier, in this showdown.
Carpe Diem was impressive in last month’s Tampa Bay Derby, but is facing a better field this go around. I had a hard time deciding between Ocho Ocho Ocho and Frammento as his top challenger, but ended up going with the latter. Track conditions may not be 100%, along with a rail post, may be too much for Ocho Ocho Ocho to overcome. Frammento has been quietly improving over the winter and spring, and may be sitting on a big race. Having Gary Stevens and Nick Zito in your corner doesn’t hurt either.
Dortmund is perfect, going 5 of 5, but is this the race he loses? The Santa Anita Derby field is small but competitive. He may feel some pressure early from his stablemate to his outside, One Lucky Dane, but Dortmund has proven he has the grit to prevail. I am going to go with a true “David” in this race and say look out for Cross the Line. He is making his first dirt start but has flashed some late speed. If he gets a decent pace to run at, he may mow down these speedsters late. May being the key word!