Who Will Step Up to Win the Jockey Club Gold Cup?

The field for the $1,000,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) has a lot of back class, but most of the group has had trouble finding its way to the winner’s circle of late. Tonalist, the 6-5 morning line favorite has four wins at Belmont Park that include last year’s Belmont Stakes and Gold Cup, but he has not finished first since the Westchester (G3) on May 2^nd.

Half of this Jockey Club Gold Cup field are millionaires and five out of six of them are graded stakes winners, but at the same time their recent form is shaky at best. Thus, it seems that picking any horse to win this race will require a leap of faith.

Wicked Strong [ML 6-1, Rosario, Jerkens], with career earnings of more than $1.7 million, has not won a race since the Jim Dandy (G2) in 2014. After getting nosed out in last year’s Travers by his stable mate V. E. Day and then losing his rider, Rajiv Maragh, in Tonalist’s Gold Cup victory, Wicked Strong has been finishing in the money and collecting nice sized checks, but not finding the winner’s circle.

The speedy Coach Inge [ML 5-1, I. Ortiz Jr., Pletcher] who is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees in this race, won the Brooklyn Handicap (G2) on the Belmont Stakes day and since then has a third in the Suburban (G2) and a second in the Woodward (G1) behind the even faster Liam’s Map. This son of Big Brown has the talent and the class to win the Gold Cup.

The other Pletcher runner is Constitution [ML 3-1, Castellano, Pletcher], whose last victory came in February in the Donn (G1) at Gulfstream Park. He was away for seven months after that win and came back in Bernard Baruch (G2) on the Saratoga turf. It would be very easy to draw a line through that grass experiment and look for this millionaire to run better on Big Sandy.

The New York-bred Effinex [ML 6-1, J. Alvarado, Jerkens] last won on the fourth of July when he beat Tonalist by a nose in the Suburban at Belmont Park. In the Woodward he was not competitive, finishing fourth, after misbehaving very badly at the starting gate. Add in another graded stakes win at Aqueduct in the spring and we have another horse that is more than capable of handling the mile and a quarter of the Gold Cup.

Looks to Spare [ML 30-1, D. Parker, DiPrima] is the only horse who won his last start, but that came at Mountaineer in the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes. This Illinois-bred has recency, but lacks the class of the rest of the field.

Tonalist‘s [ML 6-5, Velazquez, Clement] career has been a bit of a mystery, an enigma, a conundrum. His terrific 2014 wins in the Belmont Stakes and the Jockey Club GC keep me wondering what is going on in 2015. With blinkers on for two races and then blinkers off for the next two and lots of close calls, there is no way that I can be confident that the Christophe Clement trainee will bring enough to defend his Gold Cup crown. The son of Tapit is at his best on Big Sandy and the ten furlongs gives him a better chance to run down the tiring horses.

There is plent of rain forecast in the New York area between now and Super Saturday, so it is likely that the track will be wet, probably sloppy. Looks to Spare appears to dislike a wet track with a bad performance the last time he was on the slop. Constitution has limited experience when there is moisture in the track. He had one start on a good Belmont track where he finished fourth in an allowance race.

There is no question that Tonalist is the horse to beat in the JCGC. He loves Belmont and has run well on a sloppy track, but at 6-5 and only one win this year, I have to use others in the race. I like Coach Inge hoping that the wet going will help him carry his speed for the 10 furlongs and Effinex because he has the right running style in this field.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup will go as the tenth race, the last leg of the all-graded stakes Pick 4, with a 5:28pm ET post time.

The Super Saturday Schedule

Race 5 – The $400,000 Kelso (G2) – 1 mile

Race 6 – The $500,000 Flower Bowl (G1) – 1 ¼ mile TURF

Race 7 – The $400,000 Frizette (G1) – 1 mile

Race 8 – The $500,000 Champagne (G1) – 1 mile

Race 9 – The $500,000 Hill Prince (G3) – 1 1/8 mile TURF

Race 10 – The $1,000,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) – 1 ¼ mile