Belmont Stakes (without a Triple Crown on the line) = Big Bucks
In regards to payouts, the Kentucky Derby is often the biggest feast of the year. Although the past couple have left many hungry for more, I think the next feast may be sooner than expected!
With no Triple Crown dreams this year, the Belmont Stakes is all about getting the biggest bang for my buck. An interesting trend has developed over the past decade that brings me hope. In years with no crown on the line, an outsider usually steals the final jewel at a juicy price.
Afleet Alex is the last favorite to win the Belmont Stakes in a year without a Triple Crown bid. In fact, he is the last horse to win just one of the first two jewels and go on to victory at Belmont.
Let's take a look at the last seven Belmont winners in years like this:
|
Belmont Winner |
$2 Win Payout |
|
Palice Malice |
$29.60 |
|
Union Rags |
$7.50 |
|
Ruler on Ice |
$51.50 |
|
Drosselmeyer |
$28.00 |
|
Summer Bird |
$25.80 |
|
Rags to Riches |
$10.60 |
|
Jazil |
$14.40 |
I like those numbers! That's an average win payout of just under $24.00!
How does this happen? For starters, the Belmont Stakes is a long race. These horses have never, and probably will never, race at this distance again. That leads to some unpredictable outcomes. Throw in handicappers and casual fans who often focus on the returning Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner. That leaves the door wide open for a pleasant surprise if you play your cards right!
This trend does not bode well for Exaggerator, but I’m not saying toss him just yet! However, you may want to keep these numbers in mind as you analyze the race.
Happy Belmont Week!