Five Questions Ahead of This Weekend's Action
This has to be one of the best weeks of the year. We are still talking about 3 great preps from last weekend and beginning to analyze 3 more slated for this upcoming weekend. As the number of remaining 2015 Kentucky Derby preps dwindles, many questions remain unanswered surrounding this year’s crop of three-year-olds. We answered some last weekend, but let’s take a look at some of the questions I have for this weekend’s action.
1. Will it be ‘Ocho’ de Mayo for Trainer Jim Cassidy?
Heading into last month’s San Felipe Stakes I was prepared to add Ocho Ocho Ocho to my Top 5. The horse had done nothing wrong and appeared primed for a big run. He simply failed to deliver and could miss the Derby all together if he does not run well in the Blue Grass Stakes. Jim Cassidy is one of my favorite trainers and an overall great guy, I am really cheering for him to get some redemption this weekend. I would hate to see a repeat of Brother Francis’ failed 2012 campaign for this trainer.
2. Who is the next dark horse to emerge from the shadows?
Mubtaahij and Materiality added themselves to the list of contenders after last week’s preps. It happens every year around this time. A horse that we have overlooked puts in a performance that solidifies themselves in the discussion. I have my eyes on Pepper Roani, getting an additional 1/8th in the Blue Grass and could come flying late. Or could it be Cross The Line in that small field out west?
3. Will this be the year 2 time winner Nick Zito returns to the Kentucky Derby?
He hasn’t sent a runner since that disappointing 8th by Dialed In in 2011. After Quimet’s distant 8th in the Florida Derby, his chances rest solely on upstart Frammento in the Blue Grass Stakes. Frammento closed nicely for a surprise 3rd place showing in the Fountain of Youth and looks to take another step forward on Saturday. A year without a Zito or Lukas horse? That seemed unimaginable growing up, but times change!
4. Can Bolo catch Dortmund this time around?
Bolo looked great over the dirt at Santa Anita last month, his only problem was that Dortmund looked even better. Dortmund is going for his 6th straight victory but will be stretching out to his longest distance. Could that final 1/8th be just what the doctor ordered for Bolo? Trainer Carla Gaines sure thinks so as she attempts to make her first Kentucky Derby appearance.
5. Will a closer find the winner’s circle?
There is nothing like a closer. The excitement and uncertainty are an adrenaline rush for me. None more so than on Derby Day when traffic is similar to that here in Houston! This year we have very few true closers on the road to the derby. This weekend’s favorites (El Kabeir, Carpe Diem and Dortmund) all enjoy to be near the lead throughout. Will we see one of them get run down late? The potential exists at this distance, but who that runner will be is a true guessing game. Gotta love racing!