Louisiana Derby Day Preview
I will be heading to Fair Grounds on Saturday to enjoy Louisiana Derby Day. This is my first trip to the track and I'm really looking forward to the trip! The card is comprised of 14 highly competitive races, including a number of graded events. Let’s analyze a couple of the races and see if we can’t find some value.
Crescent City Derby (R5) – This $75,000 stakes features a field of 14 state bred 3 year olds. The entire field is stretching out to 1 1/16m for the first time. I expect to see a lot of money on Cat Sup, but I have some questions at this distance. I landed on Cajun Spirit who just missed last time out. This is only his 3rd career start and should take another step forward here. Also going to throw in Four Leaf Chief for some gimmick play. This Lookin At Lucky colt has been closing with fury lately and should enjoy the extra distance.
Mervin H Muniz Jr. Handicap (R8) – One of the smaller fields of the day may be one of the competitive with seven talented runners going 1 1/8m over the turf. I believe Slumber will awaken and finally get that elusive victory. Losing by a nose to Mshawish is nothing to hang your head about. While this is this is the horse’s first start at Fair Grounds, I have no doubt he’ll be ready to stalk down the leaders late.
Fair Grounds Oaks (R9) – This race has been the launching pad for many Kentucky Oaks champions including Rachel Alexandra, Believe You Can and Untapable. I’m a Chatterbox is poised to give Larry Jones his third victory in this event. She is firing on all cylinders lately and looks phenomenal right now on and off the track. Her bloodlines suggest she may struggle a bit at this distance, but after that closing effort last time out, I am not too concerned with her ability to stretch out. If you haven’t already, check out my last post about her. Did you really think I could pick anyone else?! J
New Orleans Handicap (R10) – Moreno, Albano, Mystery Train…holy cow this is one heck of a race! Even with all those talented names in the gate, I am going to look to Red Rifle for the win. I may be crazy but sometimes you gotta be in this sport! He was wide throughout in the Mineshaft Handicap, which shouldn’t be an issue this time out drawing the inside post. Geroux returns aboard the Hawthorne Gold Cup winner and should take him out to a fair and honest pace, saving enough for a late kick.
And now to the main event! The 102nd of the Louisiana Derby is the 11th race on the card and has a field of nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls. The top 4 from the Risen Star will be returning for an encore performance, so let’s take a look below.
PP | Horse | Comments |
1 | He would be a bit of a surprise to me. He is going to need to sit back and let the race come to him for any chance. | |
2 | Mr. Z | Always the groomsman and never the groom! Can the extra 1/16th help him find that Mrs. Z he has been looking for? I'm not so sure. |
3 | This is a major step up in class for this horse. I believe he may be better suited for 1 turn events. | |
4 | He has hit the board in all of his starts on dirt. I am still trying to figure him out. Going to stay away from the flame. | |
5 | It will not be paradise for the connections here, especially with speed to his inside, he may get pressed wide and fail to do much. | |
6 | I don't like the jockey carousel as he gets his 4th different in 5 starts. I do like the added distance he gets here. | |
7 | A lot of people are "keen" on this colt after that closing effort in the Risen Star. He should come closing again, but I don't think he'll get to the line first. | |
8 | He tired coming home at 1 1/16m, which does not bode well for this event. It will be his early fractions that set the plot for this race. | |
9 | He has been in my top 5 for a majority of the year. He is 2 for 2 at Fair Grounds and I am looking for the hat trick in this race. He should lead that closing charge home. |